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North Korea said using missiles to 'affect election'

Japan Times 18 October 1996 North Korea may be trying to affect the upcoming general election in Japan by raising the fear of missile tests, an expert on Korean affairs said Oct. 18.

"It is possible that North Korea may test its Rodong-1 long-range missile today (Oct. 18) or tomorrow in order to send a message to Japan before Oct. 20. It's trying to make some kind of impact on Japan," said Hajime Izumi, a professor of political science at Shizuoka University, in a speech at a forum of the Asia-Pacific Association of Japan. The forum was held at the Japan Times Hall in Tokyo's Minato Ward. "And the possible message is, they want to talk with the new Japanese Cabinet," he said.

The Defense Agency expressed concerns earlier this week over U.S. reconnaissance satellite images that confirmed a North Korean launch platform for the medium-range Rodong-1 has moved out of its assembly plant in the eastern part of the country. But such an act by North Korea can only work negatively, the professor suspects. Since the missile has a range extending up to 1,000 km, which puts most of Japan in its reach, this apparent threat may make Japan cut off any communications between the two nations.

Izumi said another possible explanation for North Korea's enigmatic act may be that it is attempting to demonstrate the missile to Libyan and Syrian military delegations still in the country. "Of course, North Korea may very well be being driven by both motives," he said.

But the chances the test will succeed are not high. Pointing out the three-year gap since the missile was last tested in 1993, the professor indicated that Rodong-1 is not good enough to hit a target with precision. "The two Koreas have been in a state of semiwar since 1953. With the recent submarine incident literally freezing the situation, it's unlikely the two sides will reach institutional peace in the near future," he said.

But at the same time, he doesn't see a hair-trigger situation on the horizon. "The two sides have successfully been able to avoid any serious confrontation for the past 43 years, after all," he said. The professor also praised the reaffirmation of the Japanese-U.S. security treaty in April, as it could play a supplemental role in deterring North Korea from engaging in radical action.