Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=2/11/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=NORTH KOREA - INTERNATIONAL OPTIONS

NUMBER=5-53110

BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

VOICED AT:

///// UPDATE INTRO AS NEEDED. THE TEXT SHOULD HOLD UP AFTER THE IAEA MEETING. /////

INTRO: The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to announce Wednesday that it is referring the dispute over North Korea's nuclear program to the U-N Security Council. Is that step likely to ease or heighten tensions? V-O-A's Stephanie Mann reports.

TEXT: The Security Council has several options. It could approve a resolution condemning North Korea's resumption of a nuclear-weapons program, demand a halt to the nuclear program or impose sanctions such as a trade embargo. The Security Council could also authorize military action, such as a naval blockade.

North Korea has said it would view international sanctions as a declaration of war.

Korea specialist Bill Drennan, at the United States Institute of Peace, says most countries in the region seem to prefer diplomatic pressure instead of sanctions.

/// DRENNAN ACT ONE ///

South Korea is firmly opposed to them. Japan does not seem to be a hotbed of support for economic sanctions. And quite frankly, I think the (Bush) administration is not looking for sanctions at this point. ... Now, that may change if North Korea continues to up the pressure.

/// END ACT ///

The United States confronted North Korea in October with evidence that it is violating a 1994 agreement to halt its nuclear weapons program. North Korea then expelled international weapons inspectors and restarted its shuttered nuclear facility. It wants direct talks with the United States and wants Washington to sign a non-aggression treaty.

The United States rejects that demand, saying the North must stop its nuclear program. Washington also says the North's nuclear program threatens the international community so the issue should be handled multilaterally. South Korea and China are opposed to North Korea's nuclearization, but they want Washington to engage in direct talks with Pyongyang.

Joel Wit, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says U-N sanctions are unlikely to have the desired impact on North Korea's nuclear agenda.

/// WIT ACT ONE ///

They will not care. All of these steps are happening in some haphazard fashion that will have no impact on them whatsoever. What is needed here is some glue to pull together all of these different tracks. And that glue is the United States. Even further, the glue is for the United States to say, "We will sit down with North Korea and have a dialogue." That will pull it all together. Then it will make sense to go to the United Nations and get tough measures from the United Nations.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Wit says the Bush administration has painted itself into a corner, leaving itself no option except to hope that North Korea will change course.

/// WIT ACT TWO ///

The administration thinks that if it outwaits the North Koreans, that they will give in. So the administration will not submit to their brinksmanship. Well, you know, the North Koreans are very able to go right over the cliff. /// OPT /// If the administration does not put together a coherent policy, the North Koreans are going to become a growing nuclear weapons state, and then we are going to have to deal with that problem.

/// END ACT // END OPT ///

Korea specialist Gordon Flake says the Bush administration has decided that North Korea has proven negotiations will not make it change course. Mr. Flake, director of the Mansfield Center for Pacific Affairs, says President Bush has chosen to build a multi-national coalition to increase pressure on North Korea.

/// FLAKE ACT ///

I actually think they are very far down that road in terms of trying to get the Chinese on board and others on board to tighten the noose on North Korea and then - in the best case scenario for them - get China to agree to pull the plug in oil and food and other key supplements they give to North Korea, in an effort to spark a collapse of the regime.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Flake says China has not been willing to cut off food and fuel aid to North Korea because it fears a massive influx of refugees and instability. If Washington pledges to help Beijing handle those problems, he says the Bush administration may get China's cooperation.

/// BEGIN OPT /// Some members of Congress have criticized President Bush's handling of the Korean problem, accusing the administration of inaction. But Bill Drennan says the president's foreign policy staff are hard-nosed realists and understand the severity of the issue, and he expects they will handle it well.

/// DRENNAN ACT TWO ///

They do not want to repeat the mistake of allowing North Korea to retain the initiative and to blackmail us and the rest of the community with their threats. That's a tactical explanation for why they have so far resisted North Korea's demands that it engage bilaterally with Pyongyang on this issue to the exclusion of everybody else. So, while tactically I think that's sound, the open question is: is it strategically sound and sustainable? And there, the picture is very murky and I don't have an answer for that.

/// END ACT /// END OPT ///

Gordon Flake says the situation is entering a dangerous phase. He worries that North Korea may miscalculate and provoke military conflict, such as launching a missile test that accidentally hits a ship or the Japanese mainland. Or, Mr. Flake says, North Korea could act on its statements that it views U-N sanctions as a declaration of war. (SIGNED)

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