Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=08/26/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=ASIA/EXERCISES

NUMBER=5-54215

BYLINE=KURT ACHIN

DATELINE=HONG KONG

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: A first round of what promises to be lengthy negotiations about North Korea's nuclear-weapons program is scheduled to start Wednesday in Beijing. As the talks begin, a series of U-S led air and naval exercises is being planned for next month, which could demonstrate the type of containment strategy Washington might use against North Korea if the talks fail. Kurt Achin reports from our Asia News Center in Hong Kong.

TEXT: September's planned exercises are designed to rehearse air and naval interdiction of ships believed to be carrying missiles or other weapons-related cargo. The United States says the interdiction program is not designed around any particular nation, but officials make no secret of which country might be affected.

Earlier this month, State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher said North Korea might find itself targeted by the program if it continued, in his words, "to aggressively proliferate missiles and related technologies."

The exercises are to involve the 11 nations that signed on in May to what is called the Proliferation Security Initiative. Those nations include Australia, Japan, several European countries, and the United States. The aim is to prevent North Korea from transporting missile and nuclear technology and materiel.

Washington lobbied its allies for the Proliferation Security Initiative after a North Korean ship was found last December to be transporting ballistic missiles to Yemen. Since then, North Korea has admitted to pursuing a nuclear-weapons program, and has withdrawn from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Australian Prime Minister John Howard hosted a meeting of Proliferation Security Initiative nations in July, and mentioned North Korea by name as he announced his country's participation in the exercises.

/// HOWARD ACT ///

We do not want to go to war with anybody. We will try very hard to solve it diplomatically. But North Korea is a huge challenge. It is a rogue state. It does operate outside accepted norms.

/// END ACT ///

Three months ago, Australian special forces detained a North Korean freighter carrying heroin off the Australian coast.

U-S and Australian officials say narcotics, weapons, and counterfeit money are among the chief exports the North Korean regime uses to prop up itself and its devastated economy.

On Monday in Japan, protesters voiced their suspicion when a controversial North Korean ferry arrived at the port of Niigata.

/// SFX PROTESTS, ESTABLISH & FADE ///

Japanese authorities suspect the ferry may be involved in smuggling weapons components and other contraband from Japan back to North Korea. The ship was delayed Monday from leaving Niigata until safety improvements were carried out.

Japanese government spokesman Yasuo Fukuda says the careful inspection of the ferry shows that Japan intends to hold North Korea to international standards.

/// ACT FUKUDA ///

Mr. Fukuda says Japan will inspect the ship thoroughly in accordance with international law.

Experts say the upcoming naval exercises are a signal that the international community, and not just Japan, intends to deal firmly with Pyongyang, not just on issues of weapons proliferation, but on smuggling as well.

Sam Bateman is a former Australian Navy officer and current professor of maritime security at the University of Wollongong. He says the assembled forces will probably practice tracking a simulated merchant ship, and then order it via radio to stop. If the ship does not stop, warning shots may be fired across its bow.

/// BATEMAN ACT ///

Then if the vessel still refused to stop, vessels would use disabling fire, firing at the engine room or the rudder if it was exposed. Preferably in such a way that it avoided loss of life or injury.

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/// OPT /// Professor Bateman says the ships will also practice other interdiction techniques that don't involve lethal force.

/// BATEMAN ACT 2 ///

Techniques like propeller entrapment devices, which I think is virtually a net you just drop in front of the vessel and the propeller swoops it up and locks itself.

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Professor Brendan Taylor of the Strategic and Defense Studies Center at The Australian National University says such techniques could impede North Korea's ability to transport large, easy-to-track items like missiles. But he says there will be practical difficulties.

/// TAYLOR ACT ///

For instance, with air routes between North Korea and Iran, and North Korea and Pakistan, they both travel through Chinese airspace and China of course is not a participant [in the P-S-I].

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Mr. Taylor says that without the participation of key players like China and South Korea, interdiction efforts could be severely hampered.

China, a traditional ally of Pyongyang, is hesitant to take steps that might hasten the collapse of North Korea and send millions of refugees streaming over their common border.

As for South Korea, Kim Tae Woo of the Korea Institute of Defense Analyses says public opinion is still divided about whether to engage or confront Pyongyang.

/// KIM ACT ///

In case North Korea did something more, like conduct a nuclear test or formally declare a nuclear position, South Korean public opinion would very quickly turn against North Korea.

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There are legal as well as practical obstacles to policing North Korean shipping. The experts say that in order to gain international legitimacy, the United States and its partners will almost certainly need a U-N Security Council resolution allowing them to stop and search North Korean vessels. They say permanent Security Council members Russia and China would be unlikely to support such a resolution.

But the recent military campaign in Iraq illustrates that the Bush Administration is willing to act without U-N approval on matters it considers essential to national security. (SIGNED)

NEB/HK/KA/BK/RAE