29 November 1999
North Korea Unlikely to Collapse Any Time Soon, Perry Says
(Perry discusses his DPRK study at Wilson Center Nov. 29) (590) By Jane A. Morse Washington File Staff Writer Washington -- Despite widespread starvation and horrific economic conditions, the current North Korean regime is unlikely to collapse any time soon, according to William Perry, special advisor on North Korea to President Clinton and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. The former U.S. Defense Secretary, who completed an in-depth review last month of U.S. policy toward the Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (DPRK), discussed his findings with scholars and policymakers at the Woodrow Wilson Center November 29. Conditions for a popular revolt do not exist among the North Korean populace, Perry said, refuting the theories of some observers who have predicted that severe long-standing deprivations would cause a revolt against Kim Jong Il's regime. Perry acknowledged that he is personally no expert on North Korea's internal affairs. However, Perry said, extensive discussions with aid workers and others who have spent years inside North Korea have led him to conclude that there is no general disaffection among North Koreans for their rulers -- a situation he attributed to their complete isolation from outside influences. The DPRK may be poor and isolated, Perry said, but it remains a formidable threat thanks to a chemical weapons arsenal, the potential to develop nuclear weapons, effective short- and medium-range missiles, and an army of one million soldiers deployed near South Korea's border. Perry said his year-long research has made him confident that North Korea has not produced any fissile material since it forswore its nuclear program under the Agreed Framework it signed with the United States in 1994. But the DPRK's technical capabilities are such that it could reconstitute its nuclear weapons program within a matter of months, he said. Although the Agreed Framework is working, North Korea's pursuit of a long-range missile capability could derail the pact, Perry warned. At present, he noted, the DPRK has agreed to suspend plans for long-range missile tests. Perry said he has advised the Clinton Administration to normalize political and economic relations with the DPRK if North Korea agrees to abandon its long-range missile program. Such an agreement would greatly benefit both sides, Perry said, but so far North Korean leaders seem reluctant to make a move in that direction, possibly because they fear the effects of outside influences on their citizens. Nonetheless, they have agreed to hold more talks to discuss such an option, he said. If North Korea continues to pursue long-range missile capabilities, the United States and its allies must take action to contain the threat, Perry said. According to Perry, the most enduring and significant outcome of his policy review efforts has been closer coordination between the United States, South Korea and Japan. He said the six tripartite meetings held at his request during his research were the first ever to deal directly with North Korean issues. Perry said he also had two important consultations during his policy review with Chinese leaders, including China's president, prime minister, and defense minister. The United States considers China an important player in Korean affairs, but Perry said Chinese officials have told him that China's influence with North Korea was sharply diminished when China recognized South Korea. South Korea is now one of China's most important trading partners, he noted. (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State.)
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