Tracking Number: 279245
Title: "Riscassi: the North Korean Threat Has Risen Dramatically." According to General Robert Riscassi, Commander in Chief of US forces in South Korea, the North Korean nuclear
war threat has increased greatly since it pulled out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. (930421)
Author: MORSE, JANE A (USIA STAFF WRITER)
Date: 19930421
Text:
*EPF304
04/21/93 *
RISCASSI: THE NORTH KOREAN THREAT HAS RISEN DRAMATICALLY (Article on Senate Armed Services 4/21 hearing) (820) By Jane A. Morse USIA Staff Writer Washington -- If "ten" means war and "one" means peace, then the threat posed to South Korea by the North has risen to seven and a half in the last 60 days, according to General Robert W. Riscassi, commander in chief of U.S. forces in the Republic of Korea (ROK).
At an April 21 hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Riscassi was asked to measure the level of threat facing the ROK. Riscassi said that having an armistice rather than a peace treaty automatically puts the threat level at "five" for the peninsula, but North Korea's recent announcement to withdraw from the Non-proliferation Treaty and its mobilization of its forces to a "semi-state of war," have forced tensions even higher.
Riscassi said he was a lot less optimistic about the situation on the peninsula than he was last year when he appeared before the Committee, when it appeared that North Korea might be willing to accede to inspections of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
With the loss of aid from its old communist friends China and the former Soviet Union, North Korea is earning hard currency from arms trade with unstable regions, most notably the Middle East, Riscassi explained. Nonetheless, the economic situation within the North is desperate, he said. "North Korea could simply implode or explode," he said. "Its current path of confrontation, economic decline, and increased isolation is setting preconditions that could catalyze either of these results."
"We must disabuse ourselves of the confidence we gained during the Cold War that North Korea was manageable, even as we shake off the optimism of the past three years," he said in prepared testimony. "North Korea is no longer as manageable," he said, because its formerly important aid-providing allies are no longer in a position to restrain North Korean behavior.
"The post Cold War world is more dynamic, complex, and ambiguous," according to General Carl W. Stiner, commander in Chief of the U.S. Special Operations Command. Among the chief destabilizing elements in the world today, he said, are: the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; ethnic warfare; the rise of religious fundamentalism; disease, poverty and populations explosion; terrorism, narcotics trafficking; the conversion from demand to market economies; and, the "revolution of rising expectations."
"A world undergoing unprecedented political, economic and military change will challenge the international order as it has seldom been challenged before," Stiner said. Yet the U.S. remains unmatched in its ability to provide leadership and exert influence globally, he said. "As a nation with strong democratic values, and which seeks no territory or empire, the U.S. serves as a role model for many emerging states. We cannot solve all the world's problems, however, we remain the country to whom others turn in distress and are viewed as a force for stability in a troubled world by many others."
U.S. interests in the Pacific are growing along with its burgeoning economic ties, according to Admiral Charles R. Larson, commander in chief of the U.S. Pacific Command. There are no "altruistic reasons" on the part of the U.S. commitment to providing a stable climate for investment and trade in the Asia/Pacific region, Larson said in answer to questions. Some 2.5 million American jobs and 320 billion dollars in direct trade depend on a peaceful Asia/Pacific, he said.
"As I look to the future, I see that Pacific economic prosperity, regional stability, and political progress, all vital to U.S. national interests, depend on our cooperation and engagement with others -- and all will continue to be founded on the reality of U.S. military power," he said in prepared testimony. "We absolutely must remain actively engaged in this region," he said.
The United States is compensating for the loss of facilities in the Philippines with a new policy of seeking access to "places rather than bases," Larson said in response to questions.
Larson said that when the Philippine Senate did not approve renewal of a treaty allowing U.S. forces to stay in the Philippines, "the other nations of Asia, the ASEAN countries and other countries, really sat up and took notice. And every single one of those countries, to a country, asked for an intensification of our bilateral relationships: more contact, better exercises, access, increased access, port visits, refueling rights.... And the net result with a smaller force has been an ability to redistribute our presence around many more places rather than having a large base. So we took the critical functions that were at Subic and we relocated those functions where we already had infrastructure: basically to Japan, to Guam, and a very modest presence of a logistics coordinator in Singapore."
NNNN
File Identification: 04/21/93, EPF309
Product Name: Wireless File
Product Code: WF
Keywords: KOREA (NORTH)-KOREA (SOUTH) RELATIONS; KOREA (NORTH)/Defense &
Military; INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY; INSPECTIONS; ARMS CONTROL VERIFICATION; NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY (NPT); NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION; RISCASSI, ROBERT;
Thematic Codes: 1AC; 1EA; 1UN
Target Areas: EA
PDQ Text Link: 279245
USIA Notes: *93042104.EPF
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