Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=4/12/01

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=CRISIS AFTERMATH

NUMBER=5-49303

BYLINE=ED WARNER

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: The spy plane episode is over, but future clashes between the United States and China in the Pacific can happen again. Analysts say better communication between the two countries will help, but they add that China must understand the United States cannot be bullied into some kind of accommodation. It will continue to meet its obligations in the region. V-O-A's Ed Warner reports their views.

TEXT: Chinese have a gift for political theater, says Robert Manning, the director of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. According to the script, the downed spy plane was to make a villain of the Bush Administration and a hero of Beijing.

The script did not work out, says Mr. Manning, because the United States was not playing its part. It failed to make any significant concession and could only be pushed so far. China needs U-S help in joining the World Trade Organization and hosting the Olympics in 2008. Members of the U-S Congress began muttering about retaliation.

Beyond that, says Mr. Manning, there is a military imbalance that is not in Beijing's favor:

/// MANNING ACT 1 ///

I think that they know how weak they are militarily. They really have very little force projection capability. If they wanted to take on the United States militarily, they just do not have the capacity, and they know that. And I do not think they are suicidal.

/// END ACT ///

Even so, says Mr. Manning, there is a danger of increasing confrontation between the two nations in the Pacific. He believes closer communication is needed and clearer rules of procedure that will prevent future clashes:

/// MANNING ACT 2 ///

As they have modernized, our forces and theirs have operated in closer proximity in the Pacific. They are starting to bump into each other, literally and figuratively. We have this naval consultation agreement. I think we need one for air engagement, and we need a whole set of rules of the road for military-to-military communications when you have operations that are overlapping.

/// END ACT ///

Rules are fine if they are observed, says Larry Wortzel, director of the Asian Studies center at Washington's Heritage Foundation. But judging from his own experience as a U-S military attache in Beijing, he is skeptical of the Chinese living up to their obligations. They have a habit of picking unnecessary quarrels:

/// WORTZEL ACT ///

We have been complaining to them about this for some time. We have raised this and talked to them about this military maritime consultative commission. I was present when several high level U-S officials discussed this with the deputy commander of the Chinese navy and the chief of the general staff, and this was years ago. So they knew exactly what they were doing.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Wortzel says the spy plane episode will lead to a reexamination of U-S Chinese relations, but not to any serious policy change.

Surveillance flights must continue off the Chinese coast, says Michael O'Hanlon of Washington's Brookings Institution. The United States can make some conciliatory gestures or minor modifications:

/// O'HANLON ACT ///

But we cannot give China a lot because we are actually in international air space. There is just no reason to think that what we are doing is fundamentally inappropriate or wrong, and of course, we have every right to watch out for the well being of Taiwan in this situation, and we insist on that right.

/// END ACT ///

U-S and Chinese officials meet next week to discuss their military operations in the Pacific with the aim of avoiding future conflict, especially concerning Taiwan. (Signed)

NEB/EW/JWH