Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

TYPE=ON THE LINE 

NUMBER=1-00943 SHORT # 1 

TITLE=ON THE LINE:THE U-S AND CHINA: ON A COLLISION COURSE?

EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY 619-0037

CONTENT=INSERTS AVAILABLE IN AUDIO SERVICES

THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE

Anncr:On the Line a discussion of United States policy and contemporary issues. This week, "The U-S and China: On a Collision Course?" Here is your host,---------.

Host:Hello and welcome to On the Line. China released the twenty-four crew members of the U-S reconnaissance plane that landed on Hainan island after a collision with a Chinese fighter plane over international waters on April 1st. China had demanded a U-S apology for the accident. President George W. Bush expressed regret over the loss of the Chinese pilot's life, but said that the U-S had nothing to apologize for. China is still insisting that the U-S end its reconnaissance flights in the South China Sea. The U-S and China will meet April 18th to discuss the return of the U-S plane and the reconnaissance flights, which the U-S has said it will continue. 

Douglas Paal is the president of the Asia Pacific Policy Center. He says that the Chinese handling of the Hainan incident reflects conflicting pressures on the Chinese leadership.

Paal: The Chinese leadership depends on two pillars. One is economic growth to substitute for the old ideology and to show the people that the government is worth having. The other thing is nationalism. And if they fall short in either category, they get out of power. So they could bluster for a few days with the United States on this nationalist card, but at the end this would cost them on the strategic side. 

Host: William Odom is director of national security studies at the Hudson Institute. He says that the United States will extract a price from China for holding the U-S crew.

Odom: Maybe not too conspicuously, they will let that leadership know that you don't get away with this indefinitely. You are going to pay. We paid our price. You are going to pay a price. I would not be surprised to see the Aegis destroyers sold to Taiwan, which I don't think there was a very high chance of their being sold until this incident. And in a way, that would help the more moderate leaders in China because they could say to the military, look, you have made it worse for yourself.

Host: David Aikman is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. He says that some Chinese see the United States as an enemy.

Aikman: There is a strain of thinking in Chinese strategic reports about the United States that seems to have the view that the U-S is permanently doomed to decline and that, by the year 2020 or 2030, that will be the point at which they think China will be on a par militarily with the United States. And the use of the term hegemon and the comparison of the warring states period that led to the Chin dynasty in 206 B-C to 221 B-C - all of that shows that they see themselves in a sort of global rivalry with us. Whatever we think about it, they seem to be acting out this kind of vision of China's national destiny.

William Odom from the Hudson Institute says that the return of the U-S crew shows that the political leadership in Beijing understands what is at stake in China's relationship with the U-S. For On the Line, this is --------.

Anncr:You've been listening to "On the Line" a discussion of United States policies and contemporary issues. This is --------.