DATE=12/24/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42229
TITLE=NORTH KOREA YEARENDER
BYLINE=AMY BICKERS
DATELINE=HONG KONG
CONTENT=VOICED AT:
INTRO: NORTH KOREA'S RELATIONS WITH ITS ASIAN NEIGHBORS REMAIN
TENSE, AND THE COUNTRY IS STILL TECHNICALLY AT WAR WITH SOUTH
KOREA. DESPITE SOME UNPRECEDENTED CONTACT ACROSS THE DIVIDED
PENINSULA THIS YEAR, PYONGYANG'S AGGRESSIVE STANCE HAS KEPT
RELATIONS FROM IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY. AMY BICKERS LOOKS BACK
AT SOME OF THE MAJOR EVENTS IN NORTH KOREA DURING THE LAST YEAR.
TEXT: NORTH KOREA REMAINS THE PARIAH OF ASIA. IT IS ONE OF THE
POOREST AND MOST ISOLATED OF THE REGION'S COUNTRIES. 1998 MARKED
THE REOPENING OF NORTH KOREA'S FORMAL POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
THAT HAD BEEN SUSPENDED AFTER THE DEATH OF FORMER LEADER KIM IL
SUNG.
HIS SON, KIM JONG IL, WAS CONFIRMED AS THE CHAIRMAN OF THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE COMMISSION-- THAT MEANS HE NOW RUNS THE COUNTRY,
BUT STILL SHUNS THE LIMELIGHT.
ANALYSTS SAY THE NDC'S FORMAL EMERGENCE AS THE HIGHEST ORGAN OF
THE STATE IS THE CLEAREST SIGN YET OF THE MILITARY'S PREDOMINANCE
IN NORTH KOREAN POLITICS.
FOOD SHORTAGES AND FLOODS BOTH PLAGUED THE NATION THIS YEAR--
BUT THE DEGREE OF THE CRISIS IS UNCLEAR. TWO FOREIGN RELIEF
GROUPS CLAIM THAT AS MANY AS THREE-MILLION PEOPLE-- MORE THAN
12-PERCENT OF THE ENTIRE POPULATION -- HAVE DIED OF HUNGER OR
RELATED DISEASES IN THE LAST THREE YEARS. MOST AID AGENCIES
REPORT THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVED IN 1998 THANKS TO THE
INTERNATIONAL RELIEF EFFORT.
POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR MASAO OKONOGI OF KEIO UNIVERSITY IN
TOKYO, SAYS PYONGYANG IS WILLING TO JUSTIFY STARVATION FOR
NATIONALISTIC PURPOSES.
/// OKONOGI ACT ///
THE SITUATION IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM FAMINE OR
STARVATION IN AFRICA AND OTHER DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES. NORTH KOREAN FAMINE IS CONTROLLED.
THEY ARE QUIETLY, CALMLY STARVING. SOME PEOPLE
IMAGINE STARVATION COULD LEAD TO A CHANGE OF
REGIME. BUT THEY NEVER LOSE CONTROL OF THE PEOPLE.
THE NORTH KOREAN REGIME IS A KIND OF STALINISTIC
REGIME PLUS A KOREAN TRADITIONAL AND RELIGIOUS
REGIME.
/// END ACT ///
NORTH KOREAN MEDIA REPORTED FLOOD DAMAGE TO CROPS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE AT SEVERAL POINTS IN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. HOWEVER,
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE FLOODS WERE NOT AS SEVERE AS IN
PREVIOUS YEARS .
SOUTH KOREA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AID TO ITS NORTHERN NEIGHBOR TO
HELP IT COMBAT FLOODS AND FAMINE. 1998 SAW SOME PROGRESS IN
THEIR TENSE RELATIONSHIP, BUT ANALYSTS SAY SUSPICION AND DISTRUST
ARE STILL SETTING THE TONE .
SOUTH KOREA'S NEW PRESIDENT IS PURSUING WHAT HE CALLS A SUNSHINE
POLICY WHICH EMPHASIZED DIALOGUE WITH THE NORTH, AND HAS EVEN
LED TO CROSS-BORDER TOURISM. BUT TWO INTRUSIONS BY NORTH KOREAN
VESSELS INTO SOUTH KOREAN WATERS THIS YEAR ANGERED SEOUL.
JAPAN, NORTH KOREA'S TOP TRADING PARTNER, WAS ALSO OUTRAGED BY
PYONGYANG WHEN IT FIRED A MULTI-STAGE ROCKET OVER JAPAN WITHOUT
ANY WARNING IN AUGUST. PYONGYANG CLAIMED IT WAS A HARMLESS
SATELLITE LAUNCH.
MR. OKONOGKI SAYS THE MOVE SUGGESTS THAT NORTH KOREA IS
DEVELOPING THE TECHNOLOGY TO MAKE LONG RANGE MISSILES OR EVEN
INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILES.
/// OKONOGI ACT ///
IF THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL IN DEVELOPING A BALLISTIC
MISSILE AND LATER THAT IS LINKED WITH THE NUCLEAR
WEAPONS THAT MEANS A SERIOUS SITUATION. THEY CAN
ALREADY COVER THE ENTIRE JAPANESE ARCHIPELAGO.
/// END ACT ///
THE UNITED STATES SAYS IT SUSPECTS NORTH KOREA IS DEVELOPING A
SECRET, UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR FACILITY. WASHINGTON IS DEMANDING
ACCESS FOR INSPECTORS TO THE SUSPECTED SITE, SAYING IT VIOLATES
AN EARLIER BILATERAL AGREEMENT.
PYONGYANG IS DEMANDING AN EASING OF U-S ECONOMIC SANCTIONS FOR
ALLOWING THE INSPECTION. THE TWO NATIONS PLAN TO RESUME TALKS ON
THE SUBJECT IN GENEVA NEXT MONTH. (SIGNED)
NEB/AB/PLM
24-Dec-98 7:30 AM EST (1230 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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