DATE=9/30/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41494
TITLE=NORTH KOREA'S MISSILE THREAT
BYLINE=PAMELA TAYLOR
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: U-S OFFICIALS ARE REASSESSING THE THREAT POSED BY A NORTH
KOREAN MISSILE LAUNCH OVER JAPAN LAST MONTH. ALTHOUGH A LAUNCH
WAS EXPECTED, THE TECHNOLOGY USED HAS RAISED ALARMS ABOUT NORTH
KOREA'S POTENTIAL ABILITY TO SEND NUCLEAR WARHEADS TO DISTANT
TARGETS, INCLUDING U-S TERRITORY. VOA'S PAMELA TAYLOR HAS THIS
BACKGROUND REPORT.
TEXT: THE UNITED STATES HAS LONG BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT NORTH
KOREA'S PURSUIT OF A LONG RANGE MISSILE CAPABLE OF THREATENING
DISTANT TARGETS. BUT U-S INTELLIGENCE EXPERTS MAINTAIN SUCH A
MISSILE LAUNCH WOULD LIKELY BE DETECTED WELL IN ADVANCE. THE
AUGUST 31ST MISSILE LAUNCH WASN'T A SURPRISE, BUT THE USE OF A
THREE STAGE LAUNCH TECHNOLOGY WAS. IN THEORY, THE THIRD STAGE
COULD CARRY A HEAVIER PAYLOAD SUCH AS A SMALL WARHEAD. BUT NORTH
KOREA CLAIMS ITS ONLY OBJECTIVE WAS TO PUT A HARMLESS SATELLITE
INTO ORBIT.
STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN JAMES RUBIN SAID PUTTING EVEN A SMALL
SATELLITE INTO ORBIT INDICATES THE DIFFICULTIES INVOLVED IN
LAUNCHING SOMETHING LARGER:
/// RUBIN ACT 1 ///
(RUBIN) ON A BASIC PHYSICS LEVEL, HAVING LAUNCHED A
VERY SMALL PAYLOAD TO THIS RANGE, ONE SHOULD NOT ASSUME
THAT THEY COULD CARRY A BIGGER PAYLOAD TO THE SAME RANGE
OR LONGER. SO WE HAVE NOT YET CONCLUDED THAT THIS TEST
SHOW THEIR ABILITY TO THREATEN ANY PART OF THE UNITED
STATES. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT IS AN EXTREMELY WORRYSOME
DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXTENT THAT NORTH KOREA IS SPENDING
ITS SCARCE RESOURCES ON THESE DANGEROUS MISSILE
PROGRAMS.
/// END RUBIN ACT ///
IN A SPEECH TO THE U-N GENERAL ASSEMBLY IN NEW YORK MONDAY, NORTH
KOREAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER CHOE SU HON CALLED THE MISSILE
LAUNCH A SUCCESS. HE SAID THE TECHNOLOGY USED WAS 100 PERCENT
NORTH KOREAN AND THAT IT WILL MAKE A GREAT CONTRIBUTION TO
SAFEGUARDING WORLD PEACE.
BUT NORTH KOREA'S NEIGHBORS IN THE REGION ARE UNLIKELY TO BE
REASSURED. IN HIS SPEECH TO THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY, SOUTH KOREAN
FOREIGN MINISTER HONG SOON-YOUNG URGED THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY TO STEP UP PRESSURE ON NORTH KOREA TO SIGN ON TO GLOBAL
DISARMAMENT TREATIES.
AT THE ANNUAL SECURITY CONSULTATION TALKS BETWEEN JAPANESE AND
AMERICAN FOREIGN AND DEFENSE MINISTERS IN NEW YORK LAST WEEK,
SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT SAID THE UNITED STATES AND
JAPAN MUST HONOR THEIR AGREEMENT TO PROVIDE FUNDS FOR THE KOREAN
PENINSULAR DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION, OR KEDO.
// ALBRIGHT ACT 2 //
WE ALSO TAKE THE NORTH KOREAN MISSILE LAUNCH VERY
SERIOUSLY AND CONSIDER IT A DANGEROUS WAY OF
MOVING FORWARD AND HAVE MADE THAT VERY CLEAR TO
THE NORTH KOREANS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO.
(HOWEVER) WE BELIEVE THAT IT IS NOT A SOLUTION TO
THE MISSILE ISSUE NOT TO LIVE UP TO (HONOR) KEDO.
// END ACT //
U-S OFFICIALS SAY THE CLINTON POLICY TOWARD NORTH KOREA WILL
CONTINUE UNCHANGED DESPITE THE MISSILE LAUNCH IN AUGUST. FOR THE
PAST FIVE YEARS, THAT POLICY HAS MEANT PURSUING ENGAGEMENT WITH
COMMUNIST NORTH KOREA TO REDUCE TENSIONS AND KEEP ITS NUCLEAR
ACTIVITIES IN CHECK. BUT THAT POLICY CAME IN FOR SOME STRONG
CRITICISM AT A CONGRESSIONAL HEARING IN WASHINGTON LAST WEEK.
BENJAMIN GILMAN IS CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
COMMITTEE:
/// GILMAN ACT 3///
(GILMAN) OUR POLICIES HAVE NOT BEEN SUCCESSFUL, UNDER
THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION POLICY WE ARE PAYING FOR BAD
BEHAVIOUR BY REWARDING NORTH KOREAN BRINKSMANSHIP WITH
BENIFITS. NORTH KOREA IS NOW THE LARGEST RECIPIENT OF US
FOREIGN AID IN EAST ASIA. AND IN RESPONSE TO RECENT
NORTH KOREAN PROVOCATIONS THE ADMINISTRATION PROPOSES
ONLY TO INCREASE THE LEVEL OF ASSISTANCE. OUR CURRENT
POLICY OF WEAKNESS MAY LEAD THE NORTH KOREANS TO
MISCALCULATE OUR RESOLVE.
/// END GILMAN ACT ///
U-S POLICY TOWARD NORTH KOREA IS ALSO SEEN AS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS BY ANALYSTS LIKE JOSEPH ARMENIO, OF THE WASHINGTON
BASED NATIONAL COALITION FOR DEFENSE. HE TOLD VOA'S MEREDITH BUEL
THAT NORTH KOREA POSES ONE OF THE GREAT DANGERS OF OUR TIMES:
/// ARMENIO/BUEL INTERVIEW ACT 4 ///
(ARMENIO) THE NORTH KOREANS ALREADY COULD IN EFFECT WAGE
NUCLEAR WAR AGAINST JAPAN. JAPAN HAS A LARGE NUMBER OF
OPERATIONAL NUCLEAR REACTORS ON THEIR SOIL. IF THE NORTH
KOREANS WERE TO TARGET THOSE REACTORS WITH THEIR
MISSILES THE DETONATION OF ONE OF THESE REACTORS COULD
CAUSE A CATASTROPHE OF THE KIND WE SAW IN CHERNOBLE,
RUSSIA, IN THE 1980'S. ALSO A MISTAKE MAY OCCUR AND THE
MISSILE COULD COME DOWN ON JAPANESE SOIL, IT MIGHT HIT
JAPANESE VESSELS, OR OTHER COUNTRIES' VESSELS IN THE
SURROUNDING WATERS, AND ULTIMATLY THERE IS THE THREAT TO
US. THERE ARE THOSE WHO BELIEVE NORTH KOREA WILL BE
ABLE TO HIT TARGETS IN ALASKA AND HAWAII IN AS LITTLE AS
TWO YEARS TIME, AND SOON AFTER THAT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO
HIT TARGETS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
NORTH KOREANS ALREADY CAN TARGET ANYTHING IN JAPAN AND
SOUTH KOREA.
(BUEL) WHAT IF ANY DEFENSE DOES JAPAN HAVE AGAINST
NORTH KOREAN MISSILES?
(ARMENIO) IT HAS NO DEFENSE WHATSOEVER. JAPAN IS AS
DEFENSELESS AGAINST NORTH KOREAN MISSILE ATTACK AS THE
UNITED STATES. NEITHER JAPAN NOR THE UNITED STATES CAN
STOP A SINGLE BALLISTIC MISSILE FIRED AT THEIR HOMELAND.
FURTHERMORE OUR TROOPS IN THE FIELD IN SOUTH KOREA HAVE
ONLY THE PATRIOT DEFENSE. THIS IS WOEFULLY INADEQUATE,
IT ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA INDEED AND WOULD HAVE
TROUBLE KEEPING UP WITH THESE HIGH SPEED MISSILES.
//OPT// (BUEL) IS NORTH KOREA SELLING ITS MISSILE
TECHNOLOGY TO OTHER COUNTRIES?
(ARMENIO) OH, INDEED IT IS. IT HAS BEEN HEAVILY INVOLVED
WITH THE SALE TO MUSLIM POWERS, ESPECIALLY IRAN. INFACT
BOTH CHINA AND NORTH KOREA ARE BOTH HELPING TO ARM IRAN.
//END OPT//
/// END ACT ///
U-S OFFICIALS ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT MAY BE A NORTH KOREAN
EFFORT TO BUILD AN UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR COMPLEX. THE OFFICIALS SAY
THEY WILL DEMAND ACCESS TO THE SITE WHEN U-S AND NORTH KOREAN
NEGOTIATORS MEET FOR TALKS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
NEB/PAM/DB/WFR
30-Sep-98 4:15 PM EDT (2015 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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