DATE=09/19/98
TYPE=ON THE LINE
NUMBER=1-00671
TITLE=DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT=
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES
POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS WEEK,
"DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA." HERE IS YOUR HOST,
ROBERT REILLY.
HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. NORTH KOREA,
ONE OF THE LAST TOTALITARIAN COMMUNIST REGIMES
IN THE WORLD, RECENTLY CELEBRATED ITS FIFTIETH
ANNIVERSARY BY LAUNCHING A THREE-STAGE MISSILE
OVER JAPAN AND INTO THE PACIFIC. THE PURPORTED
PURPOSE OF THE LAUNCH WAS TO PUT INTO ORBIT A
SATELLITE TO BROADCAST "IMMORTAL REVOLUTIONARY
HYMNS" IN HONOR OF ITS PARAMOUNT RULER, KIM JONG
IL, AND HIS FATHER KIM IL SUNG, WHO DIED IN
1994. IN 1994, THE U.S NEGOTIATED AN ACCORD
WITH NORTH KOREA TO HALT ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS
PROGRAM. RECENT ACTIVITIES AT A SUSPECTED NEW
NUCLEAR WEAPONS PLANT HAVE RAISED QUESTIONS
ABOUT THE NORTH KOREA'S ADHERENCE TO THAT
ACCORD.
JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS THE RECENT ACTIONS
OF NORTH KOREA ARE TWO EXPERTS. JAMES LILLEY IS
DIRECTOR OF ASIAN STUDIES AT THE AMERICAN
ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE, AND A FORMER U.S.
AMBASSADOR TO CHINA AND THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH
KOREA. AND DAVID BROWN, A FORMER U.S. STATE
DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL, IS SENIOR ASSOCIATE WITH
THE ASIA PACIFIC POLICY CENTER. GENTLEMEN,
WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.
AMBASSADOR LILLEY, LET ME BEGIN WITH YOUR
INTERPRETATION OF RECENT EVENTS IN NORTH KOREA,
PARTICULARLY THE PROVOCATIVE LAUNCH OF THIS
MISSILE, WHICH THEY DIDN'T EVEN BOTHER TO GIVE
AN EXPLANATION FOR TILL FIVE DAYS AFTER IT
HAPPENED.
LILLEY: NORTH KOREA IS A VERY CUNNING COUNTRY WITH A
VERY POOR HAND, IN TERMS OF ITS ECONOMIC
SITUATION, BUT A VERY POWERFUL MILITARY CARD TO
PLAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THEY HAVE DEVELOPED THE
HABIT OF USING MILITARY THREATS AND INTIMIDATION
IN ORDER TO GET CONCESSIONS FROM US. THIS
PARTICULAR SHOT WAS TO DEMONSTRATE TO VARIOUS
COUNTRIES THAT ARE CONTESTING THEM THAT THEY
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO HIT A NUMBER OF ISLANDS
IF THEY SHOULD CHOOSE AND ALSO, OF COURSE, TO
CELEBRATE KIM JONG IL'S ASCENSION TO POWER AS
HEAD OF THE NATIONAL DEFENSE COMMISSION. SO I
THINK THERE ARE A MULTIPLE OF OBJECTIVES. AND
RIGHT NOW, I THINK THEY'RE BARGAINING WITH US
VERY HARD ON WHAT WE WILL DO TO CURB THEIR
MISSILE PROLIFERATION AND THEIR MISSILE
DEVELOPMENTS, AND ALSO TO GAIN ACCESS TO THEIR
ALLEGED SECRET UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR WEAPONS
FACILITY.
HOST: MR. BROWN, WHAT'S YOUR READING OF THAT EVENT?
BROWN: I THINK I'M MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH JIM. THIS
HAD BOTH MESSAGES FOR THE OUTSIDE WORLD, WHICH
ARE DISTURBING AND THREATENING, AND IT WAS PART
OF THE CELEBRATION OF THE FIFTIETH ANNIVERSARY.
AND IN A WAY IT WAS THE KOREAN PEOPLE'S ARMY'S
PRESENT TO KIM JONG IL. KIM FORMALLY ELEVATED
THEM TO THE MOST IMPORTANT INSTITUTION IN
SOCIETY BY SAYING THAT THE NATIONAL DEFENSE
COMMISSION IS THE HIGHEST ORGAN OF STATE POWER.
AND HE MADE HIMSELF THE CHAIRMAN OF THAT. AND
IN A WAY, THE MILITARY WAS SAYING, IN A SOCIETY
WHICH IS COMPLETELY FAILING IN EVERY OTHER WAY,
WE'RE THE ONE INSTITUTION THAT CAN PRODUCE
SOMETHING FOR YOU. AND THAT'S A VERY TROUBLING
MIXTURE IN MY MIND.
HOST: AMBASSADOR LILLEY, WHAT ABOUT THE LAUNCH ITSELF.
WAS THIS ANOTHER SHOCK TO THE U.S. AND WEST
EUROPEAN INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY? RECENTLY,
THERE WAS UPSET OVER INDIAN NUCLEAR TESTS,
PAKISTAN, AND NOW A MISSILE THAT WE WEREN'T SURE
NORTH KOREA EVEN HAD.
LILLEY: WE KNEW THEY HAD THE NO DONG AND THE TAEPO DONG
THIS WAS A TAEPO DONG. I'M NOT SURE IF IT WAS A
ONE OR A TWO. IT WAS A THREE-STAGE MISSILE
WHICH WAS, I THINK, A LITTLE BEYOND OUR
EXPECTATIONS. I THINK WE KNEW SLIGHTLY IN
ADVANCE THAT THEY WERE GOING TO MAKE THE SHOT.
AND WE NOTIFIED THE JAPANESE. BUT I THINK,
AGAIN, IT CAUGHT US SOMEWHAT BY SURPRISE, THE
SCOPE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO. AND I GATHER RIGHT
NOW, BECAUSE THEY BEGAN TO RECOVER SOME OF THE
DEBRIS, IT WENT LONGER THAN WE THOUGHT. IT WAS
INTO THE THREE-THOUSAND-MILE RANGE, WHICH IS
PRETTY FORMIDABLE.
HOST: AND EVEN THOUGH THEY DIDN'T BOTHER TO SAY TILL
FIVE DAYS AFTER THE LAUNCH THAT THERE WAS A
SATELLITE ON IT, APPARENTLY THERE WAS A FAILED
ATTEMPT.
LILLEY: IT LOOKS LIKE A FAILED ATTEMPT, BECAUSE NOBODY
PICKED UP THE SIGNALS. I THINK IT WAS AT TWENTY
SEVEN MEGAHERTZ. THEY HAD A SIGNAL ON IT. AND
NOBODY PICKED IT UP. AND WE SHOULD HAVE PICKED
IT UP. AND WE HAD THE ABILITY TO SPOT A
SATELLITE IN ORBIT. THEY SAID A HUNDRED THIRTY
SIX MILES ABOVE THE EARTH IN ORBIT. WE LOOKED
AROUND AND WE COULDN'T FIND ANYTHING, SO IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT FAILED.
HOST: SO IF A SATELLITE OR RATHER A MISSILE LAUNCH OF
THAT SIGNIFICANCE HAD NO OVERT PURPOSE OTHER
THAN TO PLAY SOME REVOLUTIONARY TUNES IN OUTER
SPACE, WE HAVE TO SAY IT HAD A POLITICAL
PURPOSE. AND CERTAINLY THE POLITICAL IMPACT IT
HAD, PERHAPS, MR. BROWN, WAS GREATEST ON JAPAN.
IS THAT FAIR TO SAY?
BROWN: I THINK THAT'S VERY CLEAR, IN PART BECAUSE THE
JAPANESE ARE STILL SOMEWHAT NAIVE IN THEIR
APPROACH TO DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA, BUT ALSO
BECAUSE IT WAS A TEST RIGHT OVER THEIR
TERRITORY. AND WHAT IT CLEARLY CONVEYS IS THAT
NOT JUST PERHAPS SOME FRINGE AREAS OF JAPAN ARE
NOW SUBJECT TO THREAT BY A MISSILE CAPABILITY
FROM NORTH KOREA, BUT THE WHOLE OF THE JAPANESE
ISLANDS. IT'S ALSO INTERESTING, OF COURSE, THAT
THE SAME CAPABILITY COVERS ALMOST ALL OF THE
POPULATED AREAS OF CHINA. AND CHINA'S REACTION
HAS BEEN REMARKABLY RESTRAINED AND SUBDUED TO
THIS POINT.
HOST: AND ALSO PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES?
BROWN: POTENTIALLY EVEN TO THE UNITED STATES.
LILLEY: I'D LIKE TO ADD SOMETHING ON THAT. ONE OF THE
THINGS THAT CHINA HAS PUSHED VERY HARD ON IS TO
BE AGAINST THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE. WITH SOUTH
KOREA, WITH JAPAN, WITH TAIWAN, THEY'VE TAKEN A
VERY TOUGH POSITION ON THIS. WITH THE LAUNCHING
OF THIS NORTH KOREAN MISSILE, THE WHOLE ARGUMENT
ON THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE HAS BUBBLED UP IN
JAPAN AGAIN. AND THE SOUTH KOREANS HAVE TO LOOK
AT IT AGAIN. AND EVEN TAIWAN IS CONCERNED
BECAUSE THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE THROWN A MONKEY
WRENCH INTO CHINESE PLANS TO BLOCK T-M-D. THIS
ISN'T THE FIRST TIME THEY DID IT. THE FIRST
TIME WAS ON JUNE 25TH, 1950, WHEN THEY INVADED
SOUTH KOREA AND KNOCKED OFF CHINESE PLANS TO
TAKE TAIWAN. AND AMERICANS INTERVENED. BUT
AGAIN, THE NORTH KOREANS DO THEIR OWN THING
REGARDLESS OF WHAT THEIR NEIGHBORING POWERS CARE
ABOUT.
HOST: WHAT IS THEIR OWN THING? YOU'RE LOOKING AT A
NATION IN WHICH HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE
ARE STARVING A YEAR. THEY'RE SUPPOSEDLY
DEDICATING A FIFTEEN-THOUSAND-MAN FORCE TO THE
CONSTRUCTION OF THIS UNDERGROUND SUSPECTED
NUCLEAR PROCESSING SITE AND THEY'RE LAUNCHING
MISSILES.
BROWN: CLEARLY, THE NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP THINKS IT
CAN HAVE ITS CAKE AND EAT IT TOO, THAT THEY CAN
THREATEN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WITH
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS
AND, AT THE SAME TIME, HAVE THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THEM WITH FOOD AID
AND WITH FUEL. THIS IS A MESSAGE WHICH, I
THINK, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY NEEDS TO GET
VERY CLEARLY ACROSS TO THE NORTH KOREANS, THAT
THAT'S NOT A GAME THAT'S GOING TO WORK. YOU
HAVE TO ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE FACT THAT THE
NORTH KOREANS PROBABLY DON'T UNDERSTAND VERY
WELL THE IMPACT OF THEIR OWN ACTIONS ON THE
INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT THAT THEY'RE LIVING
IN, PARTICULARLY THIS POINT THAT JIM MENTIONED
ABOUT HOW A REACTION IN JAPAN OF FEELING
THREATENED IS GOING TO LEAD TO CLOSER DEFENSE
COOPERATION WITH THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IS
SOMETHING THE CHINESE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
PERSUADE JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES NOT TO DO.
THE CHINESE WERE NOT INFORMED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHOT AS THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE NOT BEEN
INFORMING THE CHINESE OF MOST OF THE OTHER
THINGS THEY HAVE DONE WHICH WERE REPREHENSIBLE,
SUCH AS SUBMARINE OPERATIONS OFF THE SOUTH
KOREAN COAST. AND ONE CAN ONLY HOPE THAT IN DUE
COURSE THAT CHINESE CONCERN ABOUT THIS TYPE OF
NORTH KOREAN BEHAVIOR WILL WORK TO THE ADVANTAGE
OF THE UNITED STATES.
HOST: THE JAPANESE MOST IMMEDIATELY, AMBASSADOR
LILLEY, HAVE SUSPENDED AID TO NORTH KOREA, HAVE
THEY NOT?
LILLEY: YES, THEY'VE TAKEN A MUCH TOUGHER APPROACH THAN
WE DID. THEY CANCELED THE CHARTERED FLIGHTS.
THEY SAID THEY WOULD REEXAMINE CONTRIBUTING
THEIR ONE BILLION DOLLARS TO THE LIGHT WATER
REACTORS. THEY CANCELED THEIR TALKS ON
NORMALIZATION. THEY HIT VERY HARD. BUT I'D
LIKE TO FOLLOW UP ON SOMETHING THAT DAVID SAID.
THE LOGIC OF THE AMERICAN POSITION HAS TO BE
LOOKED AT VERY CLOSELY. IF YOU, IN FACT, GIVE,
UNCONDITIONALLY, FOOD AID TO NORTH KOREA FOR
STARVING CHILDREN -- AND NOBODY'S AGAINST
FEEDING STARVING CHILDREN -- BUT THESE PEOPLE
ARE TAKING THEIR MONEY AND HAVING THESE GREAT
OCCASIONS, THESE OBSCENE MONUMENTS THEY BUILD.
THEY PUT THIRTY PERCENT OF THEIR G-N-P INTO
THEIR MILITARY. THEY FIRE THESE SHOTS. THEY
SELL ADVANCED MISSILES TO ENEMIES IN THE MIDDLE
EAST OF OURS. IT'S APPALLING THAT WE PUT MONEY
INTO THIS SYSTEM, SO THEY CAN TAKE THEIR MONEY
AND PUT IT INTO THE MILITARY.
HOST: BECAUSE FOOD IS FUNGIBLE?
LILLEY: AND THE LOGIC OF THIS IS QUESTIONABLE. BECAUSE
WE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO GIVE THEM THESE THREE
HUNDRED THOUSAND TONS [OF FOOD] AND THEY SAY
THAT THEY MIGHT GIVE US ACCESS TO THE
UNDERGROUND FACILITY.
HOST: IN FACT, I THINK WE'VE JUST INCREASED OUR
PROMISE OF SO MANY HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF
METRIC TONS. IS THAT THE RIGHT RESPONSE, MR.
BROWN?
BROWN: I THINK WE'RE DEALING WITH A DANGEROUS ADVERSARY
HERE. THAT'S INCREASINGLY CLEAR, EVEN TO THOSE
PEOPLE WHO WERE, I THINK, HOPEFUL THAT NORTH
KOREA MIGHT BE CHANGING. BUT, IN DEALING WITH A
DANGEROUS ADVERSARY, IT IS NOT WISE TO PAINT
THEM INTO A CORNER COMPLETELY. WE'VE GOT TO
LEAVE THE NORTH KOREAN REGIME A WAY OUT OF
CONFRONTATION WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD. AND
REASONABLE HUMANITARIAN CONCERN FOR THEIR
PEOPLE, ADEQUATELY MONITORED, SEEMS TO ME TO BE
A SENSIBLE THING FOR THE UNITED STATES TO
CONTINUE TO DO EVEN WHEN WE HAVE VERY
FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS WITH OTHER ASPECTS OF THEIR
BEHAVIOR.
HOST: AMBASSADOR LILLEY, YOU MENTIONED ONE OF THE REAL
SORE POINTS WITH NORTH KOREA. SUPPOSEDLY, THERE
ARE TALKS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND NORTH
KOREA ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE ON THIS ISSUE, AND
THAT IS THEIR PROLIFERATION OF MISSILES TO
PLACES LIKE PAKISTAN, IRAN AND SYRIA. HOW
SERIOUS A THREAT IS NORTH KOREA IN THIS
PROLIFERATION PROBLEM, AND IS ANYTHING EFFECTIVE
BEING DONE ABOUT IT?
LILLEY: OF COURSE, WHAT THEY'VE SAID -- AND THEY'VE
GOTTEN INTO THIS VERY BAD HABIT OF ONE MILLION
TONS OF FOOD FOR FOUR PARTY TALKS, THREE HUNDRED
THOUSAND TONS FOR ACCESS TO OUR SUPPOSED NUCLEAR
FACILITIES -- NOW THEY'RE SAYING FIVE HUNDRED
MILLION DOLLARS TO BUY US OFF NOT TO EXPORT
MISSILES TO COUNTRIES. THE CLEAREST CASE WE
HAVE OF THEIR INVOLVEMENT IS IN THE GHAURI
MISSILE IN PAKISTAN, WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
NO DONG MISSILE. AND WE'VE BEEN TRYING TO STOP
THAT FOR YEARS. AND WE STOPPED IT FOR A WHILE
-- ACTUALLY WHEN I WAS AT DEFENSE. RECENTLY,
THEY'VE GONE AHEAD AND DONE IT. WE HAVE STRONG
EVIDENCE THAT THEY'VE SHIPPED INTO SYRIA, IRAN,
POSSIBLY LIBYA.
HOST: THIS IS REALLY THEIR ONLY EXPORTABLE COMMODITY
IN NORTH KOREA.
LILLEY: SCUDS, NO DONG MISSILES, THIS IS WHAT THEY
EXPORT. I THINK THE OUT THAT I WOULD SUGGEST,
THAT DAVID MENTIONED, IS THE BEST OUT FOR THEM,
NORTH-SOUTH DIALOGUE WITH THEIR BROTHERS IN THE
SOUTH. KIM DAE JUNG HAS OFFERED A SENSIBLE
PROGRAM, REACHING OUT TO THEM. AND THE ONE GOOD
NEWS IS, THIS MAN YON HYONG MUK IS NOW ON THE
DEFENSE COMMISSION. AND HE WAS THE PREMIER AT
THE TIME OF THE NORTH-SOUTH TALKS IN 1991. NOW,
IF IN FACT, KIM JONG IL PUTS A NAVY MAN AT THE
HEAD OF THE DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT, IF, IN FACT,
THIS NEW PREMIER IS SOMEBODY THAT'S SOMEWHAT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE FLEXIBLE POSITION, I
THINK WE HAVE TO WATCH THAT VERY CLOSELY. I
DON'T THINK WE SHOULD READ ANY GREAT SIGNALS
INTO IT, BUT, CERTAIN MOVES HAVE BEEN MADE. THE
BAD NEWS IS, OF COURSE, THE MILITARY'S IN A MUCH
STRONGER POSITION AND THE MILITARY HAVE
TRADITIONALLY BEEN THE HARD-CORE BOYS THAT HAVE
BLOCKED ISSUES. BUT, THERE ARE LITTLE GLIMMERS
OF POSSIBLE HOPE IN THERE.
HOST: WHAT ABOUT THE SOUTH KOREAN REACTION, MR. BROWN,
TO RECENT EVENTS?
BROWN: THE GOVERNMENT HAS, I THINK, VERY MUCH TO THEIR
CREDIT, DECIDED THAT THEY WILL MAINTAIN THIS
POLICY THAT THEY CALL THE SUNSHINE POLICY, WHICH
ALLOWS FOR PRIVATE EXCHANGES AND BUSINESS
DEALINGS WITH THE NORTH KOREANS TO EXPAND EVEN
WHEN GOVERNMENT DIALOGUE, NORTH AND SOUTH, IS
FROZEN. THE UNFORTUNATE THING IS THAT PUBLIC
SUPPORT FOR THAT KIND OF POLICY IS ERODING IN
SOUTH KOREA PRECISELY BECAUSE OF THE KIND OF
UNREASONABLE ACTIONS WHICH THE NORTH IS TAKING.
AND THAT'S AN EXAMPLE OF HOW THE NORTH KOREANS
DON'T FULLY UNDERSTAND THE IMPLICATIONS AND
REACTIONS THAT THEIR OWN ACTIONS ARE TAKING.
AND YOU HAVE A MILITARY THERE WHOSE ONLY
CONTACTS WITH THE OUTSIDE WORLD ARE WITH ROGUE
REGIMES IN OTHER PLACES THAT THEY'RE COOPERATING
WITH AND IS OTHERWISE QUITE ISOLATED FROM
INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCES. THIS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS MIXTURE.
LILLEY: I WOULD AGREE THERE. I THINK THE SOUTH KOREANS
HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY MODERATE IN THIS ONE. AND
THEY'RE GOING AHEAD WITH THESE TOURIST GROUPS UP
TO KUM GANG SAN MOUNTAIN. THEY HAD THE FIVE
HUNDRED CATTLE THAT THE HEAD OF HYUNDAI PUT
ACROSS. THEY ARE REALLY OPENING UP. AND IT'S A
REAL OPPORTUNITY, BECAUSE THE BASIS OF ANY REAL
PEACE ON THAT PENINSULA, I THINK, IS IN
NORTH-SOUTH ACCORDS. AND THEY REACHED THESE
ACCORDS IN '91-'92, COMPREHENSIVE ACCORDS.
HOST: WHICH THE NORTH DID NOT THEN OBSERVE?
LILLEY: IT DID NOT OBSERVE, BUT, STILL, BY '94, YOU
WERE MOVING TOWARDS PREMIER TALKS. AND YOU WERE
EVEN MOVING TOWARDS A SUMMIT BETWEEN KIM IL SUNG
AND KIM YOUNG SAM. THEN KIM IL SUNG DIED. AND
THEN THERE WAS A LOT OF MISUNDERSTANDING AT THE
TIME OF HIS DEATH. AND EMOTIONS WERE HIGH AND
ACCUSATIONS WERE MADE. IT BROKE DOWN. BUT I
THINK, AGAIN, THAT IS THE KEY, NORTH-SOUTH.
HOST: FOUR PARTY TALKS ARE SCHEDULED TO RESUME, ARE
THEY NOT?
LILLEY: OCTOBER FIRST IN GENEVA, RIGHT.
HOST: AND WHAT DO YOU THINK MIGHT BE HOPED FROM THEM.
BROWN: VERY LITTLE IN MY MIND. I THINK THE NORTH
KOREANS ARE NOT, AT THIS POINT, SERIOUS ABOUT
REDUCING TENSIONS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA, AND
THAT'S WHAT THESE TALKS ARE ABOUT.
HOST: AMBASSADOR, IT'S CLEARLY BEEN AN OBJECTIVE OF
NORTH KOREA FROM THE BEGINNING TO EXCLUDE SOUTH
KOREA FROM TALKS AND HAVE A ONE-ON-ONE
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES. DO YOU
THINK ANY OF THEIR RECENT BEHAVIOR CAN BE
EXPLAINED IN TERMS OF MOVING TOWARD THAT
OBJECTIVE AND IF SO, IS IT SUCCEEDING?
LILLEY: IT CERTAINLY SUCCEEDED IN 1993. THEY HAD MADE
IT VERY CLEAR, EVEN WHEN I WAS TALKING WITH THEM
IN JANUARY 1992, THAT THEIR OBJECTIVE WAS TO GET
INTO DIRECT TALKS WITH THE UNITED STATES. AND
WE MADE IT CONDITIONAL ON TWO THINGS --
CHALLENGE INSPECTIONS AND A CONSTRUCTIVE
NORTH-SOUTH DIALOGUE. THEY WENT BACK ON BOTH OF
THOSE. AND THEN, IT STARTED AGAIN WITH THE WAR
SCARE IN '93, WHICH THEN PUT US INTO THESE
NEGOTIATIONS ON THE LIGHT WATER REACTORS THAT
BOB GALUCCI HEADED. AND THEY GOT THAT. THAT'S
WHAT THEY WANTED. THEY USED THE WAR SCARE TO
MOVE US INTO DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS. AND I THINK
AGAIN, THEY WOULD LIKE TO GET MILITARY TO
MILITARY TALKS, TALKS ON A PEACE TREATY, LIAISON
OFFICES ESTABLISHED, SANCTIONS LIFTED, ALL OF
THOSE THINGS THEY WANT TO GET. AND THEY THINK
THAT WE ARE A MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TARGET THAN THE
SOUTH.
BROWN: AND I THINK THERE'S A DANGER RIGHT NOW, A DANGER
THAT THE SOUTH KOREANS CLEARLY PERCEIVE, THAT
THE MISSILE TEST WAS DESIGNED TO ONCE AGAIN GET
THEM IN SERIOUS NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE UNITED
STATES, WHICH NEITHER THE SOUTH KOREANS OR THE
JAPANESE, WHO ARE DIRECTLY THREATENED BY THIS,
NOR THE CHINESE, ARE INVOLVED IN. SO THE WHOLE
THING IS FOCUSED ON THE U.S. I'M NOT SURE THAT
THIS WAS A MAJOR FACTOR IN WHAT THE NORTH
KOREANS WERE DOING, BUT IT IS VERY DEFINITELY
PART OF WHAT'S TAKING PLACE NOW. AND I THINK
IT'S VERY MUCH INCUMBENT UPON THE ADMINISTRATION
TO BRING THE SOUTH KOREANS, THE JAPANESE AND, I
WOULD ALSO ARGUE, THE CHINESE VERY MUCH INTO ALL
OF OUR GAME PLANNING OF HOW WE'RE GOING TO GET
ACCESS TO THIS NUCLEAR FACILITY.
HOST: WELL, OF COURSE, THE JAPANESE WENT ON MILITARY
ALERT AFTER THE FIRING OF THE FIRST MISSILE AND
EXPECTED THE FIRING OF A SECOND FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME. BUT THE EFFICACY OF ANY MILITARY ALERT
WITHOUT A MISSILE DEFENSE AS YOU MENTIONED,
AMBASSADOR LILLEY, IS QUESTIONABLE AT BEST.
LILLEY: YES, WHAT THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE STIMULATED NOW
IS THE JAPANESE RECONSIDERATION OF A UNILATERAL
RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITE CAPABILITY. AND
GETTING THE JAPANESE INTO SPACE IN MILITARY WAYS
IS SOMETHING NOBODY REALLY WANTS. AND I THINK
THAT THAT'S ONE THING. THE SECOND THING THAT IS
AN ANOMALY HERE IS THAT WE, IN 1996, HAVE AN
AGREEMENT WITH SOUTH KOREA TO LIMIT THEIR
MISSILES TO A HUNDRED AND EIGHTY KILOMETERS.
AND THEREFORE EVERYBODY IS UTTERLY DEPENDENT
UPON THE UNITED STATES. NORTH KOREA FIRES A
MISSILE THAT PROBABLY GOES FOUR THOUSAND
KILOMETERS. IT MAKES THE SOUTH KOREANS LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY ARE SECOND COUSINS IN THIS DEAL.
AND THE WHOLE THING IS DESIGNED TO HUMILIATE THE
SOUTH. BECAUSE IF YOU SAW THE TRUMPETING THAT
NORTH KOREA -- THE VICTORY OF THE SOCIALIST
SYSTEM, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.
HOST: SO THIS IS GOING TO HAVE SOME LONG RANGE IMPACT?
BROWN: YES, AND IF WE'RE GOING TO DEAL WITH IT
EFFECTIVELY, WE CAN'T DEAL WITH IT JUST AS THE
UNITED STATES. WE DIDN'T DEAL WITH THE NUCLEAR
PROBLEM ALONE. WE HAD TO USE JAPANESE, CHINESE,
SECURITY COUNCIL, I-A-E-A [INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC
ENERGY AGENCY]. WE HAD A GRAND STRATEGY FOR
DEALING WITH IT. AND I THINK WE'RE GOING TO
NEED AS A COUNTRY TO DO THE SAME KIND OF THING
THIS TIME IN CONFRONTING THE NUCLEAR FACILITY
AND THE TEST.
HOST: I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS
WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- JAMES
LILLEY FROM THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE;
AND DAVID BROWN FROM THE ASIA PACIFIC POLICY
CENTER -- FOR JOINING ME TO DISCUSS THE PROBLEMS
OF DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA. THIS IS ROBERT
REILLY FOR ON THE LINE.
18-Sep-98 2:20 PM EDT (1820 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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