Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=2/21/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=U-S/ CHINA/ NORTH KOREA

NUMBER=5-53146

BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

VOICED AT:

/// EDITORS NOTE: The text is written to hold up through Powell's trip. Please adjust the intro accordingly. ///

INTRO: As Secretary of State Colin Powell travels to Tokyo, Beijing and Seoul seeking a unified approach to the problem of North Korea's nuclear program, analysts say China now has an opportunity to take a more active diplomatic role in resolving the crisis. V-O-A's Stephanie Mann has more on Beijing's choices.

TEXT: China and North Korea -- two communist neighbors -- have had a close relationship dating back to the Korean War in the 1950's, when Chinese troops were allied with the North against South Korean and U-S-led United Nations forces.

But Beijing's ability to influence Pyongyang has waned in recent years, as China adopted economic reforms and established relations with North Korea's adversaries, including South Korea. China has urged Pyongyang to adopt similar reforms, but the North has mostly resisted. And China specialist June Teufel Dreyer says, China does not have as much influence over North Korea as many outsiders believe.

/// DREYER ACT ONE ///

They will say things like: "China and North Korea are as close as the lips and the teeth." But there have been a lot of times when the teeth were grating on the lips.

/// END ACT ///

Professor Dreyer, who chairs the political science department at the University of Miami, says China has limited options for influencing North Korea.

North Korea's troubled economy gets an estimated 90 percent of its fuel imports and 40 percent of its food imports from China. China security specialist Phillip Saunders says some U-S policymakers think China should use that aid as leverage to help resolve the dispute over North Korea's nuclear program.

/// SAUNDERS ACT ONE ///

What some in the United States hope is that China will get tough on North Korea -- that it will suspend the aid, or threaten to suspend its aid -- and that that will pressure Pyongyang to bring them to the negotiating table on U-S terms. The problem is, the Chinese are very reluctant to do that because ... they don't think it will necessarily work. They worry that, if you back North Korea into a corner, then they may behave in an unpredictable and possibly dangerous manner.

/// END ACT ///

North Korea announced it was re-starting its nuclear facilities in violation of a 1994 agreement. It has withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and has threatened to abandon the 1953 truce that ended the Korean War. Pyongyang wants direct talks with Washington, and it wants the United States to sign a pledge of non-aggression against the North.

The United States says North Korea's nuclear program is a threat to the region, so the issue should be handled through a multilateral approach. China has repeatedly said it wants a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, but it also says Pyongyang and Washington should engage in direct talks to resolve the standoff.

Mr. Saunders, director of the East Asia Non-proliferation Program at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, says some in Washington think the North Korean nuclear problem will go away only when the government in Pyongyang changes. But he says China does not want that kind of change because of the instability it would cause. Professor Dreyer views the matter similarly.

/// DREYER ACT TWO ///

They would like to keep North Korea from collapsing, because, if it should collapse, they are going to have a horrible problem with refugees. And they already have a horrible problem with refugees from North Korea. It would look ever so bad, if they have to start pushing back starving elderly and children and women, and so on.

/// END ACT ///

Professor Dreyer says China would like to take a larger diplomatic role, but Beijing's leaders worry that pressure on Pyongyang might backfire.

/// OPT /// Phillip Saunders says one option is for China to work with the United States to convene a conference that includes representatives from all the countries in the region, but that also allows for direct talks between North Korean and U-S officials. Professor Dreyer doubts that North Korea would agree to such an arrangement. /// END OPT ///

Mr. Saunders says there is a debate within China over how and when to best use its limited leverage on North Korea.

/// SAUNDERS ACT TWO ///

And some of the people in the debate are saying, "China ought to take a more active role, and we ought to take a tougher line on North Korea, because it is North Korea that has caused this crisis, and the potential implications for China, if things go very badly, are really negative."

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Saunders says China may decide that, instead of using its leverage at the start, just to get Washington and Pyongyang to the table, it might be better to wait and use its influence later, to get North Korea to sign on to whatever agreement emerges, and to live up to the new commitments.

/// REST OPT ///

China specialist Bonnie Glaser says Chinese government officials expect the United States to recognize that the only way to resolve the issue is for Washington to talk directly to Pyongyang about it. Ms. Glaser, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, has been in China for the past two weeks, talking with officials and scholars there about the North Korean crisis.

She says China is becoming increasingly irritated with Pyongyang as it ratchets up the tension with Washington, and, she says, that may prompt Beijing to take a tougher stance toward North Korea. But Ms. Glaser says China rules out imposing sanctions, unless it becomes obvious that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is determined to make his country a nuclear power. (Signed)

NEB/SMN/FC/TW