DATE=8/11/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=NORTH KOREA MISSILE
NUMBER=5-44039
BYLINE=GIL BUTLER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: North Korea may be nearing a test of a new
long-range missile that has been condemned by its
neighbors and by the United States. In this
background report, correspondent Gil Butler looks at
the possible ramifications of the new missile for
international security.
TEXT: "Asia Week" magazine says it must be the most
anticipated rocket launch since the Apollo-11 mission
to the moon. For weeks, Western intelligence agencies
have been predicting that North Korea is planning to
test launch a new, long-range missile, the Taepodong-
II, believed to be capable of hitting the U-S state of
Alaska.
Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise
Institute says North Korea's intention, if it goes
through with the test, is to -- in his words -- knock
on the door of the United States.
Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution declines
to predict whether North Korea will carry out the
missile test.
/// FIRST O'HANLON ACT ///
There are people who are trying to say it will
or it will not test. I would rather just say
that the chances are certainly real because we
know that North Korea likes to create crises.
It is about the only diplomatic card it seems to
have up its sleeve. Whether it will judge that
threatening to test is enough, or whether it
actually decides to carry out a test, is
anybody's guess.
/// END ACT ///
He says there may be some rocky months ahead if the
decision is to go ahead with the test.
Nicholas Eberstadt and other analysts say tensions
certainly have risen over the threatened missile test.
About one-year-ago, North Korea raised tensions in the
region when it fired an earlier version of the missile
over Japan.
If the Taepodong II test goes forward, how should the
international community respond?
Japan has said there will be economic consequences for
North Korea if it goes ahead with the test. Mr.
Eberstadt says a credible warning would be for Japan
to suspend its participation in the program to build
safer nuclear reactors for North Korea. That program,
financed by South Korea, Japan, and other countries,
is part of the effort to keep Pyongyang from trying to
develop nuclear weapons.
Baker Spring of Washington's Heritage Foundation calls
for the United States to respond to a North Korean
missile launch by dropping existing treaty
restrictions on developing theater missile defenses.
/// SPRING ACT ///
Basically the administration policy is barring
the effective testing of those systems against
the kind of missile the North Koreans launched
last year, let alone what they may be ready to
launch this year.
/// END ACT ///
/// OPT /// The United States is abiding by the terms
of the ABM treaty, though opponents argue it is no
longer in force because the agreement was made with
the Soviet Union, which no longer exists. /// END OPT
///
/// OPT /// Nicholas Eberstadt is urging a cautious
reaction to North Korean threats.
/// EBERSTADT ACT ///
Military specialists seem to believe that war is
only a couple of heartbeats away in the Korean
Peninsula today. But war has only been a couple
of heartbeats away since the armistice was
signed in 1953. Is it a tense time? Yes, it is
a tense time. It has always been a tense time
there. It will be a tense time until the D-P-R-
K regime fundamentally alters or disappears from
the scene. I guess what is needed is a certain
amount of calm vigilance and steady, appropriate
responses if North Korea seeks to shake down
[extort] the international community with a
missile launch.
/// END ACT /// ///END OPT ///
Brookings' Michael O'Hanlon says a broader approach to
dealing with North Korea is needed.
/// SECOND O'HANLON ACT ///
My impression from the start of this so-called
detente period or relaxation period or sunshine
period -- to paraphrase the South Korean
president -- is that North Korea does not have
enough incentive to go along with these talks,
and therefore will make concessions only very
slowly and begrudgingly. And we have to think
more ambitiously about ways to induce North
Korea down a path of economic reform and gradual
demilitarization, rather than just focusing on
missiles and nuclear weapons. I think,
therefore that this impasse was predictable.
/// END ACT ///
While North Korea is deciding whether or not to launch
a new missile test, the latest round of four-party
talks on reducing Korean peninsula tensions ended with
no apparent progress. In bilateral meetings in Geneva
between American and North Korean diplomats, the
United States reiterated its concern over the possible
long-range missile test. (Signed)
NEB/MGB/WTW/RAE
11-Aug-1999 09:15 AM EDT (11-Aug-1999 1315 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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