DATE=4/28/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43247
TITLE=NORTH KOREAN THREAT
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: WHILE THE UNITED STATES IS ENGAGED IN THE CONFLICT WITH
SERBIA, SOME POLICY MAKERS WORRY MORE ABOUT NORTH KOREA. THEY
FEAR OUT OF DESPERATION OR DESIGN THE STILL UNRECONSTRUCTED
COMMUNIST STATE MIGHT EMBARK ON AGGRESSION WHATEVER THE COST.
SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND OF ITS SOLDIERS ARE ON THE BORDER WITH
SOUTH KOREA FACING A SIMILAR NUMBER OF SOUTH KOREAN AND U-S
TROOPS ON THE OTHER SIDE. A NEW BOOK SUGGESTS THE NORTH KOREANS
ARE USING NEGOTIATIONS AS A PRETEXT WHILE THEY PREPARE FOR A
POSSIBLE WAR. V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS THE AUTHOR'S VIEWS AT A
RECENT WASHINGTON CONFERENCE AND SOME OPPOSING ONES.
TEXT: NORTH KOREA IS ONE OF THE WORLD'S MOST DESPERATE COUNTRIES
WITH SPREADING DISEASE AND FAMINE AND NO RELIEF IN SIGHT. WITH
LITTLE WORTH SELLING, THE REGIME RESORTS TO SMUGGLING ILLICIT
DRUGS AND OTHER CONTRABAND LIKE IVORY AND RHINO HORNS, ACCORDING
TO A U-S CONGRESSIONAL REPORT. ITS DIPLOMATS, WHO ARE NO LONGER
PAID, HAVE BEEN ARRESTED IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES FOR PASSING OFF,
AMONG OTHER THINGS, VERY GOOD COPIES OF U-S 100 DOLLAR BILLS.
INDIA FORBIDS KILLING COWS, BUT REPORTEDLY THAT HAS NOT STOPPED
NORTH KOREANS FROM SLAUGHTERING THEM IN THE EMBASSY BASEMENT FOR
BLACK MARKET BEEF.
YET THIS IS ALSO THE COUNTRY THAT SCARES ITS NEIGHBORS, AS WELL
AS THE UNITED STATES, WITH PERIODIC THREATS OF WAR, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE NUCLEAR WEAPONS. NORTH KOREA IS SO STRANGE, ISOLATED AND
UNINFORMED THAT NOBODY IS SURE WHAT IT MIGHT DO.
THAT IS JUST WHAT NORTH KOREANS COUNT ON, SAYS CHUCK DOWNS, A
FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER TO THE U-S HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. IN A
NEW BOOK, "OVER THE LINE," HE WRITES THAT THE COUNTRY'S LEADERS
ARE SHREWDLY CALCULATING. THEY PROVOKE FEARS OF WAR TO GET WHAT
THEY WANT AT THE NEGOTIATING TABLE:
// DOWNS ACT //
DESPITE THE PREVALENT CHARACTERIZATIONS THAT NORTH
KOREA'S NEGOTIATING STRATEGY IS CRAZY, IRRATIONAL,
BIZARRE AND UNPREDICTABLE, NORTH KOREA'S NEGOTIATING
STRATEGY HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY CONSISTENT. IT HAS
ALSO BEEN SURPRISINGLY SUCCESSFUL, IT BRINGS VERY LITTLE
TO THE TABLE, BUT IT HAS SUCCEEDED TIME AND AGAIN IN
FOCUSING THE WORLD'S ATTENTION ON ITS DEMANDS. AND IT
HAS WON VALUABLE CONCESSIONS IN THIS PROCESS.
// END ACT //
AT A RECENT CONFERENCE AT THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE, MR.
DOWNS SAID THE NORTH KOREANS ARE USING NEGOTIATIONS TO SALVAGE
THE ECONOMY THEIR OWN POLICIES HAVE WRECKED. BY GIVING IN TO
NORTH KOREAN DEMANDS, AMERICAN NEGOTIATORS SUPPLY THE FOOD AND
FUEL TO PROP UP A REGIME THAT MIGHT SOON FALL OF ITS OWN WEIGHT -
MUCH TO THE RELIEF OF THE REST OF THE WORLD.
YET AMERICANS NEVER SEEM TO LEARN, SAYS MR. DOWNS, WHO DESCRIBES
THE NORTH KOREAN NEGOTIATING PATTERN:
// DOWNS ACT //
IN THE FIRST PHASE, NORTH KOREA MAKES GRAND AND
ENCOURAGING GESTURES. IN THE SECOND, IT REINTERPRETS ITS
POSITION AND HARDENS ITS POSTURE. IN THE THIRD, IT
TERMINATES TALKS IN A WAY THAT WILL ALLOW IT TO CONDEMN
ITS OPPONENTS FOR NOT GIVING THEM ENOUGH OF WHAT THEY
WANTED.
// END ACT //
DO NOT GIVE THEM WHAT THEY WANT, URGES MR. DOWNS. THE BEST
SOLUTION MAY BE NO NEGOTIATIONS WHATSOEVER.
WHERE IS THAT SUPPOSED TO LEAD? ASKS DONALD GREGG, CHAIRMAN OF
THE KOREA SOCIETY IN NEW YORK AND A FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO
SOUTH KOREA. IF SUFFICIENTLY PRESSED BY OUTSIDE FORCES, HE
BELIEVES NORTH KOREANS MIGHT RESORT TO WAR. SO WHY PRESS THEM SO
HARD WHEN OTHER MEASURES HAVE NOT REALLY BEEN TRIED?
// GREGG ACT //
I THINK IF THERE IS ANOTHER WAY TO INVOLVE THEM, TO
INDICATE THAT BY BEHAVING MORE LIKE A LEGITIMATE NATION,
THEY CAN GAIN ACCESS TO SERIOUS OUTSIDE COOPERATION, WE
OUGHT TO TRY THAT. FOR EXAMPLE, I AM TALKING TO THE
NORTH KOREANS ABOUT LEADING AN AMERICAN GROUP OF
BUSINESSMEN INTO NORTH KOREA, AND THE FIRMS THAT ARE
INTERESTED IN MAKING SUCH A TRIP INCLUDE SOME OF THE
MOST DISTINGUISHED FIRMS IN THE UNITED STATES. AND THEY
ARE NOT SENTIMENTALISTS.
// END ACT //
MR. GREGG SAYS HE HAS NO ILLUSIONS ABOUT NORTH KOREAN BEHAVIOR
AND ITS LONG RECORD OF VIOLENCE AGAINST ITS NEIGHBORS. BUT HE
NOTES SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT KIM DAE JUNG HAS EMBARKED ON A
POLICY OF ENGAGEMENT WITH THE NORTH, WHICH HE SAYS SHOULD NOT BE
CONFUSED WITH APPEASEMENT:
// GREGG ACT //
NOW IT IS DIFFICULT FOR THE NORTH KOREANS TO ACCEPT THIS
BECAUSE THEY ARE FEARFUL OF CHANGE. THEY HAVE SEEN OTHER
COUNTRIES TRY TO CHANGE AND BE DESTROYED IN THE PROCESS.
IT IS GOING TO TAKE TIME. I THINK IT IS GOING TO TAKE A
COUPLE OF YEARS TO SEE WHETHER IT REALLY WORKS. BUT IT
HAS NEVER BEEN TRIED BEFORE. IT DOES NOT CARRY WITH IT
THE COSTS OF OUR MISCALCULATIONS IN KOSOVO. AND I AM ALL
FOR IT BECAUSE I HAVE GREAT ADMIRATION FOR KIM DAE JUNG,
AND I THINK WE SHOULD SUPPORT HIM.
// END ACT //
AMBASSADOR GREGG SAYS NORTH KOREA COULD FOLLOW THE MODEL OF CHINA
AND OTHER ASIAN NATIONS AND COMBINE AN AUTOCRATIC GOVERNMENT WITH
OPEN MARKETS. THIS IS NO PANACEA, HE CONCEDES, BUT IT WOULD BE A
DISTINCT IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY'S NORTH KOREA. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/GE
28-Apr-99 9:57 AM EDT (1357 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
