DATE=6/7/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=NORTH - SOUTH KOREA
NUMBER=5-46451
BYLINE=STEPHAINE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: When South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung goes
to Pyongyang for a summit next week (June 12-14) with
Korean leader Kim Jong-Il, it will mark the first
meeting ever between the leaders of the two Koreas.
While American analysts say the summit is a big step
forward for two countries still technically at war,
they do not expect dramatic results from the meeting,
as correspondent Stephanie Mann reports.
TEXT: Americans who closely watch developments on the
Korean peninsula say the significant thing about the
upcoming North-South summit is that North Korea agreed
to participate.
For several years, South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung
has been trying to engage the North in a dialogue with
the goal of holding a summit. Asia specialist Gordon
Flake says North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il repeatedly
rejected the South's overtures - until this time.
/// FLAKE ACT ONE ///
There's a lot of speculation as to why he would
have accepted it this time. My primary guess is
that it is tied into a need for greater contact
with the rest of the world, for greater access
to investment, aid, economic assistance from
South Korea.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Flake is executive director of the Mansfield
Center for Pacific Affairs, a Washington-based public
policy research organization.
/// OPT /// Korea was divided at the close of World
War Two when Japan was defeated, thus ending its
decades-long occupation of the Korean peninsula.
Communist North Korea was allied with the Soviet Union
and China, and the capitalist South was allied with
the United States. After a bitter war in the early
1950's, a truce was reached in 1953, but no formal
peace treaty was signed. North Korea maintained a
policy of self-reliance and cut itself off from much
of the world. Its interaction declined further with
the fall of communism in Russia and Eastern Europe and
with Beijing's establishment of relations with South
Korea in 1992. /// END OPT ///
Gordon Flake says about 10 years ago, North Korea
began trying to reach out to the rest of the world -
negotiating a treaty on non-aggression with South
Korea and joining the United Nations jointly with the
South in 1992. But then, Mr. Flake says, a series of
domestic crises, beginning with the death of the
country's ruler, forced North Korea to turn inward
again.
/// FLAKE ACT TWO ///
The death of Kim Il Sung in 1994 shook the
regime to its very core. On top of that, you
had a decade-long economic crisis, severe food
shortages and famine - all of which led a lot of
analysts to conclude that the regime was really
just focusing inwardly through that key period
in 1994 through 1999, and that it's only now in
the past nine months or so that North Korea has
had the confidence and ability to reach out
again.
/// END ACT ///
In recent months, North Korea has normalized
diplomatic relations with Italy and Australia and is
talking about opening relations with other countries,
including Japan and the Philippines.
At the end of May (less than two weeks before the
North-South summit), Kim Jong-Il made a surprise visit
to Beijing and met with Chinese leaders. Gordon Flake
says the timing of the Beijing visit is important
because it indicates that North Korea is serious about
its summit with the South. He says Kim Jong-Il
probably informed Chinese leaders about his plans for
his meeting with Kim Dae-Jung.
/// OPT /// In addition, Mr. Flake says, the trip to
Beijing probably served to deflate some of South
Korea's pride in portraying the summit with Kim Dae-
Jung as Kim Jong-Il's first meeting with a foreign
leader. /// END OPT ///
Asian security specialist Kurt Campbell says the North
Korean leader's trip to China was a way to show the
South that the North is not isolated but has friends
and supporters.
/// CAMPBELL ACT ONE ///
I think it is fair to say that North Korea asked
China for greater economic assistance and
perhaps closer military to military interaction.
The delegation that went with Kim Jong-Il was
loaded with military people to sort of
underscore the fact that that's the basis of the
relationship between China and North Korea -
this strong military bond based on previous
experience.
/// END ACT ///
For the past five years, Mr. Campbell served as the
top East Asia policy official in the U-S Defense
Department. He is now senior vice president of the
Washington-based Center for Strategic and
International Studies.
Mr. Campbell says North Korea probably wants to use
the summit with the South to explore ways it can
achieve greater economic support from Seoul. Even
though political differences and military tensions
have characterized the past five decades on the Korean
peninsula, Mr. Campbell says South Korean President
Kim Dae-Jung is probably also going to concentrate on
economic issues at the summit.
/// CAMPBELL ACT TWO ///
It is very clear that he wants to focus on
economic issues, commercial issues, on questions
of humanitarian concerns first before discussing
difficult political or security issues. I think
he's doing it exactly the right way. But I do
think we have to be careful and not have out
expectations too high.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Campbell says the most concrete results of the
meeting may be an agreement to hold another summit - a
chance for North Korea's Kim Jong-Il to visit Seoul.
Gordon Flake agrees, saying a second summit could be
held in Seoul or a third location. He says the
success of the Pyongyang meeting will really be judged
by the level of rapport the two leaders are able to
establish. (Signed)
NEB/SMN/KL/ENE-T/KL
07-Jun-2000 16:29 PM EDT (07-Jun-2000 2029 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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