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Backgrounder: The Scope of China's Military Threat

Council on Foreign Relations

Author: Esther Pan, Staff Writer
June 2, 2006

Introduction

As the Pentagon tries to prepare the U.S. military for the future, military planners are looking to China as the next potential large-scale threat to the United States. The Defense Department’s most recent assessment of China’s power raises concerns about China’s military modernization and contends Beijing could one day try to dominate Asia or challenge U.S. hegemony. But some experts say China, while clearly spending large sums on defense, does not intend to challenge U.S. military dominance in Asia or anywhere else. They accuse the Pentagon of hyping the China threat to justify its own enormous budget.

What is the scope of the military threat presented by China?

The Defense Department's 2006 assessment of China's military power (PDF) cited long-term trends in China's modernization of its strategic forces—including its nuclear capacity, land- and sea-based access denial capabilities, and precision-strike weapons—that "have the potential to pose credible threats to modern militaries operating in the region." The report, seen as a bellwether of the U.S.-China relationship, showcased the Pentagon's view that China is the next big military threat to the United States. "There are some real concerns about China's military modernization," says Adam Segal, senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

But some critics say the Pentagon is exaggerating the military threat from China, and accuse defense officials of "threat procurement," building up China as an enemy in order to justify massive military spending on new defense and weapons systems. "I'm not sure why the Pentagon always uses a worst-case scenario when assessing the military threat from China, but it does," says Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.