Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=2/13/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=ALEX VATANKA

NUMBER=3-540

BYLINE=REBECCA WARD

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

/// EDITORS: THIS INTERVIEW IS AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///

HOST: China and Russia have warned against United Nations Security Council involvement in the North Korean nuclear issue. The Russian Foreign Ministry Thursday called the International Atomic Energy Agency decision to refer the matter to the Security Council premature and counterproductive. China voted with the agency in favor of passing the matter on to the Security Council. But Chinese officials warn Security Council involvement may further complicate the issue -- and that the only solution is face-to-face talks between Washington and Pyongyang.

Alex Vatanka (vuh-TANK-uh) is the editor of Jane's Sentinal Security Assessment in London. He tells News Now's Rebecca Ward that turning the issue over to the Security Council is not likely to adversely affect relations with North Korea because it didn't have much of a relationship with the international community anyway. And, he says, the United Nations is not likely to sanction Pyongyang either.

MR. VATANKA: The Chinese, the Russians, are strongly in favor of continuing on this sort of path, the so-called diplomatic path. The Americans have come out and said they do not [sic] favor economic sanctions being imposed on the North Koreans. And the North Koreans, sort of true to form, have said that economic sanctions, extensive economic sanctions, on North Korea would equal a declaration of war. That is the kind of language that we are getting used to, coming out of North Korea. But I don't think there is much desire right now, particularly within the region -- bearing in mind the South Koreans and Japanese as well in this context -- there isn't really a desire to confront North Korea. And I think it's probably because there is so little information and understanding available in terms of how the North Korean leadership would react. The North Koreans are probably some of the better ones to catch the international community by surprise, and I don't think right now it's the time to play some sort of a tough game with North Korea.

MS. WARD: And North Korea has intimated that it could hit the United States with a long-range missile. What is its capability?

MR. VATANKA: To put this in perspective, the North Koreans have eight different types of ballistic missiles. They are, in turn, divided into three types: the short-, medium- and long-range missiles. As far as the long-range missile is concerned, if you wanted to see whether they are capable of hitting the continental USA, that missile is not available. To our best knowledge, to the information that I have, that is not available. So, to some extent, I was surprised to hear the CIA Director George Tenet come out and say that that was something that he was very concerned about. We know they have the technology. And we know that they have a missile, the Dong-II, which could, if modified and if tested. We have to emphasize here, the best missile they have at their disposal has not been tested. And last time they tested something similar, it didn't actually have the best of results. And this missile, the Dong-II, if it was tested and it proved to be successful, would have a range of up to 6,000 kilometers. In effect, it wouldn't even be able to hit Alaska, never mind Hawaii or the continental USA. But again, it is important to note that once the technology is there, nothing would stand in the way of North Korea enhancing this ability and, within perhaps a relatively short period of time, being able to hit the continental USA. But right now there is sufficient evidence to suggest that they have this type of technology.

MS. WARD: What is North Korea's motivation for this standoff? It is in desperate need of aid and this seems somewhat counterproductive. What do they want out of it?

MR. VATANKA: I think the North Koreans were quite upset when George Bush put them in that category of axis of evil states. Prior to that -- and I've spoken to a lot of South Koreans -- prior to that, there was a sense that there might be sort of a way forward here. Some people would disagree, and some people would say, no, that wasn't the case. All the South Koreans could do was provide North Korea with aid and financial assistance and any type of concession, and in return receiving very little or nothing. And this was recognized, some would argue, by the Bush administration, who decided that the way forward here is not to provide concessions but meet the challenge when it came to North Korea. The North Koreans, perhaps fearful that they could be the next target after Iraq, decided that while the U.S. was busy engaged, confronting Iraq and all the problems that it has had convincing the international community that what it's trying to do with Iraq is correct, thought this was the best time. America was, to some extent, under a lot of pressure internationally. And if North Korea was going to gain anything, this was the time that it had to sort of play up its threat of, again, nuclear brinkmanship.

HOST: Alex Vatanka (vuh-TANK-uh) is the editor of Jane's Sentinal Security Assessment in London. He spoke to News Now's Rebecca Ward.

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