DATE=4/9/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40020
TITLE=NORTH-SOUTH KOREA TALKS
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: SATURDAY'S SCHEDULED MEETING IN BEIJING BETWEEN NORTH AND
SOUTH KOREA MARKS THE TWO COUNTRIES' FIRST DIRECT
GOVERNMENT-TO-GOVERNMENT TALKS IN FOUR YEARS. AMERICAN OBSERVERS
CALL IT AN IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE SKEPTICAL THAT MAJOR
RESULTS WILL EMERGE, AS CORRESPONDENT STEPHANIE MANN REPORTS.
TEXT: IN 1991, NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA SIGNED AN AGREEMENT THAT
PAVED THE WAY FOR DIRECT DIALOGUE AIMED AT RECONCILIATION BETWEEN
THE TWO COUNTRIES WHICH ARE STILL TECHNICALLY AT WAR.
THEN, IN 1994, PREPARATIONS FOR A SUMMIT BETWEEN THE TWO
PRESIDENTS WERE ABRUPTLY HALTED BECAUSE OF THE DEATH OF NORTH
KOREAN LEADER KIM IL SUNG. THAT AND OTHER FACTORS, SUCH AS THE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS ISSUE AND MILITARY TENSIONS, CAUSED AN INDEFINITE
SUSPENSION OF DIRECT NORTH-SOUTH CONTACTS.
// OPT // ANY ENCOUNTERS THAT HAVE OCCURED EITHER INVOLVED
NON-GOVERNMENTAL GROUPS, SUCH AS THE RED CROSS, OR TOOK PLACE IN
A MULTILATERAL CONTEXT WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF OTHER COUNTRIES
ALSO PRESENT. // END OPT //
AMERICAN SPECIALISTS ON KOREA SAY IT IS A SIGNIFICANT AND
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT THE NORTH TOOK THE INITIATIVE TO
PROPOSE DIRECT TALKS, USING THE 1991 AGREEMENT AS A STARTING
POINT.
SCOTT SNYDER, A KOREA EXPERT AT THE U-S INSTITUTE OF PEACE, A
WASHINGTON-BASED RESEARCH ORGANIZATION, SAYS NORTH KOREA IS
TESTING THE GOVERNMENT OF NEW SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT KIM
DAE-JUNG.
// SNYDER ACT 1 //
I THINK THAT THIS MEETING IS GOING TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO FIND OUT WHETHER SOUTH KOREA'S POLICIES HAVE CHANGED
SUFFICIENTLY THAT THEY FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING FORWARD IN
A MORE EXTENDED DIALOGUE.
// END ACT //
MR. SNYDER SAYS THE AGENDA OF THE MEETING IN BEIJING IS EXPECTED
TO FOCUS ON WAYS THAT SOUTH KOREA CAN HELP THE NORTH WITH ITS
AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS AND ITS INABILITY TO FEED ITS PEOPLE. HE
DESCRIBES WHAT EACH SIDE IS LIKELY TO GET FROM THE MEETING.
// SNYDER ACT 2 //
I THINK WHAT THE NORTH KOREANS ARE REALLY LOOKING FOR IS
MORE RESOURCES, PARTICULARLY IN THE AGRICULTURAL AREA,
IN THE AREA OF FERTILIZER, OTHER ECONOMIC INPUTS THAT
COULD HELP TO MEET SOME OF THEIR OWN NEEDS IN THE AREA
OF FOOD. FOR THE SOUTH, I THINK THAT THE ESTABLISHMENT
OF A RECORD OF DIALOGUE WITH NORTH KOREA IS SOMETHING
THAT CLEARLY KIM DAE-JUNG HAS LONG HOPED FOR AND HOPED
TO BE INVOLVED WITH.
// END ACT //
// OPT // IN ADDITION, MR. SNYDER SAYS SOUTH KOREA IS ANXIOUS TO
RAISE THE ISSUE OF DIVIDED FAMILIES -- PEOPLE SEPARATED ON
DIFFERENT SIDES OF THE DEMILITARIZED ZONE AFTER THE KOREAN WAR
ENDED IN 1953. HE SAYS THE WAY THE TWO SIDES HANDLE THAT ISSUE
MAY HELP DETERMINE THE POSSIBILITY FOR FURTHER PROGRESS OR
ADDITIONAL MEETINGS. // END OPT //
MR. SNYDER CAUTIONS THAT ANY PROGRESS IN THE KOREAN DIALOGUE WILL
BE SLOW AND MAY BE HINDERED BY FALSE STARTS. HE DOES NOT EXPECT
ANY HISTORIC BREAKTHROUGH BUT SAYS PROGRESS WILL BE MADE IF THERE
IS CONSISTENT MOVEMENT FORWARD FROM YEAR TO YEAR.
ANOTHER KOREA WATCHER, DOUGLAS PAAL WHO WAS AN ADVISOR ON ASIAN
ISSUES TO PRESIDENTS REAGAN AND BUSH, SAYS THE FACT THAT NORTH
AND SOUTH KOREA WILL BE TALKING DIRECTLY TO EACH OTHER IS GOOD
NEWS. HOWEVER, MR. PAAL, NOW PRESIDENT OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC
POLICY CENTER, IS EVEN MORE CAUTIOUS THAN SCOTT SNYDER IN
ASSESSING THE DEVELOPMENT.
MR. PAAL SAYS HE DOES NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RESULTS BECAUSE HE
SAYS THE NORTH NEEDS TO MAINTAIN THE SOUTH AS AN ENEMY. HE SAYS
PEOPLE ARE SUFFERING IN THE NORTH FROM EXTREME FOOD SHORTAGES,
AND THE GOVERNMENT IN PYONGYANG NEEDS TO POINT TO OUTSIDE
ELEMENTS AS THE CAUSE.
// PAAL ACT //
SO THEY'RE REALLY PLAYING A TWO-TRACK POLICY: ON THE
ONE HAND, MAINTAINING A HIGH LEVEL MILITARY READINESS,
BEING NON-COOPERATIVE IN THE FOUR-PARTY TALKS WHICH MET
JUST LAST MONTH, WHERE THE NORTH AND SOUTH KOREAN
DELEGATES REALLY WERE WIDELY APART AND THE NORTH REALLY
TREATED THE SOUTH WITH DISDAIN. BUT WHEN IT INVOLVES
SOMETHING WHERE THEY THINK THEY CAN GET A DIRECT GAIN
FROM THE SOUTH, LIKE IN THIS INSTANCE AGRICULTURAL
INPUTS, FERTILIZER, THEY'RE WILLING TO MAKE A LITTLE BIT
OF A COMPROMISE, GO TO BEIJING AND MEET WITH THEM AND
THEN TAKE THE GOODS AND RUN.
// END ACT //
MR. PAAL DOES NOT SEE THE NEW DIRECT DIALOGUE BETWEEN PYONGYANG
AND SEOUL AS THE BEGINNING OF A PROCESS OF RECONCILIATION -- AT
LEAST NOT YET. HE SAYS IT IS PART OF THE ONGOING TENSIONS
BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES, MARKED BY OCCASIONAL THAWS THAT ALLOW THE
NORTH TO GET SHORT TERM GAINS. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/PLM
09-Apr-98 3:40 PM EDT (1940 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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