Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=04/10/01

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=U-S / CHINA / MILITARY (CQ)

NUMBER=5-49290

BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

/// EDS: REMOVING DATE REFERENCE IN FIRST ACT OF 5:49288 ///

INTRO: While Chinese and U-S diplomats work to resolve the dispute over the U-S spyplane and crew being held on Hainan island, Chinese military leaders appear to be taking a harder line. Some U-S policy analysts say the incident shows the Chinese military has more influence on foreign policy decisionmaking than in the past. V-O-A's Stephanie Mann reports.

TEXT: A week after the collision between a Chinese fighter and a U-S spyplane, diplomats from the two sides were quietly exchanging letters in search of a formula that would allow the release of the 24 American crewmembers.

But Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian continued the military's call for a tough line. He accused the United States of shirking its responsibility and said the Chinese people's indignation should motivate them to create a stronger country and stronger military.

Analysts say the military's attitude has been hardened by the recent defection of a senior Chinese army officer to the United States and suspicions about American intentions toward Taiwan.

/// OPT /// The visible role of the Chinese military in the current stalemate contrasts with the way the United States has handled the issue. The White House and the State Department have taken the lead role, while the Defense Department has remained in the background. /// END OPT ///

A specialist on Chinese security issues, Richard Fisher (of the Jamestown Foundation), says the People's Liberation Army has intentionally delayed resolution of the impasse over the spyplane. Mr. Fisher says the P-L-A has used the extra time to take advantage of having possession of the aircraft.

/// FISHER ACT ///

What we are seeing...is, I think, a deliberate attempt to stretch this matter out for as long as the P-L-A can get away with that - to exploit the aircraft for intelligence gain. And even if the internal equipment was disabled or smashed, there is an enormous amount of intelligence data to be learned about our antenna and about the broad configuration of the systems on the aircraft. And this will be of some great value to the P-L-A. They want to hold onto this. They want to lengthen this matter for as long as they can at a low boil.

/// END ACT ///

Former U-S State Department official Richard Solomon says the way China is handling the incident shows it is not happy with the American defense role in East Asia. Mr. Solomon (now head of the U-S Institute of Peace) says he expects there may be similar encounters in the future as the United States continues its surveillance activities, but he hopes the current tension subsides soon.

/// SOLOMON ACT ///

If it does not, it says something about the influence of the P-L-A and the so-called hardliners in Beijing. And that approach will put at risk an awful lot of the positive equities that China has in good relations with the United States.

/// END ACT ///

As part of China's military modernization program, the army was ordered to drop its commercial operations. The P-L-A turned instead to improving its skills and equipment, and its share of the state budget increased. Some analysts say this has translated into a greater military role in decisionmaking in international affairs.

Chinese sources say the leader coordinating the government's response to the spyplane incident is Vice President Hu Jintao. He played a key role in Beijing's reaction to the U-S bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade two years ago. Mr. Hu is widely believed in line to be the next Chinese President and Communist Party chief when President Jiang Zemin leaves office at the end of next year.

June Teufel Dreyer, a specialist on the Chinese military at the University of Miami, says Mr. Hu is in a precarious position - military hardliners want him to be tough on Washington while others are urging an approach that does not damage U-S relations.

/// DREYER ACT ///

I think Hu Jintao right now is a gentleman who is looking over both of his shoulders alternately, because being heir apparent in China is not really a very comfortable position. Several heirs apparent have been ousted, and in one case Lin Biao died, before they actually succeeded to the job. ... So he's being careful not to take a high profile and to stay well out of the public eye.

/// END ACT ///

/// OPT ///

But Hu Jintao does not have an established base of support in the military, as Scot Tanner, a specialist on Chinese politics at Western Michigan University, points out.

/// TANNER ACT ///

The major problem that the designated successor, Hu Jintao, has is that at present, we cannot find any senior military leader in China who has close personal ties to Hu Jintao. ... If I were Hu Jintao, that would be a source of considerable concern for me.

/// END ACT /// /// END OPT ///

Many analysts say if Mr. Hu agrees to a solution that appears soft, he will miss the chance to establish the support he needs among the military to guarantee his accession to the top positions of power. But if he finds a solution that does not make China look weak and also resolves the issue before President Jiang Zemin returns from his current overseas trip next week, analysts say that will be a big boost to his claim to the country's top job. (Signed)

NEB/SMN/KBK