DATE=9/1/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41278
TITLE=NORTH KOREA MISSILE ANALYSIS CQ
BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE EFFECTS OF NORTH KOREA'S TEST OF A BALLISTIC MISSILE
OVER JAPAN CONTINUE TO REVERBERATE -- WITH WEAPONS EXPERTS
WARNING THE MOVE COULD POSE A NEW SECURITY RISK TO ASIA AND THE
WORLD. CORRESPONDENT NICK SIMEONE EXPLAINS.
TEXT: "EXTREMELY DANGEROUS" IS HOW A JAPANESE GOVERNMENT
SPOKESMAN DESCRIBED THE TEST OF THE TWO-STAGE MISSILE, KNOWN AS
THE TAEPODONG-ONE, A PORTION OF WHICH FLEW OVER JAPAN BEFORE
PLUNGING INTO THE SEA OFF THE COUNTRY'S EAST COAST. THE MISSILE
HAS A LONGER RANGE THAN PREVIOUS DEVICES TESTED BY THE NORTH, AND
COULD BE CAPABLE OF HITTING TARGETS AS FAR AWAY AS RUSSIA AND THE
PHILIPPINES.
PAUL BEAVER IS AN EAST ASIAN SPECIALIST AT LONDON'S "JANE'S
DEFENSE" WEEKLY.
// BEAVER ACT //
IF THIS MISSILE IS ACTUALLY READY NOW -- AND THE NORTH
KOREANS HAVE A HISTORY OF LAUNCHING THEIR WEAPONS WHEN
THEY ARE ABOUT 60 PERCENT CAPABLE -- WITHIN TWO OR THREE
YEARS IT WILL BE OPERATIONAL AND THAT DOES CAUSE A
PROBLEM BECAUSE IT CAN REACH FAR BEYOND JAPAN AND FAR
INTO CHINA. IT PROBABLY COULD REACH TO THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS AND OF COURSE IT PUTS ALL THE AMERICAN BASES IN
JAPAN FOR EXAMPLE, WITHIN RANGE.
// END ACT //
U-S OFFICIALS SAY THEY WERE AWARE THAT THE NORTH WAS PREPARING TO
TEST THE MISSILE, WHICH THEY SAY HAS A RANGE OF ABOUT
TWO-THOUSAND KILOMETERS. BUT WITH NO AMERICAN PRESENCE IN
PYONGYANG, HARD INTELLIGENCE ABOUT THE NORTH'S MILITARY
INTENTIONS IS DIFFICULT TO COME BY. ANALYSTS SAY INFORMATION
ABOUT THE SECRETIVE COMMUNIST COUNTRY IS OFTEN BASED ON LESS
RELIABLE INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY DEFECTORS.
RAISING THE STAKES IN THE MATTER IS NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR
POTENTIAL. GARY MILHOLLIN, DIRECTOR OF THE RESEARCH GROUP CALLED
THE WISCONSIN PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL, BELIEVES THE NORTH
ALREADY HAS ENOUGH PLUTONIUM TO MAKE A FEW NUCLEAR BOMBS AND HAS
NO INTENTION OF ADHERING TO A 1994 AGREEMENT INTENDED TO HALT ITS
NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT.
// MILHOLLIN ACT //
ONE THING THAT IS CLEAR IS THAT DESPITE THE FACT THAT
THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE AN AGREEMENT WITH US TO FREEZE
THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM, THEY HAVE NOT STOPPED THEIR
DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS. WE DISCOVERED NOT TOO LONG AGO
THAT NORTH KOREA SEEMS TO BE BUILDING A GIANT NUCLEAR
FACILITY UNDERGROUND INSIDE OF A MOUNTAIN. AND NOW THIS
NEW MISSILE THAT WILL CARRY NUCLEAR WARHEADS SHOWS THAT
THE NORTH KOREANS ARE STILL BUSY DESPITE THE FACT THAT
WE SEEM TO THINK WE HAVE FROZEN THEIR PROGRAM.
// END ACT //
EXPERTS ALSO AGREE THAT BY CONDUCTING THE TEST, NORTH KOREA MAY
BE TRYING TO SHOWCASE ADVANCES IN MISSILE TECHNOLOGY TO ATTRACT
NEW BUYERS, INCLUDING GOVERNMENTS WITH HOSTILE INTENTIONS. AGAIN,
PAUL BEAVER:
// SECOND BEAVER ACT //
THE REAL CONCERN THAT I HAVE IS THAT NORTH KOREA IS
GOING TO SELL SOME OF THESE WEAPONS TO UNDESIRABLE
COUNTRIES TO GET FOREIGN EXCHANGE TO FEED THE PEOPLE.
// END ACT //
U-S OFFICIALS HAVE SAID LITTLE ABOUT THE TEST BEYOND THEIR
INTENTION TO RAISE THEIR CONCERNS ABOUT WEAPONS PROLIFERATION
DURING ON-GOING TALKS WITH THE NORTH IN NEW YORK. IT'S THERE,
ACCORDING TO MR. BEAVER, THAT NORTH KOREA MAY HAVE INTENDED THE
MISSILE TEST TO HAVE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT.
// THIRD BEAVER ACT //
IF THEY'RE TESTING MISSILES AT THE TIME OF BILATERAL
TALKS, IT'S ALL PART OF THE NEGOTIATING PLOY.
// END ACT //
STILL, AS ONE U-S OFFICIAL PUT IT, IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN HARD TO
UNDERSTAND THE STRATEGY OF THE NORTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT IN MATTERS
LIKE THESE. (SIGNED)
NEB/NJS/PLM
01-Sep-98 5:18 PM EDT (2118 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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