Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=1/23/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=CHINA - NORTH KOREA - UN

NUMBER=5-52884

BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

/// EDITORS NOTE: PLEASE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES THAT WILL REQUIRE REVISION OF THE INTRO ///

INTRO: U-S officials say the dispute over North Korea's nuclear weapons program could be presented to the United Nations Security Council within days. As V-O-A's Stephanie Mann reports, that could pose a problem for China, depending on what course of action the Security Council decides to pursue.

TEXT: China says it does not want nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula. But Beijing could be put in an awkward position of having to choose between supporting a Security Council resolution against its longtime communist ally North Korea, or exercising its veto power to stop a resolution seen as necessary by most of the international community.

North Korea has withdrawn from the Nuclear Non proliferation Treaty, expelled international nuclear weapons inspectors, and threatened to resume missile testing. Pyongyang says it wants new talks with the United States, wants Washington to sign a non-aggression agreement and threatened that U-N sanctions would mean a declaration of war. The United States says it is willing to talk, not negotiate, with North Korea but is not about to sign a statement of non-aggression. Washington also says Pyongyang must halt efforts to restart its nuclear program.

Analyst Richard Bush is director of the Center for Northeast Asia policy studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington. He says China is concerned that a Security Council debate will only escalate the tension between Pyongyang and Washington and provoke a harsh response from North Korea.

/// RICHARD BUSH ACT ONE ///

The worst, from China's perspective would be a vote on economic sanctions against North Korea, partly because it would have to cast a vote one way or another or abstain, and bear the consequences of that. Second, if economic sanctions were imposed, it would have to carry them out. I think the challenge of diplomacy right now is to find a way that China is not put on the spot in whatever the U-N Security Council does.

/// END ACT ///

During the Clinton administration, Mr. Bush was chairman of the American Institute on Taiwan, the unofficial body that handles U-S ties with the island. He notes China currently provides a significant amount of food aid to North Korea and the bulk of that country's external fuel resources. Economic sanctions would mean cutting off that aid.

/// RICHARD BUSH ACT TWO ///

I think that China would be worried that if it tried to withhold food and fuel aid, that will only make the situation worse. It will provoke the kind of reaction that we all want to avoid.

/// END ACT ///

Richard Bush's comments are echoed by Adam Segal, a China specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

/// SEGAL ACT ONE ///

I think the Chinese are extremely worried that economic sanctions would completely destabilize North Korea, possibly causing its collapse and then causing the flow of refugees across the border into China, which is one of their primary concerns right now.

/// END ACT ///

On the other hand, Mr. Segal says China might be able to support a Security Council resolution that criticizes North Korea, demanding that it halt its nuclear program and readmit the inspectors, but one that falls short of imposing sanctions.

/// SEGAL ACT TWO ///

An international resolution that re-states everyone's arguments: we want a denuclearized Korean peninsula; we want peaceful resolution of this; the sides need to be speaking to each other. Then, Beijing could easily support that.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Segal says such a resolution would give the Bush administration more time to deal with Iraq first. But he fears a resolution without any teeth, such as sanctions, would not prompt North Korea to reverse its nuclear policy.

/// REST OPT ///

Richard Bush (of the Brookings Institution) says China is not likely to abstain from voting on a Security Council resolution concerning North Korea, as it might on a resolution about Iraq.

/// BUSH ACT THREE ///

China of course has the option of abstaining, but this is not an academic issue for them, as it is more the case with Iraq. North Korea is right on China's border. Any instability or chaos in North Korea is probably going to wash over into China and be a problem that they will have to deal with. And in that sense, North Korea is a different sort of problem for China than it is for the United States.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Bush believes Beijing and Washington do not view the nuclear threat from North Korea with the same urgency. He says China probably has a hard time understanding why the U-S government wants to get the issue before the Security Council quickly, instead of working on it patiently through quiet diplomatic channels. (Signed)

NEB/SMN/KBK/FC