DATE=1/14/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42360
TITLE=TURKEY/GREECE/CYPRUS
BYLINE=AMBERIN ZAMAN
DATELINE=ANKARA
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: SENIOR TURKISH OFFICIALS SAY GREEK PLANS TO DEPLOY
RUSSIAN MADE S-300 SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILES ON THE ISLAND OF CRETE
WILL DANGEROUSLY ESCALATE MILITARY TENSIONS BETWEEN THE TWO NATO
ALLIES. GREECE LAST MONTH DECLARED IT WOULD PROBABLY DEPLOY THE
MISSILES AFTER GREEK-CYPRIOT PRESIDENT GLAFCOS CLERIDES ANNOUNCED
HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT DEPLOY THE CONTROVERSIAL MISSILES ON
THE DIVIDED ISLAND OF CYPRUS. MR CLERIDES' DECISION FOLLOWED
SUSTAINED TURKISH THREATS TO DESTROY THE MISSILES IF THEY WERE
DEPLOYED. AMBERIN ZAMAN HAS MORE FROM ANKARA.
TEXT: THE GREEK-CYPRIOT GOVERNMENT'S PERCEIVED RETREAT IN THE
FACE OF TURKISH MILITARY THREATS WAS WIDELY HAILED BY THE WEST AS
MARKING AN END TO WHAT CAME TO BE KNOWN AS THE "S-300 CRISIS."
MANY FEARED TURKISH MILITARY ACTION AGAINST THE GREEK CYPRIOTS
COULD ESCALATE INTO A BROADER CONFLICT PITTING TURKEY AGAINST ITS
FELLOW NATO MEMBER, GREECE.
TURKEY'S MINISTER RESPONSIBLE FOR CYPRUS, SUKRU SINA GUREL, SAYS
THE S-300 CRISIS IS NOT OVER.
/// BEGIN GUREL ACT IN ENGLISH ///
I WISH I COULD SAY THAT. BUT UNFORTUNATELY THE ONLY WAY
WE CAN VISUALIZE, IN ORDER TO SAY THAT THE CRISIS IS
OVER, CAN BE AN OPEN AND VERY CLEAR DECLARATION ON THE
PART OF THE GREEK CYPRIOTS AND GREEK ADMINISTRATION TO
THE EFFECT THAT THESE MISSILES WILL NOT BE DEPLOYED IN
THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN, IN ANY PLACE IN EASTERN
MEDITERRANEAN, BUT UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE NOT AT THAT
STAGE YET.
/// END ACT ///
MR. GUREL WARNS THAT SHOULD THE MISSILES BE DEPLOYED ON CRETE
THIS WILL MERELY SHIFT THE CRISIS AWAY FROM CYPRUS TO THE AEGEAN
SEA, WHERE TURKEY AND GREECE ARE LOCKED IN BITTER DISPUTES OVER
TERRITORIAL WATERS AND AIRSPACE.
/// 2ND GUREL ACT ///
IF THAT WERE TO TAKE PLACE THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE
THREAT THOSE MISSILES CREATE AND THE CYPRUS QUESTION
WILL NOT BE BROKEN. AND IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER LINKAGE ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE AEGEAN ISSUES
AND A THREAT AGAINST THE BALANCE IN THE AEGEAN AND THOSE
MISSILES IN CRETE. SO, THEREFORE DEPLOYMENT IN CRETE
WILL CREATE FURTHER DIFFICULTIES AND A NEW THREAT
AGAINST NOT ONLY TURKEY, BUT ALSO AGAINST THE BALANCE IN
THE WHOLE REGION.
/// END GUREL ACT ///
SOME ANALYSTS SAY THAT SHOULD GREECE PROCEED WITH PLANS TO DEPLOY
THE MISSILES ON CRETE THIS WOULD ALSO POSE PROBLEMS FOR NATO.
HASAN UNAL IS AN EXPERT ON THE BALKANS AT ANKARA'S BILKENT
UNIVERSITY.
/// BEGIN UNAL ACT ///
IF THE MISSILES ARE DEPLOYED IN THE REAL MILITARY SENSE
ON THE EASTERN PART OF CRETE, THESE MISSILES ARE LIKELY
TO CREATE A NUMBER OF PROBLEMS BOTH FOR GREECE AND FOR
NATO. THE GREEKS ARE NOT ONLY BRINGING THE MISSILES
FROM THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, BUT ALSO RUSSIAN OFFICES
AND RUSSIAN TECHNICIANS WOULD BE COMING TO CRETE TO
OPERATE THESE MISSILES AND THESE MISSILES' RADAR SYSTEM
IS QUITE EFFECTIVE. THEREFORE ALL OF THE ACTIVITIES OF
THE NATO BASES ON THE SAME ISLAND WOULD BE UNDER
SCRUTINY BY THE RUSSIAN OFFICERS AND THE RUSSIAN
TECHNICIANS.
/// END UNAL ACT ///
RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES HAVE RECENTLY TAKEN A
DOWNTURN. TURKEY AND GREECE NEARLY WENT TO WAR IN 1996 OVER A
TINY ROCK ISLAND IN THE AEGEAN KNOWN AS IMIA KARDAK AND WAR
PLANES FROM BOTH COUNTRIES ROUTINELY CONFRONT EACH OTHER IN
DISPUTED AIR SPACE OVER THE AEGEAN.
THE TWO COUNTRIES LAST FOUGHT EACH OTHER IN 1974, WHEN TURKISH
TROOPS INTERVENED ON CYPRUS AFTER GREEK CYPRIOT NATIONALISTS
TRIED TO MOUNT A COUP AIMED AT MAKING THE ISLAND PART OF GREECE.
SINCE THEN, CYPRUS HAS REMAINED DIVIDED BETWEEN THE GREEK SOUTH
AND THE TURKISH NORTH. (SIGNED)
LON/AZ/RAE
15-Jan-99 9:22 AM EST (1422 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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