DATE=11/1/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=KOREA / NORTH KOREA STRATEGY
NUMBER=5-44679
BYLINE=ALISHA RYU
DATELINE=SEOUL
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: South Korean President Kim Dae-jung says he
believes the current U-S and South Korean policy
toward North Korea - a policy known as engagement - is
the best long-term strategy for peace on the
peninsula. When the Korean War ended almost five
decades ago, the two Koreas signed an armistice
agreement - not a peace treaty - so technically, they
are still at war. Now, some South Koreans are
starting to question whether the current engagement
strategy is really the best way to deal with the
North. V-O-A's Alisha Ryu reports from one of the
last remaining battlegrounds of the Cold War - the
divide between the two Koreas.
Text: In an area called Twin Bridges, 25 kilometers
north of Seoul, a military training exercise is
underway. The maneuvers underscore just how fragile
the peace is on the Korean peninsula.
/// Act of artillery exploding - Establish
and Fade ///
U-S troops from the 16th Armored Division are in the
middle of an intense mock battle with a South Korean
tank brigade.
/// Act of tanks rolling and guns firing -
Establish and Fade ///
More than three-thousand soldiers and 40 state-of-the-
art M-One-A-One Abrams tanks are taking part in these
annual joint U-S /South Korean maneuvers to stay ready
for possible renewed conflict with the North.
During the exercise, soldiers glance nervously at the
hilltops surrounding the northern edge of Twin
Bridges. The Demilitarized Zone (D-M-Z), a heavily
fortified frontier that separates the two Koreas, is
just 12 kilometers away. And just north of it, an
estimated two-thirds of the one-million strong North
Korean Army and 80 percent of its firepower are
believed to be stationed, ready for attack.
If that firepower blazed into action, South Korea
would suffer a devastating blow. The capital Seoul
and its 10-million residents is only two minutes
flying time from North Korean airfields and within
easy range of the North's heavy artillery.
Even more worrying for South Korea and its allies are
North Korea's active nuclear program and its arsenal
of ballistic missiles.
Last year, North Korea test fired a long-range
Taepodong missile that flew over Japan before coming
down in the Pacific. Newer versions of the missile
are believed capable of striking targets as far away
as Honolulu or Anchorage, Alaska. Indications that
the Pyongyang government was about to test this more
advanced missile prompted the United States to make
North Korea a new proposal this year: If the
government in Pyongyang stopped developing the new
missile, Washington would ease nearly five decades of
economic sanctions against North Korea.
South Korean President Kim Dae-jung supported the U-S
offer and the engagement policy it represented.
President Kim considered the U-S proposal in line with
his own efforts to ease tensions by stepping up
economic and other contacts with the North. Dubbed
"the sunshine policy," in South Korea, the new
strategy was a radical departure from the hawkish
stance of previous Seoul governments.
Under the Sunshine policy, South Korea has approved
billions of dollars in joint business ventures with
the North, removed some restrictions on travel and
donated millions of dollars to help North Korea
recover from three years of crippling famine.
Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Hong Soon-young
says he believes the sunshine policy will eventually
lead to more stability on the peninsula.
/// HONG ACT ///
Our immediate goal is not unification. It is
peaceful co-existence. While we are talking to
each other, there is no danger of war. This is
the benefit of the engagement policy.
/// END ACT ///
So far, North Korea has accepted the idea of
establishing limited contacts. Political scientist
Lho (pronounced No) Kyung-soo at Seoul National
University sees the new exchanges as a breakthrough
and a chance for South Korea to guide North Korea
toward a less militaristic stance.
/// LHO ACT ///
It is in our interest to give them the kind of
assistance to, at one level, pacify them but on
another level, over time, engage them in a web
of relations that will eventually lead them to
recognize that it is in their interest to
cooperate rather than pursue conflict.
/// END ACT ///
But other experts in South Korea remain skeptical of
the sunshine, or engagement, policy. Mr. Lho's
colleague at Seoul National University, Paik
(pronounced Bok) Jin-hyun, says he believes engagement
actually rewards North Korea for provocative behavior.
/// PAIK ACT ///
The success of the sunshine policy really
depends on a positive response by Pyongyang.
This is really one-sided and lacking balance.
How can you change North Korea by ruling out the
use of stick while giving out all these carrots?
North Korea is a very small country that is
isolated and very poor. Nonetheless, they are
developing these terrible weapons which require
enormous amount of investment, political will
and determination. You should not underestimate
that.
/// END ACT ///
Professor Lee Jung-hoon at Yonsei University agrees it
will not be easy to persuade North Korea to change its
ways.
/// LEE ACT ///
It would, of course, be wonderful if North Korea
finally reforms and opens up to the rest of the
world. But I am skeptical because for North
Korea, the single most important thing is to
ensure regime survivability. No matter what the
West or South Korea does, if nuclear weapons or
missiles are considered to be important to the
regime's survivability, it will go ahead and
develop these weapons.
/// END ACT ///
Not only the public policy experts worry about such
things. Similar concerns are beginning to show up in
the public at large. Twenty-five year-old Chung Jong-
young, a graduate student, says so far the North has
shown little willingness to match South Korea's more
open policies.
/// CHUNG ACT IN KOREAN - ESTABLISH AND
FADE ///
She says despite massive economic aid and tourism
dollars, North Korea still refuses to deal directly
with Seoul and wants to negotiate instead with the
United States. She thinks the policy of reaching out
to North Korea is turning out to be a waste of time
and money.
Ironically, skepticism about the sunshine policy could
give President Kim some bargaining leverage with the
North. He can cite what appears to be waning public
support and make it clear to Pyongyang that the
government will be forced to give up the engagement
policy unless it produces tangible results.
/// Sound of guns firing and explosions
///
Meanwhile, back in Twin Bridges, U-S and South Korean
forces continue their annual military exercises,
hoping they will never have to use their training in a
real conflict. (Signed)
NEB/AR/KL/JO/JP
03-Nov-1999 10:38 AM EDT (03-Nov-1999 1538 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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