Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=7/10/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=U-S / IRAQ / KOREA

NUMBER=5-54070

BYLINE=STEPHANIE HO

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: The U-S-led war in Iraq has had a major impact on North Korea, a country believed to have the material to make at least one or two nuclear weapons. Military and academic experts say the Iraq war demonstrated U-S willingness to use its power against one of the countries President Bush named as part of the axis of evil. But some experts add that instead of being intimidated, Pyongyang is invoking the recent military conflict as the very reason it needs nuclear weapons. VOA's Stephanie Ho reports from Washington.

TEXT: Was the war in Iraq a dress rehearsal for military action against North Korea? Washington says no. But Katy Oh, of the U-S government-funded Institute for Defense Analysis, says state-run North Korean media indicate that Pyongyang would say yes.

/// OH ACT ///

In their Korean Central News Agency, as well as the Rodong Sinmun, their public media, they said this way, "In a nutshell, the Iraqi war is a test-war for the second Korean war." Very strong statement.

/// END ACT ///

Ms. Oh spoke at a recent conference in Washington, hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Asia Society and the Center for Naval Analysis.

One topic under discussion was North Korea. The country moved to the front of the world stage last October, after U-S officials said Pyongyang admitted it had a nuclear program -- a move that violates several international agreements.

Alan Romberg, of the Henry Stimson Center, a non-profit group that analyzes international security issues, says Pyongyang watched the U-S-led war in Iraq very closely.

/// FIRST ROMBERG ACT ///

What has changed, among other things and most dramatically, is the demonstration of U-S power and the will to use that power. And I think that's had a major impact on a lot of the players. It's had a major impact on North Korea, on Kim Jong-il, on the Korean Peoples' Army, and the view of the U-S threat.

/// END ACT ///

But Mr. Romberg, who has served in the State Department and as a special assistant to the Secretary of the U-S Navy, says the U-S might displayed in the Iraq war did not frighten North Korea. Instead, he says Pyongyang has become even more public about its nuclear capabilities.

/// SECOND ROMBERG ACT ///

There was a qualitative change that took place -- not just with the Iraq war -- but with the buildup to the war and the inevitability of it, which they now talk about in terms of requiring that they have what they call a nuclear deterrent.

/// END ACT ///

Panelist Victor Cha, of Georgetown University, says having nuclear weapons is one problem. But he adds that he is most concerned about the possibility that North Korea could transfer nuclear weapons to other countries -- a threat he says was made during U-S-North Korean talks in Beijing in April. Professor Cha says this is another tactic in what he describes as Pyongyang's long-standing and coercive negotiating behavior.

/// FIRST CHA ACT ///

They're playing out of the same old playbook. I mean, it's the same sort of thing -- finding out what threatens the United States the most and then trying to leverage that.

/// END ACT ///

One of the main obstacles still blocking efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis is the nature of the talks. For its part, Pyongyang wants to deal only with the United States. Washington is insisting on a multilateral process that includes China, Japan, South Korea, and possibly Russia.

Professor Cha points to the U-S-led war on Iraq, in which other countries also took part, as an example for resolving the North Korea nuclear crisis. He says Washington is counting on support from other countries in Asia -- this time to help bring about a diplomatic solution. He adds that this is despite Pyongyang's attempts to dissuade, or -- in his words -- "peel off" supporters.

/// SECOND CHA ACT ///

You try to anticipate the things the North Koreans might do to peel off members of this coalition. And it seems to me there are things that the North Koreans could do or try to do to peel off the South Koreans. Frankly, I don't know if there's anything the North Koreans could do to peel off the Japanese.

/// END ACT ///

China, a major supplier of North Korea's food and fuel, has repeatedly said it wants the Korean peninsula to be free of nuclear weapons. Beijing has recently taken a vigorous diplomatic role in trying to resolve the crisis, hosting U-S-North Korean talks in April and sending top diplomats to Washington and Moscow to discuss the issue.

On Monday in Beijing, Chinese President Hu Jintao and visiting South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun vowed to work together to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. (SIGNED)

NEB/SHO/MEM/FC