DATE=04/10/99
TYPE=ON THE LINE
NUMBER=1-00729
TITLE=THE CONTINUING CRISIS IN NORTH KOREA
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT=
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES
POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES.
THIS WEEK, "THE CONTINUING CRISIS IN NORTH
KOREA." HERE IS YOUR HOST, ROBERT REILLY.
HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE.
NORTH KOREA, ONE OF THE LAST COMMUNIST REGIMES
IN THE WORLD, IS IN ITS FOURTH YEAR OF FAMINE.
AN ESTIMATED TWO MILLION PEOPLE HAVE DIED OF
HUNGER AND DISEASE. BUT THE CRISIS HAS NOT
SLOWED NORTH KOREA'S EFFORTS TO ACQUIRE WEAPONS
OF MASS DESTRUCTION. AMONG OTHER THINGS,
DESPITE AN ACCORD NEGOTIATED WITH THE U.S. IN
1994 TO CEASE ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM,
PYONGYANG HAS INVESTED HEAVILY IN A SUSPECTED
NUCLEAR WEAPONS PLANT IN KUMCHANG-NI.
JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS THE CRISIS IN NORTH
KOREA ARE THREE EXPERTS. DON OBERDORFER IS
JOURNALIST-IN-RESIDENCE AT THE JOHNS HOPKINS
SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES AND
AUTHOR OF THE TWO KOREAS: A CONTEMPORARY
HISTORY. JAMES LILLEY IS A FORMER U.S.
AMBASSADOR TO BOTH CHINA AND SOUTH KOREA. AND
NICHOLAS EBERSTADT IS A RESEARCHER AND AUTHOR OF
THE FORTHCOMING BOOK, THE END OF NORTH KOREA.
GENTLEMEN, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.
HOST: MR. OBERDORFER, HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE THE
CRISIS IN NORTH KOREA TODAY?
OBERDORFER: WELL, IT'S SOMETHING THAT'S BEEN GOING ON FOR
QUITE A BIT OF TIME. IT'S NOTHING NEW. THIS
COUNTRY, FOR THE PAST FIVE YEARS SINCE THE DEATH
OF ITS FOUNDING LEADER KIM IL SUNG, HAS BEEN
GOING DOWN HILL ECONOMICALLY AT A RATHER RAPID
RATE. U.S. ESTIMATES ARE THAT ITS TOTAL OUTPUT
IS LESS THAN A THIRD OF WHAT IT WAS ONLY FIVE
YEARS AGO.
HOST: HOW CAN A COUNTRY WITHSTAND THAT KIND OF DECLINE
AND STILL POLITICALLY FUNCTION?
OBERDORFER: IT FUNCTIONS POLITICALLY BUT, AS YOU SAID
EARLIER, IT CANNOT FEED ITS PEOPLE. A LOT OF
ITS PEOPLE ARE STARVING, ARE GREATLY DEPRIVED OF
FOOD. YET IT MAINTAINS A VERY LARGE ARMY OF
OVER A MILLION TROOPS AND IT HAS A VIGOROUS
DEFENSE PROGRAM, ALTHOUGH I THINK IT IS NOT
CORRECT TO SAY THAT ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM
IS STILL GOING ON. ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM
IS FROZEN. THERE ARE U-N WEAPONS INSPECTORS
THERE AND AN AGREEMENT HAS BEEN MADE WITH THE
UNITED STATES, CONCLUDED A FEW WEEKS AGO IN NEW
YORK, THAT THIS UNDERGROUND FACILITY THAT YOU
MENTIONED IS GOING TO BE INSPECTED -- THE NORTH
KOREANS CALL IT "VISITED," BUT IT'S THE SAME
THING -- BY AMERICANS TO MAKE SURE IT'S NOT A
CONTINUATION OF ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM.
HOST: DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT, AMBASSADOR LILLEY?
LILLEY: ALL EXCEPT THE FACT THAT THEY'VE TERMINATED
THEIR NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM. I STILL FEEL
THAT THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PLACES WHERE THEY
COULD CONCEAL A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM AND
THERE'S SOME INDICATION THAT THEY'RE TURNING TO
OTHER PROCESSES TO GET THEIR NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
ONE, PURCHASING THEM FROM PLACES LIKE PAKISTAN
OR RUSSIA. TWO, SWITCHING TO URANIUM
ENRICHMENT, WHICH IS A MUCH MORE DIVERSE PROJECT
TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS. IT CAN BE HIDDEN
MUCH MORE EASILY. THE KUMCHANG-NI SITE IS
ACTUALLY A LARGE CAVE, WHICH I'M SURE HAS BEEN
CLEANED OUT. WE'LL GO UP THERE AND FIND
NOTHING. IT PROBABLY STOPPED ANY ACTIVITY THEY
WERE CARRYING ON THERE. AND WE'VE PUT A CAP ON
YOUNGBYON. WE HAVE THE FUEL RODS, WHICH ARE
STILL THERE. AND THEY CAN RE-ACTIVATE THEM ANY
TIME. WE STILL HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO GET AT
THEIR WASTE SITES, WHICH WOULD GIVE US AN
INDICATION OF HOW MANY BOMBS THEY HAVE.
HOST: BUT, IN THE INTERIM, THEY HAVE DEVELOPED
THREE-STAGE MISSILES.
LILLEY: YES, THIS IS TRUE. ON AUGUST 31ST, THEY HAD THE
SHOT OVER JAPAN OF WHAT THEY CALL A TAEPO DONG
MISSILE, BUT THAT'S ANOTHER ISSUE. IT'S A
CONNECTED ISSUE BECAUSE IT'S THE DELIVERY SYSTEM
FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND IT'S CAUSED A GREAT DEAL
OF CONSTERNATION IN JAPAN. AND JAPAN HAS
THREATENED TO WALK OUT OF KEDO [KOREAN
PENNINSULA ENERGY DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION] IF
THEY CONTINUE THIS.
HOST: WHICH MEANS?
LILLEY: WHICH MEANS THEY WILL CUT THEIR ONE BILLION
DOLLAR CONTRIBUTION TO LIGHT WATER [NUCLEAR]
REACTORS IN NORTH KOREA.
HOST: FROM THE 1994 FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT?
LILLEY: FROM THE 1994 AGREEMENT THAT WE'D SUPPLY TWO
LIGHT WATER REACTORS. THE NORTH KOREANS HAVEN'T
FIRED A SHOT SINCE, SO THAT WOULD SEEM TO
INDICATE THAT THE JAPANESE PRESSURE, PLUS
CHINESE INTERVENTION, MAY BE KEEPING THE NORTH
KOREANS FROM DOING THIS.
HOST: ALL RIGHT, NICK EBERSTADT, AMONG THE SUBJECTS IN
WHICH YOU'RE EXPERT, POPULATION AND RESOURCES IS
ONE OF THEM. WHAT DO WE REALLY KNOW ABOUT THE
EXTENT OF THE FAMINE, THE CAUSES OF THE FAMINE,
AND HOW MUCH WORSE IT MIGHT BECOME IN NORTH
KOREA, AND HOW WE SHOULD BE RESPONDING TO THAT?
EBERSTADT: FOR HUMANITARIAN REASONS, THE EXTENT OF THE
FAMINE IS PROBABLY THE KEY QUESTION AT THE
MOMENT. AND WE DON'T KNOW HOW TERRIBLE ITS
HUMAN TOLL HAS ACTUALLY BEEN.
HOST: WHERE DOES THE TWO MILLION ESTIMATE COME FROM?
EBERSTADT: THE TWO MILLION NUMBER COMES FROM EDUCATED
GUESSES BY RELIEF WORKERS, BY PEOPLE WHO HAVE
TALKED TO BORDER-CROSSERS. THE REASON WE DON'T
KNOW EXACTLY HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE DIED IS
BECAUSE THE NORTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT, WHICH HAS
BEEN RECEIVING WESTERN AID FOR FOUR YEARS, HAS
REFUSED TO DIVULGE TO THOSE AID WORKERS
PRECISELY THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS CATASTROPHE. I
THINK WE'RE PROBABLY PRETTY SAFE IN SAYING THAT
THE DEATH TOLL HAS BEEN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
HORRENDOUS AND ABSOLUTELY CATASTROPHIC. AND IF
YOU'RE AN OPTIMIST, YOU SAY IT'S BEEN MERELY
HORRENDOUS.
HOST: THERE WAS A RECENT NEWS STORY THAT NORTH KOREA
MAY RUN OUT OF FOOD AS EARLY AS THE END OF THIS
MONTH AND THERE BASICALLY WON'T BE ANYTHING
UNTIL THE HARVEST.
OBERDORFER: THAT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR. I MEAN ABOUT THIS TIME
THEY RUN OUT OF THE FOOD
HOST: SO, MORE PEOPLE DIE?
OBERDORFER: AND MORE PEOPLE DIE, YES.
LILLEY: I WOULD SAY ON THE FOOD BUSINESS, THERE IS A
SORT OF DIFFERENCE AMONG PEOPLE ABOUT HOW OUR
FOOD AID SHOULD BE USED. SOME OF US FEEL IT
SHOULD BE LINKED TO SOME KIND OF ECONOMIC
REFORM. OTHER PEOPLE FEEL IT SHOULD BE DONE ON
A HUMANITARIAN BASIS ONLY.
HOST: AND WHAT DO YOU THINK?
LILLEY: IT SHOULD BE LINKED.
HOST: IN WHAT WAY?
LILLEY: IT SHOULD BE LINKED IN TERMS OF: THEY WOULD
ACCEPT A PROGRAM OF AGRICULTURAL REFORM,
FERTILIZER, DAMS, IRRIGATION, REFORESTATION, AND
PUT SOME OF THE MONEY THAT PERHAPS WE'RE PUTTING
INTO FOOD TO GET THEM TO USE IT TO IMPROVE THEIR
SYSTEM. WE'VE STARTED A LITTLE BIT ON THIS IN
OUR POTATO BUSINESS. WE'RE GOING TO TRY TO
TEACH THEM HOW TO GROW POTATOES. I THINK THAT'S
A GOOD MOVE. THE OTHER THING I'D SAY IS FOR THE
FIRST TIME, ALTHOUGH WE DENY IT OFFICIALLY IN
THE UNITED STATES, IS THAT KUMCHANG-NI SITE
ACCESS -- WE ALSO AGREED TO GIVE THEM SIX
HUNDRED THOUSAND TONS OF GRAIN. WE SAY THERE'S
ABSOLUTELY NO CONNECTION. THEY SAY THERE'S A
DEFINITE CONNECTION. SO FOR THE FIRST TIME, IF
YOU WANT TO LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, WE'VE
LINKED FOOD AID TO SOMETHING THAT THEY DO. IT'S
NOT STRICTLY HUMANITARIAN.
HOST: BUT DIDN'T WE LINK IN THE 1994 AGREED FRAMEWORK
TREMENDOUS AID TO WHAT THEY WERE GOING TO DO IN
TERMS OF FUEL AID AND THE CONSTRUCTION OF THESE
TWO REACTORS?
EBERSTADT: THE 1994 AGREED FRAMEWORK WASN'T AN AGREEMENT.
THE PEOPLE WHO HAMMERED IT OUT WILL TELL YOU ANY
HOUR OF THE DAY OR NIGHT THAT YOU TALK TO THEM
THAT THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN AGREEMENT. THERE
IS NO BINDING OBLIGATORY POWER, CONTRACTUAL
POWER IN THAT FRAMEWORK. IT'S LIKE PARALLEL
PLAY. IT'S WHAT TWO SIDES CAN DO IF THEY BOTH
AGREE THAT THIS IS WHAT THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE
DOING.
HOST: BUT, MR. OBERDORFER, AREN'T THEY BOTH DOING IT?
OBERDORFER: IT IS AN AGREEMENT. IT'S NOT A TREATY, BUT IT'S
CLEARLY AN AGREEMENT, REACHED BY TWO NATIONS IN
WHICH THEY UNDERTOOK CERTAIN OBLIGATIONS. THE
UNITED STATES UNDERTOOK CERTAIN OBLIGATIONS;
NORTH KOREA UNDERTOOK CERTAIN OBLIGATIONS. IT
IS NOT A TREATY BECAUSE THE ADMINISTRATION WAS
AFRAID TO SUBMIT IT TO THE U.S. SENATE FOR
RATIFICATION, BUT IT CLEARLY IS AN AGREEMENT.
HOST: WELL, LET ME ASK YOU THOUGH, ARE THE PARTIES
MEETING THEIR OBLIGATIONS?
OBERDORFER: WELL, I BELIEVE THEY ARE. I THINK THAT NORTH
KOREA HAS FROZEN ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM AT
YONGBYON. AMBASSADOR LILLEY FEELS THAT THEY MAY
BE CARRYING IT ON IN SOME OTHER GUISE, IN SOME
OTHER PLACE, BUT WE DON'T HAVE EVIDENCE OF THAT.
HOST: EVEN IF THEY DO IT, WOULD THAT PUT THEM IN
VIOLATION?
OBERDORFER: YES, IT WOULD BECAUSE THERE ARE CONFIDENTIAL
PARTS OF THIS AGREEMENT WHICH SAY YOU CAN'T DO
THE SAME THING SOMEPLACE ELSE.
HOST: I WOULD LIKE TO GET YOUR REACTION TO WHAT
AMBASSADOR LILLEY SAID IN LINKING HUMANITARIAN
ASSISTANCE WITH POLICY CHANGES. DO YOU THINK
THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION OR THAT WE SHOULD
JUST GIVE HUMANITARIAN AID BECAUSE OF THE SCALE
OF THIS DISASTER.
OBERDORFER: I THINK ITS A NICE OBJECTIVE, BUT I DO NOT
BELIEVE NORTH KOREA WOULD ACCEPT IT. AND I
DON'T THINK IT'S FEASIBLE OR MORALLY RIGHT FOR
US TO DENY THE PEOPLE HUMANITARIAN AID BECAUSE
THEIR GOVERNMENT WILL NOT AGREE AS PART OF IT TO
ACCEPT CERTAIN ECONOMIC REFORMS. AND I DON'T
THINK, IF ITS DONE IN THAT WAY, THEY WOULD
ACCEPT IT.
HOST: WHAT ABOUT THE WAY IN WHICH THIS FOOD AID IS
BEING USED? WE KNOW LAST YEAR THAT SOME GREAT
HUMANITARIAN GROUPS, SUCH AS DOCTORS WITHOUT
BORDERS, PULLED OUT. AND ACCORDING TO FRANCOIS
JEAN OF THAT ORGANIZATION, HE SAID, QUOTE,
"THERE IS A COMPLETE CONTRADICTION BETWEEN THE
LOGIC OF HUMANITARIAN AID AND THE LOGIC OF THE
NORTH KOREAN REGIME," UNQUOTE, MEANING THE AID
THEY RECEIVED WAS NOT DISTRIBUTED IN THE WAY IN
WHICH THE HUMANITARIAN GROUP WANTED IT, BUT WAS
USED FOR POLITICAL PURPOSES WITHIN THE REGIME.
EBERSTADT: HUMANITARIAN WORKERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OPERATE
UNDER CONDITIONS WHERE THE REGIME'S LOGIC IS AT
ODDS WITH THEIRS. IN NORTH KOREA, HOWEVER, I
THINK WE HAVE A BIG PROBLEM BECAUSE THE TWO BIG
PRECEPTS OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE ARE
IMPARTIALITY AND NON-DISCRIMINATION. AND THE
RELIEF WORKERS WHO HAVE BEEN DISTRIBUTING
HUMANITARIAN FOOD AID FROM THE WEST CANNOT
GUARANTEE THAT THOSE TWO PRECEPTS HAVE BEEN MET.
AND INDEED, THIS WHOLE RUMOR, MAYBE MORE THAN
RUMOR, THAT THERE ARE SEPTEMBER 27TH CAMPS WHERE
PEOPLE WHO ARE TRYING TO SAVE THEMSELVES FROM
DESPERATE HUNGER ARE BEING INTERNED IN NORTH
KOREA WOULD SPEAK TO THAT. MY PROBLEM WITH THE
WAY HUMANITARIAN AID IS BEING ADMINISTERED IN
THE D-P-R-K TODAY IS THAT IT'S NOT INTRUSIVE
ENOUGH. THE RELIEF ORGANIZATIONS CANNOT BE SURE
THAT THEY ARE REACHING THE NEEDY BECAUSE THEY
ARE NOT BEING GIVEN INFORMATION ABOUT THE
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS ITSELF. IF THE HUMANITARIAN
ORGANIZATIONS ACCEPT THIS AS A PRECEDENT FOR
THEIR WORK, IT HAS VERY OMINOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR
THE FUTURE. WHAT HAPPENS, LET'S SAY, WHEN
PRESIDENT [VLADIMIR] ZHIRINOVSKY TAKES OVER THE
RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND CLOSES OFF SOME OBLASTS
AND SAYS THERE IS A HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE
THERE, BUT JUST GIVE ME THE FOOD AND I'LL TAKE
CARE OF THIS.
HOST: ALL RIGHT, I WANT TO MOVE NOW TO THE QUESTION OF
SOUTH KOREA AND THE POLICY THAT'S BEING PURSUED
BY PRESIDENT KIM DAE JUNG, THE SO-CALLED
SUNSHINE POLICY. WHAT'S THE EFFECT OF THAT BEEN
AND DO YOU THAT'S A PRUDENT POLICY TO BE
PURSUING?
OBERDORFER: WELL, IT'S A POLICY OF ENGAGING NORTH KOREA, NOT
CONFRONTING NORTH KOREA. I'VE KNOWN MR. KIM FOR
OVER TWENTY-FIVE YEARS, AND HE'S ALWAYS HAD THIS
VIEW. AND HE HAS IT NOW. AND HE CAME INTO
OFFICE ANNOUNCING THAT WE WILL NOT SEEK TO
EITHER UNDERMINE OR ABSORB NORTH KOREA, WHICH IS
A BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DESIRES OF SOUTH
KOREAN GOVERNMENTS. IS IT WORKING? WELL, HE
HAS SEPARATED BUSINESS FROM POLITICS, AS HE PUTS
IT, AND SOME SOUTH KOREAN GROUPS, NOTABLY THE
HYUNDAI ORGANIZATION, HAVE GONE UP TO NORTH
KOREA. THEY'RE DOING BUSINESS, THEY'RE BRINGING
TOURISTS IN, THEY WANT TO CREATE A BIG ECONOMIC
ZONE. NORTH KOREA HAS NOT TAKEN ANY STEP TOWARD
RECOGNIZING FURTHER OR DEALING EFFICIENTLY WITH
SOUTH KOREA, WHICH IS WHAT KIM DAE JUNG WOULD
LIKE TO HAPPEN. NEITHER HAVE THEY TAKEN ANY
MAJOR HUMANITARIAN STEP, BUT HE PERSISTS IN
BELIEVING THIS IS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS
PROBLEM. WE'RE NOT READY TO ABSORB NORTH KOREA,
EVEN IF WE WANTED TO, AND WE DON'T WANT TO. SO,
THE POLICY IS THERE. I THINK IT IS BEING
PURSUED VIGOROUSLY. AND YOU CAN ARGUE WHETHER,
IN THE END, IT WILL WORK. HE IS QUITE
CONFIDENT, AS HE TOLD ME IN FEBRUARY, THAT IN
THE END THIS WILL WORK AND THAT NORTH KOREA WILL
CHANGE BECAUSE OF THIS POLICY. WHETHER IT WILL
OR NOT, NOBODY COULD TELL.
HOST: WELL, TO DATE, AMBASSADOR LILLEY, NORTH KOREA
HAS NOT ABJURED ITS OBJECTIVE OF REUNITING WITH
THE SOUTH ON ITS TERMS.
LILLEY: I THINK NORTH KOREA HAS THIS AS A CRUSADE THAT
APPEARS IN ALL OF THEIR BOOKS AND CONSTITUTION
-- THEIR SACRED TASK TO LIBERATE THE SOUTH FROM
OPPRESSORS. BUT I WOULD SAY THAT THE UNITED
STATES ROLE NOW IS REALLY TWO-FOLD, I THINK
MAINLY. FIRST IS THE DETERRENCE OF NORTH KOREAN
MILITARY ADVENTURISM. I THINK THAT'S ABSOLUTELY
KEY. WE HAVE TO DO THAT. AND SECOND, I THINK
WE HAVE TO CHECK THEIR PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS
OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
HOST: THEY RECENTLY OFFERED TO DO THAT FOR A CERTAIN
PRICE.
LILLEY: YES, BUT WE'VE GOT TO GET MUCH TOUGHER ON THAT.
AND WE'VE GOT TO GO AFTER THEM ON THIS. [DEPUTY
ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE ROBERT] EINHORN IS
BACK NOW, HE'S THE NEGOTIATOR. WE'RE GOING TO
TALK TO HIM TOMORROW ABOUT THE WHOLE MISSILE
BUSINESS. BUT I THINK IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT
THE U-S LEAVE THE ECONOMIC PORTIONS UP TO KIM
DAE JUNG. HE'S MUCH BETTER AT IT THAN WE HAVE
BEEN. DESPITE WHAT MR. OBERDORFER SAYS, I THINK
WE'VE DONE A TERRIBLE JOB IN CREATING NORTH
KOREAN EXPECTATIONS FOR HUGE GIFTS OF FOOD,
WHICH THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND. THEY THINK WE'RE
ABSOLUTELY OUT OF OUR MINDS, THAT WE'RE POURING
THIS FOOD ON THEM, AS THEY THREATEN AND SHAKE
THEIR FISTS IN OUR FACE. I MEAN IT'S
INCONCEIVABLE TO THEM THAT WE'RE THIS GULLIBLE.
AND IF WE DON'T MAKE CONDITIONS, THEY'RE GOING
TO BE TOUGH AND REJECT IT. BUT THERE'S NO OTHER
WAY YOU CAN DEAL WITH THEM ON THIS. AND I THINK
KIM DAE JUNG WILL DO A MUCH BETTER JOB WITH
THESE TOUGH, SMART, EXPERIENCED KOREAN
BUSINESSMEN IN GETTING IN THERE AND GETTING SOME
SORT OF QUID PRO QUO FROM THE NORTH KOREANS.
HOST: WHAT ARE THE THINGS THAT WOULD PRODUCE THE
GREATEST FEAR ON THE PART OF THE UNITED STATES?
GEORGE TENET, THE DIRECTOR OF THE C-I-A,
TESTIFIED RECENTLY SAYING THAT NORTH KOREA IS IN
AN INCREDIBLY UNSTABLE SITUATION TODAY, AND THAT
THEY ARE ENGAGING IN RISKY BRINKSMANSHIP. AND
THAT THERE IS NO END IN SIGHT TO THEIR EXERCISE
OF THIS BRINKSMANSHIP, WHICH THEY MAY ENGAGE IN
BECAUSE IT'S INDEED THE ONLY THING THEY HAVE AND
IT PRODUCES TREMENDOUS REWARDS FOR THEM. COULD
I HAVE YOUR REACTION, NICK EBERSTADT?
EBERSTADT: WELL, WHAT CAUSES DISCOMFORT IN NORTH KOREA'S
NEIGHBORS AND FOR THE GREAT POWERS OF THE
PACIFIC ARE NOT NECESSARILY THINGS THAT MAKE THE
NORTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT UNCOMFORTABLE. FAR FROM
IT, THE NORTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT HAS DECIDED
THAT, RATHER THAN EMBARK UPON ECONOMIC REFORM TO
DATE, IT WOULD RATHER DECLINE ECONOMICALLY, EVEN
ENDURE HUNGER OR FAMINE DOMESTICALLY. AND IT'S
QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THIS DECLINE, ATTEMPTING TO
DEVELOP EXTORTIONARY TECHNIQUES, ROCKETS THAT
MAY EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO REACH THE UNITED
STATES, WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. IT'S VERY
HARD FOR ME TO IMAGINE THREE THINGS: HOW THE
NORTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT WOULD VOLUNTARILY QUIT
ITS MISSILE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM; HOW IT WOULD
VOLUNTARILY FORSWEAR DEVELOPMENT OF ATOMIC
WEAPONS; AND HOW IT WOULD RECOGNIZE THE SOUTH
KOREAN GOVERNMENT AS A LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT. I
JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND HOW THEY WOULD DO IT.
HOST CAN YOU SEE ANY OF THOSE THREE THINGS COMING
TRUE AND IF SO, UNDER WHAT TERMS?
OBERDORFER: TWO OF THEM HAVE ALREADY HAPPENED.
HOST: WHICH TWO?
OBERDORFER: THE LATTER TWO. THEY'VE SIGNED AGREEMENTS WITH
SOUTH KOREA. THEY STARTED MEETING WITH SOUTH
KOREA IN 1972, AND IN 1991 THE AUTHORITIES OF
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA SIGNED A LONG, LONG
AGREEMENT. I MEAN IT COVERS ALL KINDS OF
THINGS. BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED, BUT IT
WAS SIGNED. BUT AS FAR AS RECOGNIZING THEM,
THEY RECOGNIZE THEM. THEY DON'T ACCEPT -- THEY
INSIST THAT THEY SHOULD RULE THE WHOLE
PENINSULA, AS DOES THE SOUTH. BUT THEY DEAL
WITH THEM, AND AS FAR AS THE NUCLEAR THING IS
CONCERNED, AS I SAID, THEY HAVE AGREED TO FREEZE
THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM. YOU CAN SAY WELL, THEY
DON'T REALLY MEAN IT.
HOST: WHAT IF THEY ARE LYING?
OBERDORFER: WHAT IF THEY ARE LYING? BUT THEY HAVE
INSPECTORS. UNITED NATIONS HAS INSPECTORS AT
YONGBYON, THEY ARE UP THERE RIGHT NOW, LOOKING
AT THAT FACILITY. THE U-S INTELLIGENCE
DISCOVERED THAT, AT ANOTHER PLACE, WHICH YOU
REFERRED TO AS KUMCHANG-NI, THEY WERE DOING
THINGS THAT LOOKED AS IF THEY WERE PREPARING FOR
ANOTHER KIND OF NUCLEAR FACILITY. AND SOMEBODY
BLEW THE WHISTLE AND SAID, HEY WE CAN'T HAVE
THIS, SO THERE WAS A NEGOTIATION AND NOW IT'S
GOING TO BE INSPECTED.
HOST: I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS
WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- DON
OBERDORFER FROM THE JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF
ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES; FORMER U.S.
AMBASSADOR TO SOUTH KOREA JAMES LILLEY; AND
NICHOLAS EBERSTADT, AUTHOR OF THE END OF NORTH
KOREA -- FOR JOINING ME TO DISCUSS THE
CONTINUING CRISIS IN NORTH KOREA. THIS IS
ROBERT REILLY FOR ON THE LINE.
09-Apr-99 12:03 PM EDT (1603 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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