Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=FEBRUARY 19, 2003

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=JOHN HOOG/N. KOREA NUKES

NUMBER=3-546

BYLINE=VICTOR BEATTIE

DATELINE=

INTERNET=

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HOST: North Korea has threatened to pull out of the Korean War truce because of what it sees as possible U-S military sanctions. A statement published Tuesday by North Korea's official news agency accused the United States of planning to break the 1953 armistice by setting up a naval blockade around the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang says such a move comes just short of an open declaration of war. A White House spokesman says the North Korean threat is nothing new and part of what he called "a predictable pattern" of escalating rhetoric.

North Korea calls Washington's refusal to agree to bilateral talks "illogical," saying such a stance is increasing the military threat in the region. Pyongyang says it wants the talks in order to sign a formal nonaggression pact with the United States. U-S officials say the U-S Congress would not approve such a deal because North Korea reneged on its 1994 agreement to freeze its nuclear program.

John Hoog (hoe-g) is deputy editor of the English version of "JoongAng Daily" based in Seoul. Mr. Hoog is a former member of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, KEDO, the consortium set up as part of the 1994 nuclear agreement. He spent three years in North Korea as part of KEDO. Mr. Hoog says it appears the Bush Administration's tough stance has some merit in line with Pyongyang's recent rhetoric:

MR. HOOG: There is some merit to it. The history of North Korean diplomacy is indeed filled with attempts to blackmail other countries into aid and to recognition, into doing what North Korea wants to. As one friend of mine commented a couple of weeks ago, the North Koreans are much more comfortable working at the edge than most other governments would be.

That having been said, though, the problem is that the North Koreans have the ability to follow up on their so-called blackmail and to do things that are indeed substantively worrying to the rest of the world. The threats to throw out the IAEA inspectors, the threats to restart the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, have been followed through on.

So, the question really is how firm can the U.S. continue to be in saying that it's not going to reward North Korea for its bad behavior before North Korea goes ahead and behaves badly, in ways that could have extremely serious repercussions for the whole area.

MR. BEATTIE: What does North Korea want, do you think?

MR. HOOG: I think probably they want it all. They want good relations with the United States. They want more standing in the international community. And they want a nuclear weapons program. That's why I don't think you can decide, ah, they are using this nuclear program only as a threat to get the United States to come through with more recognition and more aid. Or, on the other hand, they are going for nuclear weapons and they don't really care what the rest of the world thinks about them. The truth, I think, is that they're after both. And they're opportunistic, they'll take whatever they can get.

MR. BEATTIE: Where does North Korea's nuclear program stand now, do you think?

MR. HOOG: Washington seems to have arrived at a consensus now that the North Koreans probably have one or two nuclear weapons. I'm not sure that's correct. And I wouldn't want to make that assumption. The problem is that neither can you assume the opposite. You can't base policy on a determination that the North Koreans don't have any nuclear weapons. So, that uncertainty certainly adds to the problems.

None of us are privy to the intelligence that's coming out of the satellites, but it does not appear that the North Koreans yet have taken any steps to restart the nuclear fuel reprocessing laboratory that they have. It will also take some time, I think, for them to restart the Yongbyon nuclear reactor. That thing has been idle since 1994 and, after rusting in peace for all these many years, I think it will probably take some time -- months -- before they would be in a position to restart it.

And after that, it will take quite an extended time of operating to get any used fuel rods that could be reprocessed. So, there is some time yet for diplomacy, but not all that much.

And again, just like this threat to abandon the Armistice, the threat to reopen that processing laboratory and to pull the spent fuel rods out of the storage pond, where they are now, and get more plutonium, would be another very serious development. So, the North Koreans still have more of these cards to play, whether it's tactical or whether they are intent on pushing ahead. Whatever the state of the diplomatic efforts to slow it down, I don't think anybody can really say.

HOST: John Hoog is deputy editor of the English language version of the "JoongAng Daily" in Seoul with a circulation of about 20-thousand. The Korean version is among the top three South Korean newspapers.

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