TYPE= CLOSE-UP
NUMBER= 4-09577
TITLE= CYPRUS TENSIONS
BYLINE= ANDRE DE NESNERA
TELEPHONE= 619-2009 (EDITOR)
DATELINE= LONDON
EDITOR= NANCY SMART
CONTENT=
// VOICER AND ACTUALITIES AVAILABLE IN AUDIO SERVICES //
INTRO: EARLIER THIS MONTH, THE CYPRESS GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED PLANS TO BUY A RUSSIAN ANTI-AIRCRAFT MISSILE SYSTEM -- A DECISION WHICH HAS ANGERED THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT AND HEIGHTENED TENSIONS IN THE REGION. IN THIS REPORT FROM LONDON, V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE NESNERA LOOKS AT THE MILITARY AND POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS OF THE DEAL.
TEXT: WESTERN DEFENSE EXPERTS AND POLITICIANS DESCRIBE THE DIVIDED ISLAND OF CYPRUS AS THE WORLD'S MOST DENSELY MILITARIZED ZONE. ON A RECENT TRIP TO THE ISLAND, BRITISH DEFENSE SECRETARY MALCOLM RIFKIND SAID THE AMOUNT OF MILITARY HARDWARE AND MILITARY PERSONNEL IS DANGEROUSLY HIGH.
IN THE NORTHERN TURKISH SIDE, ABOUT 35-THOUSAND TROOPS ARE BACKED BY TANKS, HEAVY ARTILLERY AND ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS. THE GREEK CYPRIOT SIDE HAS ABOUT 10-THOUSAND MEN AS WELL AS HEAVY ARTILLERY, ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS AND TANKS. BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT-HELD SOUTHERN CYPRUS AND THE TURKISH-OCCUPIED NORTH IS A BUFFER ZONE KNOWN AS THE "GREEN LINE," PATROLLED BY ABOUT 12-HUNDRED UNITED NATIONS PEACEKEEPERS.
EARLIER THIS MONTH, THE GREEK CYPRIOTS ANNOUNCED PLANS TO BUY A RUSSIAN ANTI-AIRCRAFT MISSILE SYSTEM KNOWN AS "S-300," WHICH HAS A RANGE OF ABOUT 100 KILOMETERS. (OPT) BRITISH DEFENSE EXPERTS SAY THE SYSTEM IS SIMILAR -- THOUGH NOT AS SOPHISTICATED -- AS THE AMERICAN "PATRIOT MISSILE" USED IN THE GULF WAR SIX YEARS AGO. THE "S-300" WAS INITIALLY DEVELOPED BY MOSCOW AS A MOBILE BATTLEFIELD SYSTEM CAPABLE OF DESTROYING AMERICAN CRUISE MISSILES AND TACTICAL AIRCRAFT BEFORE THEY REACH THE BATTLEZONE. (END OPT)
THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT REACTED SWIFTLY AND ANGRILY TO THE GREEK CYPRIOTS DECISION TO BUY THE RUSSIAN SYSTEM. ANKARA SAID THE "S-300" IS AN OFFENSIVE WEAPON AND SAID ITS ARMED FORCES WOULD ATTACK THE GREEK CYPRIOTS IF THEY DEPLOY THE MISSILES.
BUT PAUL BEAVER - SENIOR DEFENSE ANALYST WITH THE BRITISH PUBLICATION "JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY" - SAYS THE "S-300" IS A PURELY DEFENSIVE SYSTEM.
TAPE: CUT # 1 - BEAVER
"THE TURKS ARE CONCERNED BECAUSE THERE ARE TWO AIRFIELDS CURRENTLY BEING CONSTRUCTED IN SOUTHWEST CYPRUS WHERE THE GREEKS WOULD BE ABLE TO BASE TACTICAL STRIKE AIRCRAFT AND AIR DEFENSE AIRCRAFT. IT LOOKS TO ME AS IF THE "S-300'S" ARE GOING TO BE USED AS AN UMBRELLA ACROSS THE TOP OF THAT AREA AND I THINK THIS IS WHAT THE TURKS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT -- THAT GREEK AIRCRAFT WILL BE ABLE TO OPERATE THERE. "S-300" IS CAPABLE OF DEFEATING ANY TURKISH AIRCRAFT WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE INVENTORY AND SO THEY FEEL THE ANTE HAS BEEN UPPED NOT BECAUSE OF THE SYSTEM, BUT BECAUSE OF WHAT IT MEANS."
TEXT: MR. BEAVER -- AS WELL AS OTHER DEFENSE ANALYSTS -- BELIEVES THE GREEK CYPRIOTS DECISION TO BUY THE RUSSIAN MISSILE SYSTEM SHIFTS THE BALANCE OF POWER IN A VERY VOLATILE REGION.
TAPE: CUT # 2 - BEAVER
"NEITHER THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS IN THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND NOR THE GREEKS HAVE HAD TACTICAL STRIKE AIRCRAFT. (OPT) THEY BOTH HAVE TANKS AND INFANTRY. THEY BOTH HAVE GOT ARTILLERY PIECES. THE CYPRIOT GOVERNMENT HAS GOT FRENCH "GAZELLE" HELICOPTERS WITH ANTI-TANK MISSILES AND THAT IS BASICALLY KEEPING IT TO THE BATTLEFIELD -- IT IS A LOWER LEVEL. (END OPT) BY PUTTING IN THIS AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM AND ALLOWING THE AIRFIELDS TO BE BUILT, THAT HAS UPPED THE ANTE AND I THINK THIS WILL MEAN THE TURKISH SIDE WILL WANT TO REDRESS THAT IN SOME WAY -- IT WILL FEEL -- FOR ITS OWN PEACE OF MIND AND OF COURSE ALSO FOR ITS OWN INTERNATIONAL POSTURING."
TEXT: BRITISH DEFENSE EXPERTS SAY THE RUSSIAN ANTI-AIRCRAFT SYSTEM CAN BE DEPLOYED -- AT THE EARLIEST -- 16 MONTHS FROM NOW. THEY SAY TALKS ARE STILL GOING ON WITH MOSCOW ABOUT THE DEAL, WHICH ALSO INVOLVES PROVIDING THE GREEK CYPRIOTS WITH ATTACK HELICOPTERS.
(OPT)) COLONEL TERENCE TAYLOR FROM LONDON'S INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES, IS NOT SURPRISED BY THE DEAL WITH RUSSIA. HE SAYS OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS, THE GREEK CYPRIOTS HAVE BEEN UPGRADING THEIR MILITARY EQUIPMENT.
TAPE: CUT # 3 - TAYLOR
"THEY HAVE UPGRADED THEIR OLD AMX-30 FRENCH TANKS AND REPLACED THEM WITH RUSSIAN T-80 TANKS WHICH ARE STILL BEING DELIVERED AT THE MOMENT. THEY HAVE GOT IMPROVED ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS TOO. (AND THERE ARE) NOT ONLY GREEK CYPRIOT FORCES BUT THERE IS A GREEK MECHANIZED BRIGADE ON THE ISLAND -- THAT IS FROM THE GREEK NATIONAL ARMY AS OPPOSED TO THE CYPRIOT SIDE AND THEIR ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS HAVE ALSO BEEN UPGRADED." (END OPT)
TEXT: ALTHOUGH THE ARMS DEAL HAS HEIGHTENED TENSIONS IN THE AREA, POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY IT HAS LESS TO DO WITH MILITARY CONCERNS THAN WITH DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERING ABOUT MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION.
FOR YEARS, TURKEY HAS WANTED TO BE A FULL MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BUT ITS MEMBERSHIP HAS BEEN BLOCKED BECAUSE OF VARIOUS CONCERNS ABOUT HUMAN RIGHTS AND THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY. NOW CYPRUS ALSO HAS APPLIED FOR E-U MEMBERSHIP. SOME ANALYSTS BELIEVE THE GREEK CYPRIOTS DECISION TO BUY THE RUSSIAN MILITARY SYSTEM IS A NEGOTIATING PLOY TO FORCE TURKEY INTO CONCESSIONS LEADING TO A UNITED CYPRUS -- THE ONLY WAY THE CURRENTLY DIVIDED ISLAND COULD BECOME PART OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.
KEITH KYLE IS A MIDDLE EAST EXPERT AT LONDON'S ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS. HE SAYS THE GREEK CYPRIOTS SEE 1997 AS A CRITICAL YEAR IN TERMS OF RESOLVING THE PARTITION OF CYPRUS.
TAPE: CUT # 4 - KYLE
"THE GREEK CYPRIOTS ARE DETERMINED THAT THE CYPRUS PROBLEM SHOULD BE SETTLED DURING 1997. THEY HAVE AN APPLICATION IN FOR MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION. THEY HAVE RECEIVED A PROMISE THAT NEGOTIATIONS ABOUT THIS APPLICATION SHALL BEGIN SIX MONTHS AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT (EUROPEAN) INTER-GOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE : THAT MEANS THE BEGINNING OF 1998. SO THE GREEK CYPRIOTS ARGUE THEY ONLY HAVE 1997 IN WHCIH TO SETTLE THE PROBLEM OF CYPRUS."
TEXT: WITH TURKEY'S APPLICATION ON HOLD, GREECE HAS THREATENED TO VETO ENLARGEMENT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION UNTIL THE ISSUE OF CYPRUS MEMBERSHIP IS RESOLVED.
POLITICAL ANALYSTS ALSO POINT OUT GREECE AND TURKEY ARE PART OF NATO -- AND ANY HEIGHTENING OF TENSIONS BETWEEN TWO MEMBERS OF THE WESTERN MILITARY ALLIANCE IS WORRYING.
KIRSTIE HUGHES -- DIRECTOR OF EUROPEAN PROGRAMS AT LONDON'S ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS -- SAYS TURKEY IS LINKING NATO ENLARGEMENT TO ITS APPLICATION FOR MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION.
TAPE: CUT # 5 - HUGHES
"IT SEEMS THAT BEHIND THE SCENES TURKEY IS SAYING IF NATO WANTS TO ENLARGE -- AND IT IS PLANNING TO ANNOUNCE ITS ENLARGEMENT DECISIONS TO THE FIRST EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR -- THAT IT, TURKEY, SHOULD BE ALLOWED INTO THE EUROPEAN UNION. ITS MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION HAS BEEN LEFT ON THE TABLE FOR MANY, MANY YEARS NOW AND IT IS THREATENING TO VETO THE WHOLE NATO ENLARGEMENT PROCESS."
TEXT: TAKING ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS TOGETHER, POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY THE HEIGHTENED TENSIONS OVER CYPRUS HAVE RAMIFICATIONS WHICH GO FAR BEYOND THE ISLAND'S BORDERS.
(OPT) ON THE STRICTLY MILITARY FRONT, THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT HAS THREATENED STRONG ACTION -- INCLUDING A POSSIBLE NAVAL BLOCKADE OF CYPRUS -- IF THE GREEK CYPRIOTS GO AHEAD WITH THEIR PURCHASE OF RUSSIAN ANTI-AIRCRAFT MISSILES.
COLONEL TAYLOR FROM LONDON'S INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES SAYS ANKARA'S STATEMENTS MUST BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AND NOT TREATED AS MERE SABER-RATTLING.
TAPE: CUT # 6 - TAYLOR
"I WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE TURKISH SIDE AND PARTICULARLY WITH ITS PRESENT GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT SHY AWAY FROM TAKING ANY ACTION THEY PERCEIVE TO BE NECESSARY, ALTHOUGH THEIR ARMED FORCES ARE PRETTY BUSY IN EASTERN TURKEY RIGHT NOW -- AND MAYBE THE GREEK CYPRIOT SIDE MAY JUST TRY TO EXPLOIT THAT - BUT I THINK HISTORY SHOWS THAT THE TURKS, WHEN NECESSARY, WILL ACT WITH DETERMINATION." (END OPT)
TEXT: (OPT) FOR DEFENSE ANALYST PAUL BEAVER, THE CONTINUING PROBLEMS BETWEEN GREECE AND TURKEY ARE JUST PART OF THE TENSIONS IN THAT UNPREDICTABLE REGION OF THE WORLD.
TAPE: CUT # 7 - BEAVER
"THE PROBLEM WITH THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AT THE MOMENT IS THAT WE HAVE TENSIONS OVER THE AEGEAN SEA'S FISHING AND OIL RIGHTS - AND THAT IS BETWEEN GREECE AND TURKEY. WE HAVE TENSIONS IN CYPRUS BETWEEN THE TWO COMMUNITIES AND AGAIN - THAT IS BETWEEN GREECE AND TURKEY. WE HAVE TENSION IN SOUTHERN LEBANON BETWEEN HEZBOLLAH AND THE ISRAELIS. WE HAVE TENSION IN SYRIA ON THE GOLAN HEIGHTS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND SYRIA. WE HAVE TENSION ON THE WEST BANK : IT IS NOT A VERY PLEASANT PART OF THE WORLD -- AND WHAT CONCERNS ME AND A LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE FEEL THE SAME WAY, IS THAT ONE SPARK IN ONE PART OF THE AREA CAN CAUSE SOME REPERCUSSIONS THAT WE REALLY DO NOT WANT TO SEE." (END OPT)
TEXT: MANY DEFENSE AND POLITICAL ANALYSTS BELIEVE IT IS TIME TO REDOUBLE EFFORTS ON THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT TO TRY TO RESOLVE THE CYPRUS ISSUE AND AVOID WHAT MANY EXPERTS CONSIDER A NIGHTMARE SCENARIO : A WAR BETWEEN TWO NATO ALLIES - GREECE AND TURKEY - OVER CYPRUS. (SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/NES
29-Jan-97 2:28 PM EST (1928 UTC) NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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