|
SLUG: 3-490 Kerr KOrea
DATE: NOTE NUMBER: |
||
DATE=1/15/03 TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT TITLE=KERR KOREA NUMBER=3-490 BYLINE=SUASAN YACKEE DATELINE=WASHINGTON INTERNET= ///// AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///// HOST: Last month Pyongyang threatened to re-activate a nuclear plant capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium. Today, Wednesday, North Korea rejected a U-S offer of talks to discuss the issue. However, North and South Korea agreed to hold Cabinet level talks in Seoul next week on nuclear development. Paul Kerr, with the Arms Control Association in Washington, spoke with V-O-A Mews Now's Susan Yackee about what the communist nation is seeking: MR. KERR: What they have indicated they want is some assurance from the United States that we don't threaten their security. And I think what they want is something beyond the verbal statements that President Bush and Colin Powell and several other administration officials have made in public. Clearly those have not reassured them, and I think they want something beyond that. They keep calling for what they call a nonaggression treaty, or at least that was their demand for a long time. Now they have shifted a little bit and softened their language, and I can't remember the exact words they used, but they have suggested that they may accept something a little bit short of a nonaggression pact. But I think they do want some sort of written commitment that the United States doesn't threaten them. MS. YACKEE: As a member of the Arms Control Association, how serious is this situation? MR. KERR: It is very serious. First of all, the Non-Proliferation Treaty has been a critical component of the non-proliferation regime, which we believe has made significant contributions to preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction, although it is not perfect. North Korea is the first country that has signed it to have pulled out of that agreement. And we think that now they have the ability to produce nuclear weapons - about a half a dozen - within a matter of months. And that is now going on unsupervised. We don't know for sure that they are engaged in that, but there are no inspectors on the ground to monitor that effort. Now what they are doing is not a violation of their commitment to the international community because now they are not part of that agreement anymore. We obviously think that a North Korean nuclear program is a bad thing and could cause more proliferation in the region. And given the consequences that nuclear weapons can have when they are used, we think that this is a pretty serious move on the North Koreans' part. MS. YACKEE: North Korea historically has been very unpredictable. MR. KERR: That's right. MS. YACKEE: This certainly complicates the negotiation process. MR. KERR: I think so. It certainly raises the stakes. It escalates the possible consequences, I guess you would say, of failure to resolve this issue. MS. YACKEE: Do you think the North Korean Government would really test or use nuclear weapons in this day and age? MR. KERR: I'm really not sure what they would do. I think you are right, it is hard to believe that they would just wake up one morning and decide that the game is over and they're just going to use nuclear weapons. But, on the other hand, as you say, it is an unpredictable regime. And also, if their situation gets more dire - for example, if their economy were to get worse or their regime were to start collapsing or something like that - then it is possible that if they are in a situation with nothing left to lose they could either use those weapons or threaten to use those weapons. In addition, I think we have to worry about the possible effects this could have on other countries, like Japan, like Taiwan, like South Korea. All of those countries have expressed interest in nuclear weapons before. And if you make the neighborhood they're in more dangerous than it is, I think they will do what a lot of other rational states would do, which is try to get more weapons to enhance their security, at least from their point of view. HOST: Paul Kerr is a research analyst with The Arms Control Association in Washington. He spoke to V-O-A News Now's Susan Yackee. NEB/SY/RAE |
||
