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Analysis: Cuba's Slow Motion Change

Council on Foreign Relations

September 12, 2006
Prepared by: Stephanie Hanson

After a flurry of news reports and speculation, the excitement following Fidel Castro’s early August transfer of power to his younger brother Raul finally seems to have died down. The calm dashed the expectations of American Cuba watchers—some of whom had actively hoped for a military coup, while others predicted upheaval in the streets of Havana. In fact, Cuba under Raul’s leadership has been remarkably tranquil. Analysts have grown cautious: Many now say they don’t anticipate any moves toward democracy (Washington Times), even after Fidel Castro’s death.

Raul, profiled here by NBC’s Robert Windrem, is thought to be more pragmatic on economic matters than Fidel, and he is expected to open the economy somewhat after Fidel’s death. Given the unknown severity of Fidel’s illness and Raul’s advanced age (he’s seventy-five), it’s entirely possible that Raul’s tenure will be a short one. As a result, attention has turned to the layer of figures beneath him (LAT)—Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon, and Vice President Carlos Lage. Roque is a hard-liner who wants to maintain Fidel’s socialist model, Alarcon is a moderate and Cuba’s most experienced diplomat, and Lage, who implemented limited economic reforms in the early 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union, is seen as an economic pragmatist (ChiTrib). In an interview with CFR.org’s Bernard Gwertzman, Brian Latell, former CIA analyst for Cuba and author of After Fidel, thinks the most likely successor for Raul is Carlos Lage, who is “respected equally by Fidel and by Raul.”

Speculation also abounds about Venezuela’s role in a post-Castro Cuba. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez sends Cuba roughly 100,000 barrels of oil a day for virtually free and is largely responsible for the current stability of Cuban’s economy.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.