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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

 
DATE=  10/28/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-37920
TITLE=CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS - PT. II
BYLINE=FRANK RONALDS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 
INTRO:  THIRTY-FIVE YEARS AGO THIS MONTH, THE UNITED STATES AND 
THE FORMER SOVIET UNION FOUND A WAY TO RESOLVE THE CUBAN MISSILE 
CRISIS -- AND AVERT THE POSSIBILITY OF NUCLEAR WAR.  SINCE THEN, 
THE WORLD HAS NEVER COME AS CLOSE TO A NUCLEAR EXCHANGE -- BUT 
ANALYSTS SAY THE POSSIBILITY IS  NOT  AS REMOTE AS SOME MAY 
THINK.  WE HEAR MORE IN THIS SECOND OF TWO REPORTS BY V-O-A'S 
FRANK RONALDS. 
TEXT:  ALTHOUGH THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS ENDED PEACEFULLY, IT DID
NOT  PUT AN END TO THE NUCLEAR ARMS RACE.  ON THE CONTRARY, 
SOVIET LEADERS -- ESPECIALLY AFTER NIKITA KHRUSHCHEV'S FALL FROM 
POWER IN 1964 -- LAUNCHED AN ENORMOUSLY EXPENSIVE AND SUCCESSFUL 
EFFORT TO CATCH UP WITH THE UNITED STATES.  BY THE 1970'S, 
WASHINGTON AND MOSCOW REACHED AGREEMENTS LIMITING THE NUMBER OF 
INTER-CONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILES.  BUT IT WAS  NOT  UNTIL THE
END OF THE COLD WAR THAT THE SUPERPOWERS AGREED TO ACTUAL 
REDUCTIONS IN SUCH WEAPONS.  
LATE LAST YEAR, IN RESPONSE TO AN INITIATIVE BY THE ATLANTIC 
COUNCIL -- A NON-GOVERNMENTAL GROUP THAT SUPPORTS THE NORTH 
ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION -- MORE THAN 60 GENERALS AND 
ADMIRALS FROM 17 COUNTRIES, INCLUDING RUSSIA AND THE UNITED 
STATES, JOINED TO CALL FOR RAPID NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT UNDER A 
WORLDWIDE VERIFICATION SYSTEM.  
GENERAL LEE BUTLER, WHO WAS COMMANDER OF THE U-S STRATEGIC AIR 
COMMAND, SPOKE IN WASHINGTON (LAST YEAR), THE DAY BEFORE THE 
STATEMENT BY THE GENERALS AND ADMIRALS WAS RELEASED. 
                        // BUTLER ACT //
         A WORLD FREE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS NECESSARILY A WORLD 
         DEVOID OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS.  IS IT POSSIBLE TO FORM A 
         CONSENSUS ON THE PROPOSITIONS THAT NUCLEAR WEAPONS HAVE 
         NO  DEFENSIBLE ROLE, AND THAT, AS TRUE WEAPONS OF MASS 
         DESTRUCTION, THE CASE FOR THEIR ELIMINATION IS A 
         THOUSAND-FOLD STRONGER AND MORE URGENT THAN THAT FOR 
         DEADLY CHEMICALS AND VIRUSES WIDELY DECLARED IMMORAL, 
         ILLEGAL, SUBJECT TO DESTRUCTION AND PROHIBITED FROM ANY 
         FURTHER PRODUCTION?  I AM PERSUADED THAT SUCH A 
         CONSENSUS IS  NOT  ONLY POSSIBLE, IT IS IMPERATIVE.
                          // END ACT //
BUT OTHER SPECIALISTS HAVE SPOKEN UP TO SAY IT IS UNREALISTIC TO 
BELIEVE THAT NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAN BE ELIMINATED.  RICHARD HAASS, 
DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN POLICY STUDIES AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, 
POINTS OUT THAT THE TECHNOLOGY FOR MAKING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS NOW 
WIDELY KNOWN.
                         // HAASS ACT //
         // OPT //  I DON'T SEE ANY WAY TO DISINVENT AN IDEA.  
         THE IDEA IS OUT THERE.  OTHER PEOPLE CAN NOW GO AHEAD, 
         WHETHER THEY'RE GOVERNMENTS OR EVEN, CONCEIVABLY, IN THE
         FUTURE, SOME NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS.  SECONDLY, 
         I DON'T KNOW ANY WAY TO HAVE AN INTERNATIONAL 
         VERIFICATION SYSTEM THAT IS A HUNDRED PERCENT FOOLPROOF.
         // END OPT //  
         WE'VE LEARNED OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS WITH BOTH (NORTH) 
         KOREA AND IRAQ, WE OFTEN DON'T KNOW (ARE NOT AWARE OF) 
         WHAT WE DON'T KNOW.  AND INDEED, THE WHOLE IDEA THAT YOU
         WILL GET EVERYONE IN THE WORLD TO SIGN UP TO SUCH A 
         SCHEME, BOTH THE NUCLEAR HAVES AND THE NUCLEAR 
         HAVE-NOTS, SEEMS TO ME TO BE A FORM OF OPTIMISM OR 
         IDEALISM THAT IS SIMPLE SO FAR FROM REALITY AS TO  NOT  
         BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.
                          // END ACT //
// OPT // EVEN IF RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES LEAD THE WAY, MR. 
HAASS SAYS, HE DOUBTS THAT OTHER COUNTRIES WILL BE WILLING TO 
FOLLOW SUIT.
                     // OPT //  HAASS ACT //
         THE BRITISH AND FRENCH MAY DECIDE TO KEEP A CERTAIN 
         SIZED ARSENAL JUST AS THEIR BEST INSURANCE POLICY TO 
         RETAIN SOME FORM OF GREAT POWER STATUS.  CHINA HAS A 
         RANGE OF AMBITIONS AND A RANGE OF COUNTRIES IT IS 
         CONSIDERING ITSELF TO BE MEASURED AGAINST.  ONE IS 
         RUSSIA, ONE IS THE UNITED STATES.  IT'S ALSO THINKING 
         ABOUT JAPAN AND ITS POTENTIAL MILITARY STRENGTH.  CHINA 
         IS AN EMERGING GREAT POWER.  SO I DON'T NECESSARILY SEE 
         WHERE U-S AND RUSSIAN REDUCTIONS WOULD LEAD THE CHINESE 
         TO FOLLOW SUIT.  WHEN IT COMES TO THE UNDECLARED 
         (NUCLEAR) POWERS -- AND HERE WE ARE ESSENTIALLY TALKING 
         RICHT NOW ABOUT ISRAEL, PAKISTAN AND INDIA.  IN THE 
         FUTURE WE MAY ALSO BE TALKING ABOUT SEVERAL OTHERS: THE 
         IRANS, THE IRAQS, WHO KNOWS WHO ELSE -- I DON'T SEE ANY 
         OF THEM WILLING TO GIVE UP THEIR NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES OR
         THEIR NUCLEAR OPTIONS UNTIL THE SOURCES OF THEIR 
         STRATEGIC CONCERNS ARE MET.
                    // END ACT // END OPT //
THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY HAS THE JOB OF PREVENTING 
THE SPREAD OF FISSILE MATERIALS OR THE BUILDING OF NUCLEAR 
DEVICES.  IT HAS THE FULL AUTHORITY OF THE UNITED NATIONS, WHICH 
VOTED IN 1995 TO EXTEND THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY 
INDEFINITELY.  
BUT THE AGENCY DEPENDS ON THE WILLINGNESS OF INDIVIDUAL STATES TO
PERMIT IT TO COME IN AND MONITOR WHAT IS GOING ON.  MICHAEL 
MANDELBAUM, A PROFESSOR AT THE SCHOOL OF ADVANCE INTERNATIONAL 
AFFAIRS AT JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY IN WASHINGTON, SAYS THE 
EXAMPLE OF IRAQ IS  NOT  REASSURING.  HE POINTS OUT THAT IRAQ'S 
NUCLEAR INSTALLATION AT OSIRAQ WAS DESTROYED BY AN ISRAEL AIR 
RAID IN 1981.  HOWEVER, AS A RESULT OF THE 1991 OPERATION DESERT 
STORM -- THE INTERNATIONAL REACTION TO THE IRAQI INVASION OF 
KUWAIT -- IT WAS DETERMINED THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN'S GOVERNMENT HAD 
CONTINUED TO WORK INTENSIVELY TO PRODUCE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
                      // MANDELBAUM ACT //
         // OPT // AS AN IMPORTANT BY-PRODUCT, OPERATION DESERT 
         STORM DESTROYED OR CRIPPLED MUCH OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE 
         ON WHICH SADDAM HAD LAVISHED HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS, 
         PERHAPS BILLIONS, OF HIS PETRODOLLARS IN ORDER TO LAY 
         THE BASIS FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM.  // END OPT // 
         THE IRAQI PRECEDENT, HOWEVER, IS  NOT  ALTOGETHER 
         ENCOURAGING.  FIRST, IT SHOWS THAT A COUNTRY THAT HAS 
         DETERMINATION, A STRONG LEADER AND A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF 
         MONEY, CAN LAUNCH A PROGRAM TO ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPONS. 
         SECOND, IT DEMONSTRATES THAT SUCH A COUNTRY CAN CONCEAL 
         ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS-MAKING PROGRAM FROM THE 
         INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, FOR THAT, IN FACT, IS WHAT IRAQ
         DID.
                           //END ACT//
ABOUT TWO-THOUSAND STRATEGIC NUCLEAR MISSILES HAVE BEEN MOVED TO 
RUSSIA OUT OF BELORUS, KAZAKHSTAN AND UKRAINE, WHICH ARE NOW FREE
OF SUCH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.  // OPT //  THE COSTS 
INVOLVED WERE COVERED LARGELY BY THE U-S CONGRESS, UNDER THE 
COMPREHENSIVE THREAT REDUCTION ACT KNOWN COMMONLY AS THE 
NUNN-LUGAR BILL, AFTER THE TWO SENATORS WHO SPONSORED IT.  MORE 
THAN TWO BILLION DOLLARS HAVE SO FAR BEEN SPENT BY THE U-S TO 
HELP THESE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS, AS WELL AS RUSSIA, REDUCE THE
THREAT THOSE WEAPONS PRESENTED.  // END OPT // 
BUT RUSSIA -- IN ADDITION TO ITS REMAINING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR 
MISSILES -- HAS AN ESTIMATED 30-THOUSAND TACTICAL NUCLEAR 
WEAPONS, SOME SMALL ENOUGH TO BE PUT IN THE TRUNK OF AN 
AUTOMOBILE.  THESE PRESENT A GREAT THREAT OF PROLIFERATION, SINCE
THEY COULD FAIRLY EASILY BE LOST, SOLD, OR STOLEN. 
// OPT // THE SITUATION FACING US TODAY, FORMER SENATOR SAM NUNN 
SAYS, PRESENTS A STARK CONTRAST TO THE PERIOD OF THE COLD WAR. 
                      // OPT // NUNN ACT //
         THIS NATION IS SAFER NOW FROM ANY KIND OF MAJOR WAR THAN
         WE HAVE BEEN IN FIFTY YEARS.  BUT WE HAVE MOVED TO A 
         PERIOD WHERE WE HAVE A LOT LOWER STABILITY.  WE SEE THAT
         WITH ETHNIC BREAK-OUTS, WE SEE THAT WITH ALL SORTS OF 
         RELIGIOUS CONFLICT IN THE WORLD.  WE NO LONGER HAVE THE 
         RESTRAINING INFLUENCE OF TWO SUPERPOWERS TRYING TO 
         RESTRAIN THEIR CLIENTS TO PREVENT THAT ESCALATION.  WE 
         ARE IN A PERIOD OF TERRORISM.
                    // END ACT // END OPT //
 IN SHORT, EXPERTS ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE  NOT  OPTIMISTIC ABOUT 
THE FUTURE.  PROFESSOR MICHAEL MANDELBAUM'S POSITION IS 
UNAMBIGUOUS.
                    // 3RD MANDELBAUM ACT //
         I THINK THAT ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENTS IN WORLD 
         HISTORY IS LIKELY TO BE THE NEXT NUCLEAR WAR.  THIS MAY 
         TURN OUT TO BE THE MOST IMPORTANT, DEFINING EVENT OF THE
         POST-COLD WAR ERA, AND ITS CONSEQUENCES -- IF AND WHEN 
         THE NEXT NUCLEAR WAR DOES OCCUR -- ARE AWFULLY DIFFICULT
         TO FORESEE.
                          // END ACT //
THIRTY-FIVE YEARS AGO, A NUCLEAR WAR WAS AVOIDED, MOST 
SPECIALISTS AGREE, DUE TO THE CAUTIOUS AND ADROIT POLICY ADOPTED 
BY PRESIDENT JOHN KENNEDY.  TODAY, THE POSSIBILITY OF A NUCLEAR 
WAR BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA SEEMS REMOTE, IF  NOT  
QUITE IMPOSSIBLE.  BUT THE DANGERS OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION HAVE 
CLEARLY INCREASED.  FEW WOULD DENY THAT NUCLEAR PERILS ARE MANY 
AND THAT THE WORLD REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS PLACE. (SIGNED)
NEB/FR/WFR/MMK
28-Oct-97 12:27 PM EST (1727 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
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