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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)


March 22, 1999

U.S.-NORTH KOREA: 'SUSPICIONS STILL REMAIN' OVER KUMCHANG-RI INSPECTION DEAL

Analysts in East and South Asia, Europe and Canada expressed varied reactions to the announcement last week that Pyongyang would allow U.S. officials to inspect a suspected underground nuclear facility at Kumchang-ri, North Korea. Although many welcomed the agreement, which calls for the first inspection to take place this May, most were cautious in their assessments of North Korea's intentions and whether the deal was the result of diplomacy, "brinkmanship" or "bribery." Those who deemed that North Korea's decision to open Kumchang-ri to U.S. inspectors signaled an end to Pyongyang's "trademark" policy of "brinkmanship" were in the minority. Far more prevalent was the view that "suspicions still remained" about North Korea's determination to develop its nuclear weapons capability and that there were no guarantees that Pyongyang would not try again "to provoke...nuclear suspicions for the purpose of economic gain." Referring to a U.S. pledge earlier this month to provide an additional 500,000 tons of food aid to the North through the UN World Food Program, and to a U.S.-sponsored pilot project to improve potato growing in North Korea, a number of writers maintained that the U.S. had engaged in "potato diplomacy" in order to secure an inspections deal. Following are highlights in the commentary:

'BACK TO SQUARE ONE'?--A handful of observers in South Korea and a few in Europe greeted the inspections agreement as a "welcome" sign that negotiations "worked" with Pyongyang and would establish a "precedent" of "allowing U.S. inspections when needed." Most writers, however--including nearly all opinion-makers in available comment from Japan--argued that "solutions" to "essential problems" with North Korea still remained. Tokyo's business-oriented Nihon Keizei summed up the predominant view, saying: "Lingering suspicions still remain whether Pyongyang will comply with the latest accord." Other, such as Seoul's conservative Chosun Ilbo, judged that "all the agreement [had done] is to bring us back to the starting point [of the Geneva Agreement] again.... It is almost ludicrous that more compensation had to be paid to get the North to renew its old promise," that paper added. Others reasoned that the North Koreans have had "plenty of time" to remove incriminating evidence from the Kumchang-ri facility, and that North Korea might be "hard at work" at other secret nuclear facilities that the U.S. "had not yet spotted."

VIEWS FROM WITHIN THE HERMIT KINGDOM--While commentary from Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) did not address the Kumchang-ri agreement, several items over the past month did address security issues on the Korean Peninsula and humanitarian aid to the DPRK. A KCNA broadcast in English admitted that the "food situation this year [in North Korea]...remains very difficult," but blamed the "failure" in the agricultural sector on "imperialist machinations" and various "severe natural calamities." Other KCNA items perceived "enthusiastic war-mongering" by the "puppets" in South Korea and charged that the U.S. was fueling the "grave danger of war" on the Korean Peninsula by its "drastic" increase in defense spending.

This survey is based on 35 reports from 13 countries, February 5 - March 22.

EDITOR: Kathleen J. Brahney

To Go Directly To Quotes By Region, Click Below

|  EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC  |    |  EUROPE  |    |  SOUTH ASIA  |    |  WESTERN HEMISPHERE  |

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

NORTH KOREA: "Imperialist Machinations To Blame For Weak Economy"

Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency broadcast this in English (3/22): "[North] Korea is making persevering efforts to keep production going, put its overall economy on its orbit and stabilize and improve the standards of people's living. The abnormal production performance in the economic field and the people's unstable living are attributable to the imperialists' machinations and the severe natural calamities that have hit the country for the last several consecutive years. The imperialists have resorted to every conceivable move to isolate and stifle socialist Korea since the revival of capitalism in the erstwhile socialist countries early in the '90s.... Hardest hit by [various calamities] was agriculture. Last year alone, farming failed in tens of thousands of hectares of the cultivated land and the grain production shrank by half or even more in the country's granaries as compared with normal years. The food situation this year still remains very difficult.... The DPRK is trying to solve this food problem with a variety of food substitutes. It is persevering in its efforts to build a prosperous and powerful nation in the near future.... The DPRK has a favorable condition and environment for increased diverse economic exchange, joint development and collaboration with many other countries."

"Playing With Fire, Challenging Dialogue And Peace"

Official KCNA broadcast this in Korean (3/20): "The [South Korean] puppet war-mongers have continuously played with fire, aiming at northward aggression. On 17 March, the puppets took a military unit of the puppet army and staged a field mobilization exercise. At the same time, they integrated the public, government, and military and conducted a joint ground, air, and sea exercise around the Southern Sea [Korea Strait] for two days, babbling about the possibility of someone's infiltration.... We simply cannot neglect the puppets as they accelerate their arms build-up and grow even more enthusiastic about their powder-reeking war exercises. This is clear evidence that the puppets are mad about staging a war against us, using any means, in collaboration with foreign forces.... [The DPRK's] proposed...action calls for an extensive dialogue that critically states that the South Korean authorities must stop their military exercises against our republic.... [It] will only lead to their final downfall if the puppets definitely wish to unleash a war against us with the instigation of foreign forces. The puppets should starkly realize this and not run amok like newborn puppies that know no fear of tigers."

"U.S. Moves For Arms Buildup"

Official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) broadcast this in English (3/19): "The U.S. president, in a recent weekly radio speech and another speech on state policy, reclarified the U.S. stand on policy designed to drastically increase military spending, and the U.S. Defense Department also underscored the need for its sharp increase. [North Korean Workers' Party paper] Rodong Sinmun...today says these ill-intentioned remarks heard from the United States cannot but give rise to a new arms race and increase the danger of war.... The U.S. call for turning its troops into the 'world's strongest' combat forces with full combat posture through arms build-up hints that the U.S. military arbitrariness may get more reckless and serious in the future. The world's peace-loving people should maintain heightened vigilance against the new arms race sparked by the United States and the ensuing grave danger of war."

"Humanitarian Aid Used For Dishonest Political Purposes"

According to Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency (3/15): "The spokesman for the flood damage rehabilitation committee of the DPRK released a statement on March 15 as regards recent ill-boding moves to use international humanitarian aid to the DPRK for a dishonest political purpose. Typical of it was a recent program of the third channel of French television which slandered the socialist system in North Korea....

"We will never pardon those who dare vilify the political and socialist systems in North Korea, whoever they may be and whatever the reason. The responsibility for consequences of the recent smear campaign will lie with those who orchestrated the farce and those involved in it."

"Traitors Vie With One Another To Visit U.S., Japan"

Under the above headline, official KCNA observed (2/18): "The ruling and opposition parties of South Korea announced their plans for U.S. and Japan tours almost at the same time on February 13, according to a radio report from Seoul. The 'National Congress for New Politics,' the ruling party, is reportedly sending a delegation headed by the acting president to the United States for a week-long visit at the end of February and the president of the 'Grand National Party,' an opposition party, will visit the United States and Japan for a week from March 9. The two parties are scheduled to have huddles over 'cooperation' and 'security' with their masters. The president of the 'United Liberal Democrats,' Pak Thae Jun, left for Japan on Sunday."

SOUTH KOREA: "The Brinkmanship Game"

Ryu Kun-il said in conservative Chosun Ilbo (3/20): "Everyone is saying it is good that the Kumchang-ri talks have been resolved. True, the resolution should be welcome because it offers such positive aspects as putting an end--at least for now--to the 'crisis theory,' according to which an emergency would break out on the Korean Peninsula in March.... When we give the resolution a second look, however, we notice that all it does is bring us back to the starting point again. What happened was that North Korea dug a hole and a nervous United States had to tame North Korea all over again. That is to say that the United States gave the North a large bonus just to go back to the starting point of the Geneva Agreement, a promise the North had already made to stop its nuclear program in 1994. It is almost ludicrous that more compensation had to be paid to get the North to renew its old promise."

"North Korea's 'Stealthy' Change"

Washington correspondent Chung Yun-joo stressed in independent Hankyoreh Shinmun (3/19): "North Korea's decision to open its Kumchang-ri facility to the United States caught us by surprise. Throughout the negotiation, many tell us, the North showed a different attitude, not its trademark brinkmanship. This change, put together with other incidents, has led some people to speculate positively about the future of the North.... The North does seem safely on a path toward the socialist market economy that China chose back in the '70s.... Whether the North is changing is crucial in determining an effective North Korea policy. We would need a policy of engagement if the North really is changing. If not, we must question the validity of that policy. It does seem that the North is going through a 'stealthy' change."

"U.S.-North Korea Talks Resolved"

Former Foreign Minister Han Sung-joo opined in independent Dong-A Ilbo (3/18): "Because it is not easy to construct another facility anytime soon, the North will find it a lot harder to continue its nuclear program... Finally, the North has now created a precedent of allowing U.S. inspections when needed."

"Kumchang-Ri Talks And Reality"

Top-circulation, conservative Chosun Ilbo's editorial contended (3/18): "With the talks now resolved, the Korean Peninsula has avoided entering a tense phase.... Despite its significance, the event may well be only the first step toward resolving the issue. Also troubling is that the talks have left a precedent in which the United States gave carrots to resolve a problem triggered by the North.... The North will likely continue to provoke similar nuclear suspicions for the purpose of economic gain."

"After The Talks"

Business-oriented Joong-Ang Ilbo told its readers in an editorial (3/18): "Thanks to the resolution of the talks, military tensions have been alleviated on this peninsula. Another achievement is that the North was able to have the experience of resolving an issue through negotiation, rather than brinkmanship.... Inevitably, the event has a downside, which is...that the North could again trigger similar nuclear suspicions. Another concern is that we still have no measures to prevent similar incidents from recurring in the future."

"Welcoming The Resolution Of The Talks"

Independent Hankyoreh Shinmun's editorial stated (3/18): "While the [agreement on Kumchang-ri] is encouraging, it does not allow us to be optimistic about the prospects for resolving other issues. We still have the missile issue to resolve, and we do not know how the inspection of the Kumchang-ri facility will turn out.... In the wake of the resolution of these talks, Korea can pursue its 'package deal' plan with more enthusiasm."

"Missile Issue Stands Next"

In the editorial view of moderate Hankook Ilbo (3/18): "The resolution of the talks came as a result of compromise between the United States and North Korea, which will have a positive impact on larger inter-Korean relations.... Thanks to the success of the talks, Korea's engagement policy has won more ground. As a result of the event, Perry's report may also lean more toward the policy of engagement. In the end, it was the North's political achievement to secure 600,000 tons of food aid through negotiation. It is time for the Korean government to be more flexible over its North Korea policy."

"North Korean Nuclear Issue Concerns Everyone"

Independent Dong-A Ilbo's editorial insisted (3/17): "It makes no sense for Chinese Prime Minister Zhu to talk as if the North Korean nuclear issue is a remote problem. The truth is that it is one of the most significant issues for Asia, and one on which regional stability depends.... It is even harder to understand why the prime minister thinks any attempt by China to influence North Korea would be interfering in the North's internal affairs.... The nature of the nuclear issue should not be altered because of different national interests among major powers. North Korean issues require cooperation between the United States and China, regardless of differences they may have over other issues."

"Fine-Tuning North Korea Policy"

Seoul National University Professor Paik Jin-hyun observed in conservative Segye Ilbo (3/17): "A serious difficulty in policy fine-tuning lies ahead when our policy emphasizes engagement only. The truth is that the policy of engagement won't bring about results soon enough, and we'd better admit that policy alone cannot resolve the problem. A more realistic approach would be to have a timetable within which the North has to make a choice. Should the North reject engagement, we then must have alternatives.... The Korean government seems to believe that the North has no particular offensive motive behind its efforts to develop weapons programs. It says that as long as the government helps resolve the North's anxieties about its own security, all North Korean issues would be solved. This stance, however, is not the right way to go.... The obsession the North has shown in regards to its nuclear and missile programs is further proof that carrots alone won't work.... Discussion between Washington and Seoul must be based on reality and rationality."

"After The Kumchang-Ri Talks"

Independent Dong-A Ilbo told its readers (3/15): "If the North accepted the prospect of multiple visits to the facility, it certainly would be an important achievement. This progress, we hope, will send a signal to the United States that North Korean issues can be resolved through diplomacy, not military means. One concern, however, is that should Washington gain access to the facility only because it agreed to exchange inspections for food aid, there is no guarantee that the North will not create a similar situation again.... The missile issue will still remain unresolved. We have to find a way to stop that program, and we need U.S.-ROK solidarity."

JAPAN: "Concerns Still Remain"

Top-circulation, centrist Yomiuri's editorial stressed (3/19): "A bigger problem is that the agreement failed to dispel once and for all suspicions over North Korea's nuclear development because it only covers U.S. access to Kumchang-Ri.... Such U.S. negotiating methods as dealing with Pyongyang on an ad-hoc, quid-pro-quo basis...tend to lead to stopgap measures which ultimately result in failure."

"Nuclear Suspicions Must Be Fully Dispelled"

Business-oriented Nihon Keizai Shimbun argued (3/19): "Things will never proceed smoothly if the United States continues to deal with the North on an ad-hoc basis."

"Turning Point Toward Comprehensive Solutions"

Liberal Asahi opined (3/18): "It is meaningful that a collapse of the 1994 Agreed Framework was averted and a turning point has been reached regarding the Korean Peninsula situation, a situation which had been worsening.... [Now] we should boldly implement such measures as relaxation of economic sanctions and large-scale international food aid--as requested by the North--and facilitate an environment in which Pyongyang has no choice but to open its doors to the world. Now is the time [for the United States and Japan] to adopt...a comprehensive, long-term diplomatic approach [toward North Korea.]"

"U.S. Must Make Diplomatic Goals, Strategy Clear"

According to liberal Mainichi (3/18): "The latest agreement does not mean solutions were found to essential problems. Also, it will not fundamentally improve U.S.-North Korea relations. Its most important goal was to fulfill conditions set by Congress (to continue American funding for shipping oil to the North.)... Congress will become frustrated with the agreement. It will also take up the issue of inspections into other [suspected nuclear] sites. The State Department will surely be criticized for its negotiating approach being too 'ad hoc.' The United States and North Korea must swiftly switch their negotiation style from an 'ad hoc' basis to 'strategic diplomacy.' They have to make it clear that the purpose of bilateral talks is to normalize the relationship. Washington has to make clear its diplomatic road map toward that goal."

"We Cannot Praise This"

Conservative Sankei had this to say (3/18): "Because no solutions are promised (by the North) to resolve its suspected nuclear development, we cannot praise this agreement... It is very doubtful that an inspection of Kumchang-ri will disclose a nuclear facility. More than six months have passed since suspicions over the site surfaced, and chances are high that North Korea has already moved any nuclear facility to other locations.... The United States will eventually be criticized for making concessions (to the North) and failing to have Pyongyang accept U.S. visits to other sites."

"Source Of Trouble Remains On Korean Peninsula"

Business-oriented Nihon Keizai's New York correspondent pointed out (3/18): "It cannot be denied that this agreement, just like the 1994 Agreed Framework, merely puts off the 'present crisis' until later. It is highly unlikely that the accord will become a trump card to dispel suspicions about North Korea's suspected nuclear development. Nor will it encourage the North to follow international rules in order to secure stability on the peninsula."

"Suspicions Still Remain About Compliance"

Business-oriented Nihon Keizai Shimbun's correspondent Sunohara wrote from New York (3/17): "The United States and North Korea have agreed on implementation of U.S. inspections into North Korea's suspected nuclear facility. However, lingering suspicions still remain whether Pyongyang will comply with the latest accord. Also, it is unknown whether the results of marathon talks in New York, which include a U.S. concession of increasing the volume of food aid, would lead to a permanent detente between the United States and North Korea. With this agreement, the 1994 Agreed Framework meant to freeze North Korea's nuclear development has lost its meaning, while chances that the United States will immediately adopt a hard-line stance toward the North will decline for the time being. However, there is a view within the United States that renewed food assistance is not necessary because U.S. access to the suspected site should be treated as a matter of course under the Agreed Framework. Also, strong opinions persist in Washington that the nuclear crisis is deepening as Pyongyang has continued its nuclear and missile development even after the accord."

HONG KONG: "Sunshine Test"

The independent South China Morning Post's editorial concluded (3/15): "Seoul wants the United States to stick to a plan to lift sanctions if Pyongyang can prove that nothing sinister is going on in the underground site. Slender though that prospect may be, hard-line tactics do not seems to produce better results. A two-track policy, said to be under consideration by U.S. policy co-ordinator William Perry, looks a better option. In line with President Theodore Roosevelt's celebrated advice, the best policy in dealing with Pyongyang is to 'speak softly and carry a big stick.'"

INDONESIA: "Understanding Required To Manage North Korea Policy"

An editorial in leading, independent Kompas held (3/22): "As is the case with Saddam, we are concerned that North Korea will face considerable ongoing pressure. Against the far weaker Iraq, the superpower United States is too willing to use force to further its policies. North Korea has already warned the United States that it should not dare to attempt inspection of sensitive facilities other than...Kumchang-ri. We hope that, in both North Korea and Iraq, all parties exercise fair diplomatic practices and honor previous agreements. Each party must also realize that, in addition to political principles, the fates of millions of people must be considered. We must highlight this point, since both major countries and authoritarian regimes--preoccupied with their own affairs--frequently carry out policies that ignore the lives of millions of people."

MACAU: "Significance Of Inspection Agreement With North Korea"

The pro-Beijing Macau Daily News had this analysis (3/21): "The United States finally reached an agreement with North Korea...regarding the inspection of North Korea's underground facilities. This agreement has resolved the disputes between the two countries and improved bilateral relations. It has also added new factors in alleviating the tense situation in the Korea Peninsula.... If all the positive changes...can be achieved, it will lay down a secure foundation for solving a group of issues involving the Korean Peninsula, such as concluding the Cold War antagonism between the two countries and developing bilateral diplomatic relations."

THAILAND: "North Korea Talks Are Never Simple"

The lead editorial of the top-circulation, moderately conservative Bangkok Post held (3/21): "Within two months, U.S. inspectors are to visit Kumchang-ri. The agreement by North Korea last week promises they will be given full access to the facility--is necessary. Pyongyang insists there is no nuclear program at the underground complex. But, to put it in the most charitable way, North Korea has often been modest about its development of terrible weapons in the past. The main point is that if North Korea wants to take part in today's world, it must play by the established rules. That means it must allow qualified arms inspectors into its most suspicious areas. It cannot demand, let alone expect, America or any other country or group to pay for that right."

EUROPE

BRITAIN: "North Korea Fills Washington With Sense Of Quiet Alarm"

This analysis ran in the independent Financial Times (2/9): "A sense of quiet alarm has been gripping Washington for months over North Korea's apparent determination to develop both nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them. Until last summer, the United States and it allies had gained comfort from a 1994 accord under which North Korea promised to give up its nuclear program in exchange for the installation of 'safe' light water power generators not capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium. The latest signs are that the two countries are now edging towards a new agreement. The negotiations have been complicated by a demand from North Korea for a $300-million payment for a one-time inspection of an underground site near its main nuclear complex at Yongbyon and by the reluctance of Congress to sanction a $35-million appropriation needed to supply heavy fuel oil under the 1994 agreement.... [South Korean President] Kim has been pressing the United States to ease sanctions, normalize relations with the North and step up food aid, despite Pyongyang's reluctance to enter direct talks with Seoul as it is supposed to under the agreement. Handled correctly, easing sanctions could be a way of assuaging Pyongyang's paranoia."

RUSSIA: "Trading Nukes For Chow"

Vladimir Kutakhov of ITAR-TASS noted in reformist Noviye Izvestiya (3/18): "The American-North Korean arrangement on U.S. inspections at Kumchang-ri must first of all satisfy official Seoul and President Kim Dae Jung, who fretted that Uncle Sam, warmed by a foxhunt in the Persian Gulf, might be tempted to try it in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. A possible breakthrough in U.S.-North Korea relations may have a favorable effect on the as-yet frozen KEDO project in North Korea."

"North Korea Uses Soviet Technologies To Build Rocket"

Reformist Moskovskiye Novosti front-paged this editorial comment (2/9): "As Russia thinks that the current hype over a growing danger in Northeast Asia is a cover-up for the United States and Japan's planning to build an anti-missile defense system, the North Koreans, enthused with juche ideas, may quietly work to improve their rockets on the basis of Soviet technology."

"Food And A View"

Dmitry Zharnikov remarked in reformist Noviye Izvestia (2/5): "'Bread for circus' is a good arrangement for both players. The Americans will help with food [for North Korea] without having to pay money, and the Koreans, opposed to inspection [of the Kumchangri facility], will...let them take a look."

BELGIUM: "Inspections, Potatoes And Saving Face"

Asian affairs writer Freddy De Pauw noted in independent Catholic De Standaard (3/18): "As of May, the United States will be allowed to send inspectors to Kumchang-ri.... Today, however, the Americans are preoccupied by Seoul's attitude. South Korean President Kim Dae Jung is preaching reconciliation with Pyongyang through his 'sunshine policy.' The South must give food to impoverished North Korea to make the peninsula safer.... An implosion in the North might drag the South into chaos. Seoul and the EU believe that it is important to integrate North Korea into the 'international circuit.' This week's accord certainly eliminates one obstacle."

SOUTH ASIA

INDIA: "A Nuclear Peep For Potato Seeds"

Hong Kong correspondent Harvey Stockwin had this to say in the centrist Hindu (3/22):

"Once again, U.S. appeasement looks likely to result in the North Koreans, rather than the Americans' being much more likely to get what they want.... It now transpires that the North Koreans have agreed to something much less than that: the Americans will inspect Kumchang-ri this coming May--and again in May 2000. That is 'regular and repeated' inspection in the narrowest sense.... Clearly, the North Koreans, who admit only that sensitive security work is being done at Kumchang-ri, have plenty of time to move out the more damning evidence before the American inspection takes place.... As in Iraq so in North Korea inspections will only be conclusive if they can be undertaken more regularly than once a year and also with complete surprise.... The reality is that the North Koreans are being rewarded by much more than the $300 million they originally demanded. For a start, the Americans have recently pledged 500,000 tons of additional food aid to the World Food Program's (WFP) current global appeal aid for the famine-struck North.... The Americans will, of course, formally deny that they have conceded any 'compensation' for inspections, as North Korea originally demanded. However, that denial will lack credibility. There are other weaknesses in the agreement. The suspicion remains that the North may be hard at work at other secret nuclear sites which U.S. satellites have not yet spotted."

"U.S. Buys Out North Korea's Belligerence"

The right-of-center Indian Express' Washington correspondent Chidanand Rajghatta asserted (3/18): "North Korea will throw open its alleged secret nuclear facility to U.S. inspection--for potatoes. The two sides came to this rather starchy arrangement, full of wrinkles yet, after weeks of negotiations following American suspicion that Pyongyang was secretly developing nuclear weapons, possibly with Pakistani help.... The food-for-atoms deal opens up interesting questions about U.S. non-proliferation policies. Some experts and lawmakers see an increasing tendency by Washington to buy out troublesome proliferations...notably Ukraine and Kazakhstan.... In Moscow yesterday, Russia offered to curtail its nuclear cooperation with Iran if the United States ends sanctions against two leading Russian nuclear research centers.... No such proposals have been envisaged for the Indian subcontinent, which Washington said is the latest nuclear hotspot in the world."

PAKISTAN: "Nuclear Deal Averts Crisis In Korean Peninsula"

The centrist News concluded (3/18): "Call it 'potato diplomacy'. An agreement allowing the United States access to an underground site in North Korea suspected of housing a secret nuclear project in exchange for a potato cultivation project for the famine-struck North has averted a crisis on the Korean peninsula."

WESTERN HEMISPHERE

CANADA: "U.S. Finally Awakening To North Korean Threat"

Contributing foreign editor Eric Margolis attested in the conservative Ottawa Sun (2/8): "North Korea should never have been allowed to develop the capability to hit the United States with nuclear, chemical, or biological warheads. Clinton has committed a major, unforgivable dereliction of duty by exposing the United States to this danger. Instead of facing the problem five years ago, the White House and CIA hid from it. True to style, President Clinton chose empty posturing and bribery rather than decisive action. North Korea's nuclear capability must be destroyed. Each day the West delays means it will be more difficult and dangerous to confront Pyongyang when the time inevitably comes. Ignoring this very real problem, while beating the dead camel of Iraq, is both absurd and perilous. While the United States daily blasts what's left of Iraq--to prevent Saddam from somehow threatening Kuwait or Israel, says the Pentagon--North Korea is being handed U.S. taxpayers' money and left peacefully alone to build weapons capable of one day destroying North America."

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3/22/99

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