Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
Pacific Chief: China Could Damage Taiwan, but not Hold It
By Linda D. Kozaryn
American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, March 29, 2001 - The security balance across
the Taiwan Strait is stable, but China's military buildup
threatens to tip the scale, according to the top U.S.
military officer in the Pacific.
"China is capable of causing damage to Taiwan," Adm. Dennis
Blair told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee
March 27. "It is not capable of taking and holding Taiwan.
"The 7th Fleet, in conjunction with the other forces that I
can bring to bear, can ensure that China would not be
successful in aggression against Taiwan should the decision
be made to commit our forces," the Pacific Command chief
said. However, he added, certain issues must be addressed
to keep the region stable.
"There has to be an enhancement of Taiwan's capability
through a combination of what they buy from us, what they
manufacture themselves and what they buy from others,"
Blair said.
Taiwan aims to improve its defenses, and to that end the
United States is considering selling it Aegis-equipped
destroyers and other military hardware. Blair said his
recommendation to the administration is based on what his
command deems necessary to maintain "sufficient defense."
Each year, the Chinese arsenal that can target Taiwan grows
by about 50 ballistic missiles. Last week, Blair told
Chinese officials that the "most destabilizing" parts of
their buildup are their intermediate- and short-range
missiles - the types China fired into the waters north and
south of Taiwan in 1996.
At present, Blair noted, the buildup of CSS-6 and CSS-7
missiles is not "militarily significant." But they will
become so as their numbers increase and accuracy improves,
he said.
This eventually will force a U.S. response, to maintain a
sufficient defense, he said. The United States supports a
"One China" policy rather than Taiwanese independence, but
it also is committed to the island's self defense under the
Taiwan Relations Act.
China's view is that the island is a renegade province, but
it has agreed not to use military force to resolve its
claims. Yet tensions between Taiwan and China persist in
light of China's military buildup.
China recently announced a 17.7 percent hike in its defense
budget. Blair said Chinese field commanders and other
officials have told him the increase would largely go for
personnel and maintenance. A certain amount would go to
acquisition, but he does not translate that directly into
weapons.
The admiral pointed out that the Chinese are having only
mixed success creating an effective combat capability using
weapons they purchased from Russia. Integrating training
and logistical support with the mother systems is
"difficult business," he said.
Blair said he has emphasized to Chinese leaders that the
force is not the best way to achieve "one China."
"The military side of this equation should be kept in the
background," he said. "The things that will draw China and
Taiwan together are nonmilitary ties - commercial,
financial, information, travel - those sorts of
activities.
"The Chinese agree," he said. "They want a peaceful
resolution as well, but ... they maintain the right to use
force and we maintain that resolution must be peaceful. And
that's where we are."
Taiwan should not define the entire U.S.-Chinese
relationship, Blair added. "I don't think that a military
confrontation between the United States and China is
inevitable," he said. "I believe that we should pursue
policies which make it less likely rather than more
likely."
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