DATE=8/25/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=CHINA-NORTH KOREA
NUMBER=5-44132
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: South Korea is trying to coordinate action by
the United States, Japan, and China to get North Korea
to call off a planned launch of a long-range missile.
As part of its diplomatic initiative, Seoul sent its
defense minister to Beijing for the first-ever meeting
between defense ministers of the two former wartime
enemies. V-O-A's Stephanie Mann reports on China's
ability and willingness to influence North Korea.
TEXT: China and North Korea used to be close allies -
- two communist states in a region of capitalist
democracies. In the 1950's, China came to Pyongyang's
aid against South Korean and U-S forces in the Korean
War. China and North Korea also engaged in barter
trade, important for the North's fragile economy.
But then, in the late 1970's, Beijing began to adopt
capitalist reforms and strengthened its ties with
western countries. And in 1992, China established
diplomatic relations with South Korea, an action seen
by Pyongyang as a serious snub.
In the past few years, China has been the number-one
provider of food aid and energy to North Korea. Asian
affairs analyst at the U-S Institute of Peace, Scott
Snyder says China now is trying to maintain good
relations with both Pyongyang and Seoul.
// SNYDER ACT ONE //
I think it is very difficult, but China has
demonstrated that it is probably in the best
position at this point to have a relationship
with both. North Korea's dependence on China is
simply too great to ignore. And at the same
time, the Chinese government has a vested
interest in improving its relationship with
South Korea, precisely because South Korea's
influence on the peninsula is predominant and is
likely to be defining in terms of the future of
the power balance on the peninsula.
// END ACT //
Asked if he thinks China would be interested in
intervening with North Korea on behalf of the South,
Mr. Snyder says Beijing will not do anything that
would risk damaging its ties with Pyongyang. So, he
says any Chinese intervention would be quiet and
perhaps indirect.
Nevertheless, Mr. Snyder says China is concerned about
the possibility of North Korea launching a ballistic
missile and how that could jeopardize stability on the
Korean peninsula. A year ago, North Korea test-fired
a missile that passed over Japan. Tokyo, Seoul, and
Washington have warned another such test would have
serious diplomatic and economic consequences.
// OPT // Mr. Snyder says officials in Beijing may be
more willing to cooperate in response to an appeal by
South Korea than to one from the United States.
// OPT SNYDER ACT TWO //
They (China) want stability, which is an
interest that they share with the United States.
But at the same time, anything that is done in
terms of active cooperation with the United
States at this time may be a little bit more
controversial, particularly given the backdrop
of the embassy bombing (in Belgrade) . and other
strains on the U-S-China relationship at this
time.
// END ACT // END OPT //
Mr. Snyder says North Korea is likely to resist any
pressure, even from China, unless it feels it has no
other option.
South Korean journalist Jeong-woo Kil agrees, but he
says North Korea is desperate to continue receiving
Chinese economic aid.
// KILL ACT ONE //
When we consider North Korea's full situation --
economic difficulties and potential cooperation
in energy supply -- China might be the only
country who can help or salvage North Korea.
So, the North Korean leadership cannot ignore
(it), even though they are saying that the
missile launch is totally a North Korean
sovereignty issue.
// END ACT //
Mr. Kil, a Washington-based columnist for South
Korea's Joong-ang Ilbo newspaper, says the missile
issue is at an important juncture. He points to the
South Korean and Chinese defense ministers' meeting
and says Seoul had been pushing for it for several
years. Mr. Kil says the fact that China agreed to it
at this time indicates Beijing is now willing to
intervene in the missile issue.
// OPT KIL ACT TWO //
This is very symbolic meeting, which means the
Chinese government seems to be prepared to send
some signal (to) the North Korean military,
which might be in charge of the missile launch,
that North Korea's hostility represented by the
missile launch (is) not beneficial for North
Korea themselves, but also is a serious concern
for North Korea's ally, China.
// END ACT // END OPT //
Scott Snyder agrees the defense ministers' meeting has
symbolic significance. But he says the substance of
the Chinese-South Korean defense relationship remains
to be developed, and he calls the meeting only a
starting point.
// REST OPTIONAL //
// SNYDER ACT THREE //
There is a history of over-expectation, I think,
in Seoul with regard to what China might be
willing to do in order to help South Korea in
dealing with diplomatic affairs on the
peninsula. And I think that the Chinese
approach, particularly on military cooperation,
is going to remain very cautious and very
incremental.
// END ACT //
Mr. Snyder sees South Korea's initiative as the latest
effort in an ongoing international diplomatic process
to try to limit North Korea's destabilizing actions.
(SIGNED)
NEB/slm/RAE
25-Aug-1999 11:25 AM LOC (25-Aug-1999 1525 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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