DATE=6/2/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40577
TITLE=U-S POLICY TOWARD THE TWO KOREAS
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: ABOUT TO MAKE AN OFFICIAL VISIT TO WASHINGTON, SOUTH
KOREAN PRESIDENT KIM DAE JUNG HAS URGED LIFTING THE ECONOMIC
SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA AS PART OF HIS POLICY OF ENGAGEMENT WITH
THE LONG ISOLATED COMMUNIST REGIME. THE UNITED STATES HAS ADOPTED
A WAIT-AND-SEE ATTITUDE TOWARD THE STILL BELLIGERANT NORTH.
SPEAKING BEFORE "THE KOREA SOCIETY" IN WASHINGTON, U-S SENATOR
MAX BAUCUS, WHO HAS MADE THE KOREAS A SPECIAL CONCERN, EXPLAINED
U-S POLICY AS HE SEES IT. V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS.
TEXT: ONE THING CAN BE PREDICTED FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA, SAID
U-S SENATOR MAX BAUCUS. THERE WILL BE CRUCIAL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL YEARS. THE QUESTION IS WILL IT BE PEACEFUL OR
EXPLOSIVE? ADDRESSING THE KOREA SOCIETY IN WASHINGTON, HE SAID
HE IS NOT SURE. NORTH KOREA COULD GO IN ANY NUMBER OF
DIRECTIONS:
// BAUCUS ACT //
IF NORTH KOREA CAN NO LONGER FEED ITS PEOPLE OR RUN ITS
FACTORIES, IT WILL SOON BE UNABLE TO RUN AN ARMY. AS
THAT POINT APPROACHES, NORTHERN LEADERS COULD GAMBLE ON
WAR. THE NORTH KOREAN STATE COULD ALSO END IN A SUDDEN
EXPLOSION, CAUSING AN INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CRISIS. OR
NORTH KOREA COULD LOOK HARD AT ITSELF AND RECOGNIZE THAT
ITS SYSTEM DOES NOT WORK.
// END ACT //
IN THAT CASE, SAID SENATOR BAUCUS, IT COULD ADOPT THE REFORMS
CHINA BEGAN TO FOLLOW IN THE 1970'S. IT COULD SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE MILITARY SPENDING FROM THE PRESENT TWENTY-FIVE PERCENT OF
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (G-D-P). IT COULD WELCOME OUTSIDE
INVESTMENT, PARTICULARLY FROM THE NOW MORE ACCOMMODATING SOUTH.
THE TWO KOREAS COULD THEN COEXIST AND IN TIME REUNITE.
BUT SENATOR BAUCUS SAID HE HAS HIS DOUBTS ABOUT THIS OPTIMISTIC
SCENARIO. IT WOULD EXPOSE NORTH KOREA WITH ALL ITS SHORTCOMINGS
TO THE OUTSIDE WORLD. ITS LEADERS MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO FACE THE
HUMILIATION.
SO HE SAID THE UNITED STATES MUST MAINTAIN ITS COMMITMENT TO A
STRONG AND PROSPEROUS SOUTH KOREA, WHERE 37 THOUSAND U-S TROOPS
ARE STILL STATIONED. THAT MEANS CONTINUING FOUR MAJOR POLICIES:
// BAUCUS ACT //
FIRST, DETER A NORTH KOREAN ATTACK ON THE SOUTH. SECOND,
PREVENT NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM ENTERING THE PENINSULA.
THIRD, HELP ENSURE THAT SOUTH KOREA IS PROSPEROUS; THUS
POLITICALLY STRONG AND STABLE. AND FOURTH, PREVENT
DEVELOPMENTS IN KOREA FROM BRINGING US INTO A
CONFRONTATION WITH CHINA OR JAPAN OR RUSSIA - THOUGH
THAT IS HARDER TO IMAGINE - THAT NEITHER WE NOR THE
CHINESE WANT.
// END ACT //
SENATOR BAUCUS SAID A POSSIBLE CONFLICT WITH CHINA, THOUGH
REMOTE, IS WORRISOME. IT COULD HAPPEN IF NORTH KOREA SUDDDENLY
COLLAPSES, AND BOTH THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA INTERVENE TO
PREVENT A CIVIL WAR OR SIMPLY TO PROVIDE HUMANITARIAN RELIEF.
EVEN IF THE KOREAS SUCCESSFULLY REUNITE, SAID THE SENATOR, U-S
FORCES MIGHT REMAIN TO ASSURE STABILITY IN THE REGION. BUT THAT
OF COURSE, WOULD BE UP TO THE KOREANS.
PAUL CHAMBERLIN, VICE PRESIDENT OF INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY AND
TRADE ASSOCIATES IN WASHINGTON, AGREES A CONTINUED U-S MIITARY
PRESENCE WOULD BE A KEY ISSUE IN A REUNITED KOREA:
// CHAMBERLIN ACT //
WHAT WILL BE THE JUSTIFICATION THAT WILL PERSUADE
KOREANS TO WANT TO MAINTAIN A FOREIGN MILITARY PRESENCE
ON THEIR SOIL? HOW MUCH ARE THEY WILLING TO PAY TO
SUPPORT IT? AND WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, WHAT WOUILD BE
THE AMERICAN SUPPORT FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF FORCES ON
MAINLAND ASIA? FROM A FOREIGN POLICY STANDPOINT, ONE CAN
UNDERSTAND THE BENEFITS OF MAINTAINING A MILITARY
PRESENCE THERE IF ONLY TO SYMBOLIZE AMERICAN COMMITMENT
TO THE REGION.
// END ACT //
MR. CHAMBERLIN, WHO SERVED AS A U-S ARMY POLITICAL-MILITARY
ANALYST IN SOUTH KOREA, SAYS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE KIND OF KOREA
THAT EMERGES FROM COMBINING TWO SUCH RADICALLY DIFFERENT PARTS.
(SIGNED)
NEB/PT
02-Jun-98 7:24 PM EDT (2324 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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