Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=1/10/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=U-S / NORTH / SOUTH KOREA (CQ)

NUMBER=5-52841

BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

/// EDITORS: THIS SPOT HAS BEEN EDITED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS AS OF FRIDAY MORNING, INCLUDING THE RESUMPTION OF DIALOGUE AND THE NORTH'S ANNOUNCEMENT TO WITHDRAW FROM THE NPT ///

INTRO: Did pressure from South Korea help bring about the resumption of a dialogue between North Korea and the United States. Some analysts say yes. V-O-A's Stephanie Mann looks at the question in this background report.

TEXT: A Washington Post reporter said the United States made a subtle change in policy when it announced its offer to talk with North Korea. A New York Times reporter called it an abrupt shift in policy.

Larry Niksch, a specialist on East Asia with the Congressional Research Service, says it was more of a change in diplomatic tactics.

/// NIKSCH ACT ONE ///

Until this announcement, the Bush administration had taken the position with regard to dialogue with North Korea that it would not negotiate any new agreement with North Korea dealing with this secret uranium enrichment program that North Korea revealed in October. But the administration's diplomatic position also contained a second unstated tenet. And that was that the administration would also not engage in any other kind of dialogue with the North Koreans, outside of or below the level of an actual negotiation.

/// END ACT ///

Now, he says, the Bush administration is willing to engage in a dialogue but not a full-scale negotiation.

The U-S offer to talk with Pyongyang came after consultations among officials from the United States, Japan and South Korea. South Korea also sent top diplomats to Moscow and Beijing to discuss the problem.

The government in Seoul has pursued what it calls a "sunshine" policy toward North Korea, hoping that contact, cooperation, and economic aid will lead to reconciliation between the North and South. The United States has focused on the problem of North Korea's nuclear program and its history of weapons proliferation. Early in his administration, President Bush suspended talks that were underway during the Clinton administration on North Korea's missile tests and sales. And then, Mr. Bush listed North Korea with Iran and Iraq as part of an axis of evil.

Larry Niksch says the U-S shift in offering to talk with Pyongyang may have come because of pressure and criticism not only from South Korea, but also China and Russia.

/// NIKSCH CUT THREE ///

The bigger picture, too, is that the Bush administration has found itself since the end of December on the diplomatic defensive, with North Korea having the initiative as a result of North Korea's actions in restarting the nuclear installations at Yongbyon. I think the Bush administration has recognized that these North Korean actions have really placed it on the defensive and in essence have made it more difficult to secure the cooperation from other governments in dealing successfully with North Korea.

/// END ACT ///

Thomas Henriksen, a specialist on U-S foreign policy at the Hoover Institution in California, says the U-S offer to talk with Pyongyang does not mean that Washington has changed and is now listening to South Korea. Mr. Henriksen says for over a decade the United States has been allowing Seoul more freedom of action.

/// HENRIKSEN ACT ///

For example in George Bush, the first administration, he withdrew tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea, at the urging of the South Korean government so that it could better engage the North. The United States went along with that. I think the policy has been growing, both under the Clinton administration and the second George Bush, to allow the South Koreans a little more freedom.

/// END ACT ///

The director of the East Asia Management Development Center at the University of Michigan, E-Han Kim, says North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is taking advantage of the timing of current events to play South Korea, China and Japan against the United States. And Mr. Kim says President Bush unfortunately fell right into that trap.

/// KIM ACT ///

I do not disagree with Mr. Bush's statement that North Korea is an evil empire. That's true. But there is no reason and no purpose in Mr. Bush's public announcement calling for confrontation from North Korea by including them in one of the three axes of evil.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Kim, who is also a senior research fellow at the William Davidson Institute, says a serious dialogue between the United States and North Korea will be more effective if it's conducted behind the scenes.

/// REST OPT ///

Thomas Henriksen says rhetoric on both sides may heat up in the coming months, but he says that will not help North Korea if it continues to make threats against the United States.

/// HENRIKSEN ACT TWO ///

There'll be lots of charges and counter charges. But I think what the North Koreans do by this (is) they further isolate themselves in a world community, because even people who may not always favor the United States see this very bizarre administration threatening all sorts of things.

/// END ACT /// END OPT ///

Analysts agree -- no matter whether the talks are public or behind the scenes -- the difficulty will be in getting North Korea to agree to abandon its nuclear program and allow the return of international weapons inspectors. (Signed)

NEB/SMN/KBK/FC