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Cuba's Comandante Steps Down

Council on Foreign Relations

February 19, 2008
Author: Stephanie Hanson

When Cuban leader Fidel Castro temporarily ceded power to his brother Raul in July 2006, speculation ran rampant about just how ill he was, how Cubans would react, and whether U.S. policy toward the island would change. As it turned out, life in Cuba (and U.S. policy toward it) remained largely the same. But Fidel’s formal resignation, announced in the state-run Granma newspaper on February 19, is sure to set off another round of conjecture. Experts say the comandante’s legacy will loom large for the foreseeable future, but are divided on whether Washington will change its tack toward Cuba.

Fidel, who held power for forty-nine years, is the only leader most Cubans have ever known. As a result, most experts anticipate the one-party state—and Fidel’s influence within it—will persist. David Jessop, chief executive of the London-based Caribbean Council, tells the Financial Times that “Fidel could play the role of ideological watchdog.” Fidel himself indicated he would continue to communicate with the Cuban people in written form. “This is not my farewell to you,” he wrote in Granma. “My only wish is to fight on as a soldier in the battle of ideas.”

But that battle will likely be led by Raul, who is expected to be appointed president on January 24 when Cuba’s National Assembly meets. Unlike his brother, Raul will face pressure from the population to ease their growing economic hardship (Times of London), and his statements during his year-and-a-half in charge have raised public expectations. Most Cubans rely on the black market to eke out a living. Raul has already solicited suggestions for improvement in the Cuban system, and some observers suggest he aspires toward the Chinese economic model, which he has studied since 1997.

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Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.