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E.U. ARMS BAN ON CHINA UNLIKELY TO BE LIFTED BEFORE MID-2006: SCHOLARS

Central News Agency

2005-10-19 15:35:39

    London, Oct. 18 (CNA) Several European scholars said Tuesday that Taiwan will face an increasing military threat from China if Beijing succeeds in its lobbying to have the European Union lift its arms sales ban on China.

    The scholars made the comments while attending a seminar on "Taiwan-China Relations: What Role Can the European Union Play? " which is currently being held in London by the European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS) and the School of Oriental and African Studies of the University of London.

    At the same, the scholars predicted that the possibility of the E.U. lifting the arms sales ban before next July is minimal.

    According to Sebastian Bersick, a research fellow at the EIAS, even though Beijing has lobbied hard for a lifting of the ban, the E.U. has delayed doing so due mainly to a lack of improvement in China's human rights situation.

    Also, although France and Germany, the two leading E.U. members, have voiced their support for a lifting of the ban, Britain, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the union until the end of the year, reportedly is opposed to it. Austria which will hold the presidency for the first half of next year, is also against it, so their is little chance that the ban will be lifted before next summer, Bersick said.

    He added that the E.U.'s main allies, the United States and Japan, are also strongly opposed to a lifting of the ban.

    Nevertheless, Bersick also pointed out that it will be difficult for Taiwan to make a major diplomatic breakthrough in its relations with the E.U. as the member states have adopted the "one China" policy.

    Meanwhile, a Swedish scholar who has done much research into cross-Taiwan Strait relations, said that if the E.U. lifts the arms ban, Beijing will be able to acquire high-tech military equipment and thereby bolster its level of deterrence against possible U.S. intervention, which he said would pose a greater threat to Taiwan.

    Talking about the role that the E.U. can play in cross-strait relations, the scholar, who preferred to remain anonymous, said that the E.U. can safeguard and legitimize Taiwan's current status of autonomy by helping expand Taiwan's room to join the international community.

    The E.U. can also make it clear that if China launches an attack against Taiwan, it will join the United States, Japan, the Association of South East Asia Nations (ASEAN) and Australia to initiate an economic embargo against China, he said. He added that the E.U. should also contemplate ways to prevent and resolve possible cross-strait conflicts in the future.

    The scholar further said that the political dispute between the ruling and opposition parties in Taiwan has been a continuing source of tension in cross-strait relations, stressing that the parties should work together as well as reach a consensus on the cross-strait issues and express a clear and united stance that "Taiwan hopes to maintain its political autonomy" rather than "explain their own position" while facing the international community.

    Liu Shyh-fang, former secretary-general of the Executive Yuan, who also attended the seminar, called for the E.U. to play a more active role in helping resolve the problems between the two sides of the strait and in maintaining the current status quo in the strait.

(By C.C.Hwang and P.C.Tang)

Enditem/Li