Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=3/9/2001

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-49125

TITLE=CHINA / POLITICAL SUCCESSION

BYLINE=LETA HONG FINCHER

DATELINE=BEIJING

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

/// EDS: GOOD FOR USE THROUGH MARCH 15 ///

INTRO: As China's parliament meets for its annual session in Beijing (the session began March 5th and will run through March 15th), much of the real political action is taking place behind the scenes. Five of the seven members of China's ruling Standing Committee of the Politburo are expected to step down next year, and jockeying for their positions has already begun. V-O-A's Leta Hong Fincher brings us this report on the struggle for power in the Chinese Communist Party.

TEXT: By all assessments, China is at a crossroads. The next decade will bring with it economic challenges - not the least of which is carrying out the drastic market-opening measures required by the country's entry into the World Trade Organization.

Liberalizing the economy is a major step for the conservative one-party system. And China's current leaders are looking to ensure that the gains they have made, and their legacies, will be nurtured and promoted by the next generation of politicians.

Premier Zhu Rongji is China's top economic official, and the man credited with securing W-T-O membership.

/// ZHU ACT IN CHINESE--ESTABLISH & FADE ///

When Mr. Zhu opened this year's National People's Congress, he spent much of his 100-minute speech outlining the problems China needs to address in order to prosper. Only a confident Chinese leader would be able to present such a frank assessment of the country's challenges.

Mr. Zhu retires from government in 2003. But his vision for China faces stiff competition from conservative leaders like Li Peng, the head of China's legislature, who will to try to promote leaders in favor of more state intervention in the economy.

Bob Broadfoot, managing director of the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy in Hong Kong, says the jockeying for top positions in the Chinese Communist Party is already well underway.

/// 1ST BROADFOOT ACT ///

/// OPT /// All of these people are aligned to various factions and espouse various policies, which some groups agree to and some groups don't. /// END OPT /// So what you're seeing is the Chinese version of campaigning to see whose policies are going to be put in place for the medium term.

/// END ACT ///

The most powerful men in China - President Jiang Zemin, Premier Zhu, Parliament chief Li and at least two other leaders on the elite Standing Committee of the Politburo - must retire at next year's 16th Communist Party Congress, held once every five years. /// OPT /// In addition, more than half of the Party's 200-plus central committee members could be stepping down. /// END OPT ///

Jean-Pierre Cabestan, director of the French Center for Research on Contemporary China in Hong Kong, says that so far, Mr. Zhu's reformist camp has taken the lead. He says the recent appointment of Li Rongrong as new head of the State Economic and Trade Commission bodes well for further economic reforms.

/// 1ST CABESTAN ACT ///

I think it's a sign of Zhu Rongji's position being strengthened, because Li Rongrong is close to Zhu Rongji, and even if Zhu Rongji retires from the State Council in 2003, there will be a number of his close associates holding key positions in the central government.

/// END ACT ///

Unlike past eras of Chinese Communist rule, which were defined by the supreme leader Mao Zedong and his successor, Deng Xiaoping, this time around, no individual wields enough power to decide the future of the country.

/// BEGIN OPT /// Mr. Cabestan says President Jiang Zemin has not been able to keep the upper hand in the political maneuvering. Mr. Jiang failed to promote his protégé, Zeng Qinghong, to the Politburo Standing Committee last fall, and since then he has enjoyed less support than several years ago.

/// 2ND CABESTAN ACT ///

Jiang Zemin has been criticized on a number of issues, like the policy of oppression of Falun Gong and his attempt to build a new cult of personality above other leaders. So Jiang Zemin has entered a more choppy [uneasy] period of time.

/// END ACT ///

Analysts say Mr. Jiang is trying to hold onto his position as head of China's military even after he steps down as president, but other senior leaders are pressing him to retire completely. /// END OPT ///

The man most likely to succeed Mr. Jiang as China's top leader is the current vice president, Hu Jintao. He is best known for orchestrating nationwide protests following the bombing of China's embassy in Belgrade, by the United States in 1999. But beyond his nationalistic calls for resistance at that time, very little is known about Mr. Hu.

Mr. Broadfoot, of Hong Kong's Risk Consultancy, says the mystery surrounding Mr. Hu works to his advantage.

/// 2ND BROADFOOT ACT ///

He's sort of the perfect political leader: you don't know what his agenda is. You don't know what his policies are and, historically in China, that's a healthy thing. If you know what your policies are too early, if you show your hand too early, that's usually when you get in trouble.

/// END ACT ///

So while the economic reformers may have the upper hand for now, China watchers say political reformers are nowhere to be seen. Mr. Cabestan says the new generation of leaders will, at least for the next several years, focus on preserving social stability instead.

/// 3RD CABESTAN ACT ///

The more dangerous the economic situation is, the more unstable the social situation is, and the less the chance for political reform.

/// END ACT ///

China's leadership transition will officially begin in the fall of 2002, with the 16th Party Congress. But the power struggle may not end until March 2003, when the terms of the three most powerful men in the country come to an end.

/// REST OPT ///

Between now and then, each political appointment will help reveal which faction is prevailing: reformist, conservative or something in between. Whatever the outcome, China's new generation of leaders will have to cooperate closely to survive the wrenching economic and social changes that are bound to come. (Signed)

NEB/HK/LHF/JO/WTW