Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=02/06/2003

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=NORTH KOREA/U-N SECURITY COUNCIL

NUMBER=5-53095

BYLINE=AMY BICKERS

DATELINE=TOKYO

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: The International Atomic Energy Agency will meet on February 12th to consider how to deal with North Korea's growing nuclear activity. As V-O-A's Northeast Asia correspondent Amy Bickers reports, the agency is likely to refer the issue to the U-N Security Council, which could lead to sanctions or other punitive measures against the reclusive, Stalinist state.

TEXT: The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the world's nuclear watchdog, wants the United Nations Security Council to discuss North Korea's nuclear efforts. Mohamed ElBaradei's main concern: North Korea's withdrawal from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or N-P-T, which aims to prevent the development or transfer of nuclear weapons.

/// ELBARADEI ACT ///

I have exhausted all possibilities within my power to bring North Korea into compliance. They have decided rather than coming into compliance with the safeguard agreement to move out of the N-P-T altogether.

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The I-A-E-A's governing board will discuss the issue at a meeting on February 12th. It has postponed such a gathering twice in the past two months to give North Korea the opportunity to discuss proposals on resolving the issue from Russia and South Korea. But Pyongyang outright rejected Moscow's plan and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il rebuffed a South Korean envoy, who went to Pyongyang late last month hoping to meet him.

Mr. ElBaradei's most recent statements suggest that patience is waning among some key I-A-E-A members, most notably the United States. The I-A-E-A's five permanent members - Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States - also hold veto power in the U-N Security Council.

For weeks, the United States has urged the I-A-E-A to refer the North Korea situation to the Security Council. John Bolton, a U-S undersecretary of State, laid out the Bush administration's position during his recent sweep through Asia to discuss North Korea policy.

` /// BOLTON ACT ///

When the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is violated, there is automatically a requirement that the Security Council take the matter up. The Security Council is vested by the U-N charter with dealing with threats to international peace and security and obviously North Korea's nuclear weapons programs amount to just such a threat as the Council is intended to deal with. Once it is in the Council, of course, the Council has a wide variety of political and economic and other means that it can take.

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The U-N Security Council can impose sanctions against North Korea - a move that Pyongyang says it would view as tantamount to a declaration of war. However, the Security Council is likely to first search for a peaceful solution, perhaps through mediation.

Simon Chesterman, a senior associate at the International Peace Academy in New York, sees some disadvantages to involving the Security Council in the issue. He thinks it is better to find a solution through the diplomatic efforts of South Korea, Japan, the United States and a few other nations.

/// CHESTERMAN ACT ///

It will open up the diplomatic channels to too many contradictory voices. The compromises and disputes we have seen over the sanctions against Iraq and the threat of force against Iraq are a warning note to the Bush administration that the Security Council is not the docile beast that some in the administration want the United Nations to be.

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The standoff over North Korea's nuclear program began with American assertions in October that North Korea said it had a secret enriched uranium program. That violates a 1994 accord under which North Korea was to suspend its nuclear activities. The United States then stopped fuel aid to the energy-poor North.

Since then, Pyongyang has moved to reactivate an aging nuclear complex that can generate fuel for nuclear weapons and withdrawn from the N-P-T.

Despite alarm over the North's nuclear threat, many countries are taking a soft approach toward Pyongyang, saying that gentle diplomacy may be the most effective tool. China and South Korea are two of the most vocal supporters of this approach.

South Korea's President-elect Roh Moo-hyun firmly supports rapprochement and says he will not back sanctions.

China also has said it opposes sanctions. However, analysts say China might go along with internationally authorized-sanctions, given its declining influence over the North and its worries over Pyongyang's nuclear arms.

Washington has stated repeatedly it wants a peaceful settlement, but the North has angrily lashed out at it for trying to bring the nuclear issue before the U-N Security Council. A recent editorial in an official North Korean newspaper accused the United States of using the United Nations "to do its dirty work."

Pyongyang says a solution can only be reached through direct talks with Washington and the signing of a bilateral non-aggression treaty. But the Bush administration, while open to talks, says North Korea must dismantle its nuclear program before there can be negotiations.

Some analysts say a deal - either negotiated through the Security Council or not - that gives North Korea security assurances and economic aid in turn for a commitment to once more end its nuclear program would be the best possible outcome.

While more angry rhetoric from North Korea can be expected if the issue goes to the Security Council, Pyongyang has said that the suspension of fuel supplies in December is already creating problems for its impoverished economy, indicating that it too, has an incentive to negotiate. (SIGNED)

NEB/HK/AB/KPD