DATE=7/22/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43934
TITLE=NORTH KOREA FAMINE IMPACT
BYLINE=DAVID MCALARY
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: FOUR YEARS OF FAMINE HAVE HAD A DEVASTATING IMPACT ON THE
NORTH KOREAN POPULATION, ACCORDING TO A NEW STUDY OF NORTH KOREAN
REFUGEES IN CHINA. AS WE HEAR FROM V-O-A'S DAVID MCALARY, THE
DEATH RATE HAS JUMPED, BIRTH RATES HAVE DROPPED, AND HOUSEHOLD
SIZES HAVE SHRUNKEN.
TEXT: A COUNTRY IN WHICH MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO
FORAGING FOR FOOD IS NOT THE PICTURE OF HEALTH. THAT HAS BEEN
THE SITUATION IN NORTH KOREA, WHERE A SERIES OF NATURAL DISASTERS
HAS LED TO BAD HARVESTS AND SEVERE FOOD SHORTAGES. THE NATION
HAS BEEN LARGELY DEPENDENT ON OUTSIDE AID TO FEED ITS ESTIMATED
23-MILLION PEOPLE SINCE 1995.
SOME WESTERN OBSERVERS ESTIMATE THAT TWO-MILLION TO THREE-MILLION
PEOPLE MAY HAVE DIED AS A RESULT OF THE FAMINE.
PYONGYANG IS SECRETIVE ABOUT ITS NATIONAL STATISTICS, BUT
INDEPENDENT DATA GATHERED FROM NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES BY U-S
RESEARCHERS ARE GRIM.
/// FIRST ROBINSON ACT ///
THE SITUATION LOOKS SEVERE, AND IT POINTS TO THE FACT
THAT PEOPLE HAVE BEEN DYING, AND MAY POSSIBLY CONTINUE
TO BE DYING.
/// END ACT ///
COURTLAND ROBINSON IS A POPULATION RESEARCHER AT THE JOHNS
HOPKINS UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH IN BALTIMORE,
MARYLAND. LAST YEAR, HE AND COLLEAGUES ASKED ABOUT BIRTHS,
DEATHS, FAMILY SIZE AND FOOD SOURCES IN INTERVIEWS WITH 440
MIGRANTS WHO HAD CROSSED FROM NORTH KOREA'S NORTH HAMGYONG
PROVINCE TO REFUGEE CAMPS IN CHINA'S YANBIAN AUTONOMOUS
PREFECTURE.
/// SECOND ROBINSON ACT ///
HOUSEHOLDS IN OUR SAMPLE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
INCREASING MORTALITY AND DECLINING HOUSEHOLD SIZE OVER
THE PERIOD OF THE STUDY, 1995 TO 1997. THAT IS
SUGGESTIVE FAMILIES WERE INCREASINGLY SUFFERING UNDER
THE WEIGHT OF CERTAINLY FOOD SHORTAGES, POSSIBLY OTHER
ECONOMIC IMPACTS -- A COMBINATION OF EVENTS.
/// END ACT ///
MR. ROBINSON'S FINDINGS, PUBLISHED IN THE MEDICAL JOURNAL
"LANCET," INDICATE A DOUBLING OF DEATH RATES BETWEEN 1995 AND
1997 AND A SEVEN-FOLD JUMP BETWEEN 1993 AND 1997, FROM SIX DEATHS
TO 42 FOR EVERY ONE-THOUSAND PEOPLE. THE JOHNS HOPKINS
DEMOGRAPHER LEARNED THAT OFFICIAL RATIONS BY THE END OF 1997
PROVIDED LESS THAN FIVE PERCENT OF THE PRE-CRISIS AVERAGE OF 700
GRAMS PER PERSON DAILY.
/// THIRD ROBINSON ACT ///
AN INCREASING PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLDS HAVE RELIED
PRIMARILY ON FORAGING FOR ALTERNATIVE FOODS -- TREE
BARK, WEEDS, ROOTS, BERRIES ET CETERA FOR THEIR PRIMARY
SOURCE OF FOOD. SO ALL OF THESE FACTS TAKEN TOGETHER
PAINT A PICTURE OF SUBSTANTIAL DISTRESS AMONG NORTH
KOREAN HOUSEHOLDS.
/// END ACT ///
THE RESEARCHERS URGE CAUTION IN PROJECTING THEIR REFUGEE ANALYSIS
ONTO AN ENTIRE NATION. MIGRANTS, THEY SAY, ARE NOT TYPICAL OF
AN ENTIRE PEOPLE, SINCE THEY TEND TO BE MOSTLY YOUNG MEN, AND
THEIR CONDITION MORE DIRE. BUT EVEN IF THE RESULTS OF THE
QUESTIONS ARE NOT SCIENTIFICALLY REPRESENTATIVE, MR. ROBINSON
SAYS THEY ARE AT LEAST INDICATIVE OF NORTH KOREA'S PLIGHT.
/// FOURTH ROBINSON ACT ///
WE THINK THAT THE FIGURE OF 42-PER-THOUSAND AVERAGE
MORTALITY DURING THE STUDY PERIOD 1995 TO [19]97
CERTAINLY IS QUITE HIGH AND SUGGESTIVE THAT INDEED, MANY
NORTH KOREAN HOUSEHOLDS HAVE SUFFERED DRAMATIC DOWNTURNS
AS THE RESULT OF THIS ONGOING CRISIS.
/// END ACT ///
THE PUBLIC HEALTH RESEARCHERS WILL SHARE THEIR DATA WITH
INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES AND NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS WORKING
IN RELIEF OPERATIONS. MR. ROBINSON SAYS HE HOPES THE NUMBERS
STIMULATE PYONGYANG TO ALLOW SIMILAR INVESTIGATIONS WITHIN THE
COUNTRY.
/// FIFTH ROBINSON ACT ///
I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO GET INSIDE THE COUNTRY TO DO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE STUDIES WITHIN NORTH KOREAN
HOUSEHOLDS AND GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING HOW THIS FOOD
CRISIS HAS AFFECTED LIVES AND HOW WE MIGHT USE THAT
INFORMATION TO BEST TARGET THE HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
AND THE DEVELOPMENT AID THAT I CERTAINLY HOPE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FORTHCOMING AS NORTH KOREA TRIES TO PULL
OUT OF, I THINK, A VERY DEEP SPIRAL THAT IT'S BEEN IN
FOR THE LAST FEW YEARS.
/// END ACT ///
AS COURTLAND ROBINSON PUTS IT, IT IS NOT HELPFUL TO INSIST THAT
MORTALITY RATES ARE A MATTER OF STATE SECURITY. (SIGNED)
NEB/DEM/WTW
22-Jul-99 5:17 PM EDT (2117 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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