Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=03/22/01

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=U-S / CHINA / TAIWAN

NUMBER=5-49191

BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

/// EDITORS: Bush-Qian meeting is scheduled for 4:05pm. Please adjust intro accordingly. ///

INTRO: Differences over Taiwan are the most sensitive aspect of shaky U-S-Chinese relations, and are (were) a key issue in this week's talks in Washington between President Bush, Secretary of State Colin Powell and visiting Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen. The Bush administration faces a controversial decision - bound to anger China - about whether to sell Taiwan advanced weaponry, including four destroyer warships equipped with sophisticated radar. V-O-A's Stephanie Mann reports.

TEXT: Vice Premier Qian Qichen says U-S-Chinese relations would suffer a serious setback if Washington sells Taiwan destroyers equipped with the Aegis radar system. China is concerned the radar would make its own missiles based along the Taiwan Strait irrelevant and also believes such a transfer would link Taiwan with future U-S missile defense systems.

The United States says it does not consult with China on American arms sales to Taiwan and will make a decision based on Taiwan's defense needs. President Clinton deferred a decision on Taiwan's request to buy upgraded weapons, and the Bush administration is expected to decide its course of action in April.

U-S law requires the United States to provide Taiwan the means to defend itself, while American agreements with China stipulate that U-S arms sales to Taiwan will not increase the quantity or quality of Taiwan's arsenal.

Larry Wortzel, the director of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, says Taiwan wants to be able to prevent Chinese forces from landing on Taiwan and from blockading the island.

/// WORTZEL ACT ONE /// (045)

To do that, I think that what they need are anti-ship missiles. They need weapons that will reach out a little further from their shore to stop an invasion fleet. They absolutely need the data links to help them direct air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles from some of the effective radars they have. They clearly need missile defenses, the most advanced available, and they need cruise missile defenses and radars that will pick up cruise missiles. That means the Aegis, when it's available.

/// END ACT ///

The Aegis radar system is capable of tracking more than 100 targets at a time and prioritizing each threat for an anti-missile or anti-aircraft response. /// OPT /// Beijing says sale of the Aegis is precluded by the 1982 Sino-U-S communiqué, but Washington says the accord allows the transfer. /// END OPT ///

China military specialist James Mulvenon says in addition to Aegis-equipped destroyers, Taiwan wants to buy submarines, anti-submarine aircraft, tanks and artillery, and various electronic systems. Mr. Mulvenon, at the Rand Corporation in Washington, says it's hard to know if Taiwan really needs all those items.

/// MULVENON ACT ONE /// 020

The decisions in Taiwan over what they request from the United States, unfortunately, are a mixture of political and military motives. Often, for them, the political symbolism of a given transfer or sale is as important as its military utility, so it's always been very difficult for us to figure out whether these requests actually reflect Taiwan's defense needs.

/// END ACT ///

Larry Wortzel says if the United States does not want to have to intervene in a conflict between China and Taiwan, it should make sure Taiwan has the ability to defend itself against the threat posed by the mainland.

/// WORTZEL ACT TWO /// 036 :18

The P-L-A, the People's Liberation Army, is very credible about building up those 300 or so missiles opposite Taiwan. It has an overwhelming number of aircraft - not necessarily superiority in quality, but in quantity of aircraft - that it can array against Taiwan, and it moves them around. It has an overwhelming number of naval surface warfare platforms that fire cruise missiles that can be used against Taiwan. So, it has the power to coerce.

/// END ACT ///

Most analysts say the military balance across the Taiwan Strait is tilting toward the mainland, given China's buildup of missiles and forces in its southeastern coastal provinces. The analysts also agree that China could not successfully invade Taiwan, but they say it could cause great damage by a naval blockade or missile attack. Beijing considers Taiwan part of China and has not ruled out the use of force, if Taiwan were to declare itself independent.

Mr. Mulvenon says in deciding what to sell Taiwan, the United States should look for some middle ground between not meeting Taiwan's defense needs and selling weapons that would overly anger China.

/// REST OPTIONAL ///

/// MULVENON ACT TWO /// 024 :50

The Chinese have clearly set a metric (measure) for what they regard as a successful or unsuccessful attempt to influence our arms sales with Taiwan this year. They have thrown down a gauntlet (issued a challenge) which says that, if we sell Aegis-equipped ships to Taiwan, that that is the last straw, and (they) have made a lot of vague threats about what they might do in response to it. The difficulty this administration faces is, if they don't sell the Aegis-equipped destroyers to Taiwan, there will be those on Capitol Hill and other places who will criticize the Bush administration for having capitulated to the Chinese. So it's a no-win situation from many perspectives.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Mulvenon and Mr. Wortzel say the United States may approve some kind of partial package or graduated sale. Moreover, Mr. Wortzel says, production schedules may force a delay. For example, he says, if Washington decides to sell Taiwan the Aegis radar system, the equipment would not be ready for delivery for at least six or seven years. If China stops its threatening posture and reduces its missiles poised against Taiwan in the interim, Mr. Wortzel says, then perhaps the deliveries would not be necessary. (Signed)

NEB/SMN/TDW