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Prospects for DPRK-U.S. Missile Negotiations

By Kim Min-sok - Seoul CHUNGANG ILBO - 1 Mar 96

Like North Korea's nuclear issue, North Korea's development and exports of missiles have been international troublemakers. When there were signs that North Korea's nuclear issue was to be resolved, the United States proposed holding negotiations to prevent North Korea from developing and exporting missiles as a follow-up measure. Such a proposal was to be expected. Well aware of U.S. intentions, North Korea has continued to avoid negotiations, so the United States has put forth the missile issue as an important precondition to normalizing North Korea-U.S. relations. North Korea decided to hold missile negotiations with the United States in Geneva from 24 April because: it is difficult to avoid pressure from the United States any longer; having direct military contact with the United States is of significance; and considerable interests may be obtained through the negotiations just as was the case during the nuclear negotiations.

Also, a long period of time has elapsed since the settlement of the light-water reactor issue because the ROK Government has been strongly opposed to direct contacts between North Korea and the United States. It was learned that the ROK Government consented to the negotiations under the condition that they be held after the April general elections and that, for the time being, the agenda be limited to the missile issue.

North Korea brought in Scud missiles from China in 1975 and started to analyze it. After concluding "an agreement to develop missiles" with Egypt in 1981, it began full-scale development of missiles. From 1984, North Korea developed a Scud missile with a shooting range of 280km and deployed it near Pyongyang. Since then, it has acquired the capability of producing 100 Scud missiles annually. Missiles have become an important item for weapons exports for North Korea with the export of 100 Scud missiles to Iran in 1987. Also, North Korea has recently been developing the Taepodong missile which is estimated to have a shooting range of 3,000-5,000km. Northeast Asia and Japan are within this shooting range, thus causing neighboring countries to be apprehensive.

This being the case, with the United States classifying missiles as well as nuclear weapons and chemical weapons as large-scale murderous weapons, it is up to the United States to try to make North Korea join the Missile Technology Control Regime [MTCR]. The MTCR is an international export control organization which prohibits the export of missiles that have a shooting range of over 300km and related parts and technology. If North Korea joins the MTCR, the export of all of its missiles will be wholly prohibited.

However, North Korea is unlikely to joing the MTCR submissively because it has invested an enormous amount of effort and money and bacause it regards missiles exports as an important means for obtaining foreign currency. The U.S. side hopes this time to make North Korea join the MTCR and North Korea's true intention is to obtain a considerable amount of money from this. Therefore, trials and tribulations will be inevitable in the process of negotiations, but since North Korea's pressing goal is to improve DPRK-U.S. relations, the general view is that this matter will eventually be resolved in some form. While the resolution of North Korea's missile issue, which has also been a headache for us, is desirable, related authorities are concerned that North Korea may gain, in addition to the original promise, an opportunity for full-scale direct contact between North Korea and the United States.

The Foreign Ministry has revealed that the ROK and the United States regard North Korea's missile issue as an important matter which must be resolved between North Korea and the United States, and have held close consultations regarding this matter, but concrete plans for North Korea- U.S. talks, and the venue and date for the talks, have yet to be reached.

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