DATE=9/4/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41304
TITLE=KOREA MISSILE / NUKE ACCORD
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: NORTH KOREA'S MISSILE TEST OVER JAPANESE TERRITORY MAY
HAVE PUT IN JEOPARDY THE 1994 ACCORD THAT HALTED PYONGYANG'S
NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM. AMERICAN ANALYSTS SAY THERE ARE NOW
LIMITED POLICY OPTIONS FACING THE UNITED STATES, AS V-O-A'S
STEPHANIE MANN REPORTS.
TEXT: UNDER THE 1994 ACCORD BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND PYONGYANG,
NORTH KOREA AGREED TO STOP ITS SUSPECTED NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM
AND DISMANTLE ITS EXISTING NUCLEAR FACILITIES. IN EXCHANGE, THE
UNITED STATES AND OTHER MEMBERS OF AN INTERNATIONAL CONSORTIUM
ARE HELPING NORTH KOREA BUILD TWO LESS CONTROVERSIAL NUCLEAR
POWER PLANTS AND PROVIDE FUEL OIL UNTIL THE NEW PLANTS ARE
OPERATIONAL.
BEFORE THE MISSILE WAS FIRED LAST MONDAY, U-S POLICYMAKERS
ALREADY WERE CONCERNED ABOUT INTELLIGENCE REPORTS THAT NORTH
KOREA MAY BE BUILDING A NEW SECRET NUCLEAR WEAPONS COMPLEX.
ROBERT MANNING, THE DIRECTOR OF ASIAN STUDIES AT THE COUNCIL ON
FOREIGN RELATIONS AND A FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL, SAYS
THOSE REVELATIONS CAME AT A SENSITIVE TIME. HE NOTES THE U-S
ADMINISTRATION WAS TRYING TO GET CONGRESS TO APPROVE EXTRA
FUNDING FOR FOOD AID AND FOR THE PROMISED DELIVERIES OF FUEL OIL
TO NORTH KOREA.
THEN CAME THE MISSILE TEST, WHICH MR. MANNING SAYS IS NOT LIKELY
TO ENCOURAGE CONGRESS TO APPROVE ADDITIONAL FUNDS.
// MANNING ACT ONE //
THIS IS A COUNTRY WHO HAS BECOME OUR SECOND OR THIRD
LARGEST AID RECIPIENT IN ASIA. HERE WE ARE FEEDING THIS
FAILED STATE THAT IS STARVING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF
ITS OWN PEOPLE -- NOBODY KNOWS THE FIGURES. AND WHAT DO
THEY SPEND THEIR TIME DOING? POSSIBLY WEAPONIZING ON
ACCOUNT OF OUR PLUTONIUM AND CERTAINLY BUILDING NEW
MULTI-STAGE MISSILES. HOW DO YOU JUSTIFY THAT?
// END ACT //
MR. MANNING SAYS IF THE CONSTRUCTION SITES UNDER QUESTION CAN BE
INSPECTED AND IT TURNS OUT THEY ARE NOT NUCLEAR SITES, THE
NUCLEAR ACCORD CAN GET BACK ON TRACK. HOWEVER, IF EVIDENCE
PROVES NORTH KOREA IS RESUMING ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM, HE
SAYS THAT, COMBINED WITH THE NORTH'S MISSILE CAPABILITY, LEADS TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF WHAT HE CALLS A CHILLING SPECTER OF NUCLEAR
BLACKMAIL. // OPT // NORTH KOREA DISMISSES INTERNATIONAL CONCERN
ABOUT THE MISSILE FIRING, SAYING THE MISSILE WAS FIRED TO LAUNCH
A SATELLITE INTO ORBIT. // END OPT //
MR. MANNING SAYS THE NORTH MAY HAVE DECIDED TO LAUNCH THE MISSILE
BECAUSE THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE CONSORTIUM --
SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN -- HAVE RECENTLY FALLEN BEHIND ON FUEL OIL
SHIPMENTS AND CONSTRUCTION OF THE NEW POWER PLANTS.
// MANNING ACT TWO //
IN A WAY, THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE A POINT. AND THIS IS
THE WORST MISTAKE YOU CAN MAKE, IN MY VIEW, IN DEALING
WITH NORTH KOREA -- GIVING THEM AN EXCUSE.
// END ACT //
MOREOVER, MR. MANNNING SAYS, NORTH KOREA MAY HAVE FELT THE UNITED
STATES WAS NOT MOVING FAST ENOUGH WITH MEASURES TO HELP NORTH
KOREA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.
/// OPT /// KOREA SPECIALIST DAVID STEINBERG AGREES.
// STEINBERG ACT ONE //
I THINK THE NORTH KOREANS EXPECTED, WHEN WE REACHED
AGREEMENT, TO SEE THE (ECONOMIC) SANCTIONS DROPPED BY
THE U-S AND SEE SOME INVESTMENT COMING IN, TO SEE THE
OPENING OF AN EMBASSY IN PYONGYANG AND AN OFFICE IN
WASHINGTON, HERE, FOR THE NORTH KOREANS. AND NONE OF
THOSE HAVE HAPPENED. AND I THINK THEY ARE QUITE
FRUSTRATED.
// END ACT // /// END OPT ///
THE UNITED STATES AND NORTH KOREA HAVE BEEN MEETING IN NEW YORK
SINCE LAST MONTH. THE U-S SIDE WANTS THE NORTH TO HALT ITS
MISSILE EXPORTS AND ALLOW INSPECTION OF THE NEW CONSTRUCTION
SITES. NORTH KOREA WANTS THE UNITED STATES TO MAKE CASH PAYMENTS
IN EXCHANGE FOR AN END TO MISSILE EXPORTS.
ROBERT MANNING SAYS IF THE NEW CONSTRUCTION SITES ARE NOT PART OF
A NUCLEAR PROGRAM, THE 1994 ACCORD CAN BE RESUMED. BUT IF IT
TURNS OUT NORTH KOREA IS EMBARKED ON A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM,
HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES MAY HAVE TO CONCLUDE THAT NORTH KOREA'S
MILITARY HAS ITS OWN AGENDA AND IT MAY NOT BE WORTH NEGOTIATING
WITH PYONGYANG.
DAVID STEINBERG, DIRECTOR OF ASIAN STUDIES AT GEORGETOWN
UNIVERSITY, SAYS THE U-S POLICY OPTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE
LIMITED.
// STEINBERG ACT TWO //
ANYTHING THAT WE DO NOW IS SEEN AS A REWARD FOR WHAT
THEY HAVE BEEN ENGAGED IN, WHICH IS DEMONSTRATING TO THE
OUTSIDE WORLD ... THAT THEY HAVE NEW TECHNOLOGY AND THAT
AS A BARGAINING CHIP THE PRICE HAS GONE UP. IN OTHER
WORDS, THEY CAN SELL THE MISSILE TECHNOLOGY TO OTHER
COUNTRIES, AS THEY HAVE DONE IN THE PAST. AND IT MEANS
IT BECOMES MORE URGENT FOR THE UNITED STATES TO DEAL
WITH THEM.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR STEINBERG SAYS IF NORTH KOREA LAUNCHED ITS MISSILE TO
TRY TO PRESS THE UNITED STATES TO BE MORE FORTHCOMING IN
NEGOTIATIONS, IT HAS MISCALCULATED BADLY. HE SAYS NORTH KOREA
DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE U-S PROCESS AND THE ROLE THAT CONGRESS
PLAYS IN APPROVING INTERNATIONAL POLICY. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/GE
04-Sep-98 10:04 AM EDT (1404 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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