Last Wednesday's House of Representatives' vote approving Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) for China received widespread commendation on editorial pages in East and South Asia, Europe and the Western Hemisphere. Deeming the vote a "victory" for President Clinton and for "good sense," most opinionmakers judged that the passage of PNTR signaled the "historic, full return of China to the world stage" that would do more than any other single development to "integrate" China into the international system. These writers were optimistic that China's expected entry into the WTO later this year would bode well for increased democracy and "openness" in the PRC. An almost equal number, however, while welcoming the vote, voiced worries that rapid changes in China's economy would lead to significant increases in unemployment and a greater degree of social unrest. Other "worriers," mainly in East Asia, cast a wary eye at their "giant" neighbor and voiced concern about their own ability to compete economically with China. "Once it becomes a WTO member, China will officially debut on the world stage as a global trade heavyweight," said a conservative Seoul daily, adding: "The world will soon find itself wrestling over the Chinese market." Following are additional themes in the commentary:
AN END TO U.S. 'ISOLATIONISM'?: Many editorial writers hailed what they perceived to be an "end" to U.S. "isolationism" and Washington's "traditional policy of restraining China." Dailies from Australia to South Korea to Britain heaped credit on Mr. Clinton for his hard-fought battle to secure PNTR, and judged that--in the words of London's independent Financial Times, the president's "success is an encouraging sign that, for all the talk of globalization backlash, Congress remains ready to back free trade initiatives when the case is made with clarity, vigor and conviction." Echoing that view, Sydney's national, conservative Australian added: "The outcome confirms the Congress is able to overcome parochial concerns and support far-sighted foreign policy when the president shows leadership." A few, such as Singapore's pro-government Business Times contended that, even though Mr. Clinton had performed well as a "political tactician," he had failed to bring about a fundamental shift in his own party in the direction of free trade.
HUMAN RIGHTS: While a number of analysts held that the passage of PNTR would lend support to "reform-minded" Chinese officials and would bring about democratic changes in the PRC, many held that such changes would not be "swift" in coming. Some, arguing that the human rights provisions in the PNTR bill were "toothless," saw China as now liberated from having to worry about human rights concerns.
VIEWS FROM TAIWAN: Dailies expressed a range of views, but both pro-independence and pro-status quo dailies did not expect any "fundamental change" from Beijing on the Taiwan issue as a result of the PNTR vote.
EDITOR: Kathleen J. Brahney
EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 49 reports from 21 countries, May 26- 30. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.
CHINA: "Analysis Of 'China Threat' Theory"
Shi Xiaohui had this to say in official, Communist Party People's Daily (Renmin Ribao, 5/30): "The United States' listing China and Russia as its primary threats is nothing more than re-harping on the old tune of the Cold War. The 'threat theory' is designed to shield the NMD and TMD system from public opposition to build up its offensive capacity 'justifiably.' Therefore, it is only the United States that is dreaming about threatening the rest of the world."
"Businesses Hail U.S. PNTR Vote"
Meng Yan noted in the official, English-language China Daily (5/28): "Hailing it a historic win for the U.S. economy, U.S. businesspeople said passage of a bill granting China PNTR status by the U.S. House of Representatives paved the way for U.S. companies to benefit from China's accession to the WTO. Many firms believe PNTR will result in the generation of billions of dollars in U.S. exports to China, creating more opportunities for U.S. companies and more jobs for U.S. workers."
"PNTR Passage Wise: Human Rights Clause Slammed"
Shao Zongwei had this to say in the official, English-language China Daily (5/26): "Chinese officials said that the U.S. House of Representatives' passage of a bill granting China PNTR was 'wise,' but certain provisions within the measure are not. The provisions, in effect, interfere in China's internal affairs under the guise of human rights and...harm Chinese interests, said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue. 'The settlement of PNTR will not only lead to development of China-U.S. economic and trade ties on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, but will also help create conditions for the sound and steady development of China-U.S. relations.'... However, Zhang stressed that the Chinese side has already made clear to the U.S. government that it opposes the clauses, which are an attempt to interfere in China's internal affairs, and will not accept them."
"MOFTEC Spokesman's Remarks"
Official, Communist Party People's Daily (Renmin Ribao) ran this (5/26): "'China cannot accept the riders in the PNTR bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, which are an attempt to interfere in China's internal affairs in the name of human rights,' said Hu Chusheng, spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation. 'China reserves the right to react on the issue in the future. It is the duty of the U.S. to resolve the PNTR issue in a clear-cut manner.'... The spokesman urged the United States to correct its wrongdoing, so as to ensure a healthy and smooth development of China-U.S. economic cooperation and trade."
TAIWAN: "Positive Significance Of PNTR Vote"
An editorial in the centrist, pro-status quo China Times maintained (5/26): "Many people may have different views about granting the PNTR status for China, but in the long run, PNTR and the WTO entry will have profound influence and impact on China's society and politics. The influence and impact will be positive and immeasurable, and surely China will not be the only one that will benefit from such a development."
"Washington Will Still Push For China's Peaceful Evolution"
The conservative, pro-unification Economic Daily News said (5/26): "The [passage of the bill with the human rights conditions attached] shows that the House has to take into consideration those views that are against the PNTR bill. On the other hand, it also reflects that while seeking to open China's market, the United States will not give up the chance to push for China's peaceful evolution. For Washington, although PNTR will unlikely result in the direct political changes in China, it could at least create, through engagement, favorable situations in which such changes might take place.... Now, further economic liberalization and trade opening will not only help increase the calls for democracy, but will also form a greater challenge to the country's rulers. The free world should indeed play such a role of pressuring and pushing for changes [in China]."
"PNTR Won't Cure All China's Woes"
According to an editorial in the liberal, pro-independence Taipei Times (5/26): "Even making the most optimistic assumptions, the promised change in [China's] political culture is not likely to be achieved for a generation. In the meantime, China will be getting steadily stronger. This is not very heartening for those in the region, especially Taiwan, who are already feeling pressure from Beijing. And there are less rosy scenarios. Social unrest in China shows no sign of cooling down and WTO entry, at least in the near term, is likely to widen the gap between the haves and the have-nots, raising the risk of internal disturbances that could derail economic development. And the rigidity of China's current political system means that a political crisis cannot be ruled out. The more extreme possibilities include civil war. In short, PNTR and WTO entry will certainly bring economic benefits to China and its trading partners, including Taiwan, and they are to be welcomed. But we should not believe that they are a panacea for the many political and security issues that remain to be addressed."
"Impact Of PNTR"
The liberal, pro-independence Commons Daily told its readers (5/26): "After China is granted PNTR status, foreign investors, including those from Taiwan, will enjoy more and greater protection in China. Any disputes will be worked out or resolved by international regulations.... It is expected that after both sides of the Taiwan Strait join the WTO, issues like direct trade or investment, or even the three links will face a serious challenge. Given that situation, both sides must adopt a new way of thinking. It requires the greatest political wisdom of the leaders from both sides to show more goodwill, to normalize cross-Strait ties, to jump over the language hurdle of 'one China,' and to seek common ground."
"Economics, Human Rights And Cross-Strait Ties Under PNTR"
Yu Yu-lin declared in the centrist, pro-status quo China Times (5/26): "China's integration into the world trading system and its economic liberalization cannot fundamentally change Beijing's way of thinking on the framework of the cross-Strait ties.... Beijing's policy toward, or its pressure on Taiwan will not be changed after it enters the world's economic system. At most, the increased cross-Strait tension after President Lee Teng-hui brought up the 'special state-to-state relationship' doctrine last year may be reduced as the Beijing leaders pay more attention to economic issues. But in the long run, Beijing authorities will still return to...the Taiwan issue. For now, it would perhaps be a kind of wishful thinking if Taiwan holds high expectations that Beijing's economic liberalization will change [China's] Taiwan policy."
AUSTRALIA: "Clinton Saves Best For Last"
Greg Sheridan, foreign editor for Sydney's national, conservative Australian argued (5/26): "You can always rely on the Americans to do the right thing--but only after they've exhausted all other possible alternatives.... The U.S. House of Representatives' vote to grant China PNTR status...is a landmark vote, the most constructive and encouraging development in Asia-Pacific economics and international relations in a long time. It not only paves the way for China's long overdue entry into the World Trade Organization, but lays the basis for a sensible Sino-U.S. relationship, a sine qua non of Asia-Pacific stability. This bill.will do more than any other single development to integrate China positively into the international system.... This is perhaps Mr. Clinton's finest hour.and a good moment for everyone in the Asia-Pacific."
"Clinton Leads U.S. On China Trade Pact"
An editorial in the national, conservative Australian held (5/26): "The decision by the U.S. House of Representatives to approve the normalization of trade relations with China may be the greatest achievement of the Clinton presidency.... Another encouraging aspect of the vote is that it suggests free trade is not a lost cause in Washington. Despite their free trade rhetoric, U.S. legislators in recent years have shown an increasing tendency towards bilateral deals and 'strategic' management of trade flows.. The outcome confirms the Congress is able to overcome parochial concerns and support far-sighted foreign policy when the president shows leadership."
JAPAN: "PNTR: Big Step Toward Improving U.S.-China Relations"
Top-circulation, moderate Yomiuri's editorial stressed (5/26): "Without doubt, President Clinton, whose term is nearing its end, will leave office with a momentous diplomatic achievement [PNTR for China] under his belt. The House's approval of the bill is expected to improve Sino-U.S. relations and ensure China's early admission to the WTO.... China should not forget that it will come under intense scrutiny from the United States and the rest of the world over its progress in democratization and human rights."
"World Will Benefit From U.S.-China Trade Normalization"
An editorial in business-oriented Nihon Keizai observed (5/26): "We welcome the House's approval of the 'PNTR' bill for China as a move aimed at normalizing U.S.-China trade ties and at paving the way for China's admission to the WTO. It is imperative that the United States, China and Japan, as well as other nations concerned, work harder to formulate fair and transparent rules for free trade. Despite the bill's passage, there will not be any immediate improvement in Sino-U.S. relations or a sharp rise in bilateral trade, however. China has vowed domestic reforms in a bid to obtain support from major WTO member nations for its entry into the world trade body. Beijing's failure to carry out or delay its promised reforms may result in a U.S.-China confrontation within the WTO, creating a possible paralysis of its framework. If the United States does not compromise over the application of anti-dumping measures, the early launch of a new round of WTO negotiations cannot be realized. Japan, Europe and other Asian countries must also implement further reforms to draw a concession from the United States."
PHILIPPINES: "PNTR Provisions"
Singapore-based correspondent Al Dizon emphasized in top-circulation, independent Business World (5/30): "While PNTR is expected to pass the U.S. Senate in early June, the vote in the U.S. House In May was not certain....
"In an effort to boost support among House members, Clinton had provisions added to the PNTR legislation that would protect against import surges and create a permanent commission to monitor Chinese human rights. There is little doubt that the provisions helped secure a number of votes in favor of PNTR. However, PNTR opponents said the provision lacked real enforcement mechanisms and would do little to pressure China on its human rights record."
SINGAPORE: "China Trade Vote Not Really Such A Triumph For Clinton"
The pro-government Business Times featured this editorial page commentary (5/30) by Washington correspondent Leon Hadar: "Last week's China PNTR vote in the House should be seen as what it really was: A tactical legislative victory.... While it is true that Mr. Clinton has projected more commitment to globalization than some in his party...it is difficult to argue that he has transformed the direction of his party in a more free-market orientation or that he has invested a lot of political energy to achieve that goal.... In many ways, President Clinton has been unable to provide clear leadership on the issue of globalization and has bowed to the pressure of the protectionists in his party.... That Mr. Clinton, with the help of the Congressional Republicans, the business lobbyists and a small contingent of New Democrats, was able to find a way out of the mess created by his policy mismanagement and weakness on trade and China, and get the China trade accord approved by Congress, points again to what we have known all along. President Clinton has been a great political tactician. But a great president? That is yet to be decided."
"To The Fore For China"
The pro-government Straits Times judged (5/26): "The main beneficiary of PNTR will be American, not Chinese, companies and workers, for its passage means that the landmark trade agreement that China negotiated with the United States late last year can now take effect.... Mr. Clinton was right to indulge in a little pork-barreling. He did, however, make two substantial concessions which may cause the Chinese to balk. One was the creation of a commission to monitor human rights in China, which can recommend WTO-consistent sanctions, and the other, a mechanism to protect certain U.S. industries against surges in Chinese imports. Under the circumstances, it would be best if the Chinese ignored both provisions. They are toothless to begin with and, in any case, why look a gift horse in the mouth?"
SOUTH KOREA: "China's Rise"
Kim Chul-soo, former WTO secretary general, observed in independent Dong-A Ilbo (5/29): "With PNTR for China passed, the last barrier to the nation's WTO membership is finally down, and WTO membership, no doubt, will make China much more competitive. WTO membership will also serve as effective protection against anti-reform forces in the country.... For South Korea, China is both an economic opportunity and a challenge."
"PNTR And Transformation Of Sino-U.S. Relations"
Top-circulation, conservative Chosun Ilbo offered this view (5/26): "In addition to boosting trade ties with China, the passage of PNTR will provide mutual benefits for both the United States and China, especially in their foreign policy relationship. The passage of the bill will also fully bring China into the global trade order, a prospect that is likely to bring about a reshuffling of that order.. The United States gave first consideration to its economic interests in passing the bill.. Once China opens its market, its impact will certainly be felt across the world, and the world will soon find itself wrestling over the Chinese market."
"Cold-War Shackles On China Finally Released"
Moderate Hankook Ilbo drew these conclusions (5/26): "The U.S. House of the Representatives has brought down the last barrier against China's entry into the global market by passing the PNTR legislation. Even more significant is the political symbolism that the United States has abandoned its traditional policy of restraining China. As for China, the passage implies a historic, full return to the world stage as a key player for the first time since the 19th century.... It was clear that a new era of relations with China had to open, and the United States has acted in recognition of this. In addition, the United States figured it would be better if a rising China were part of an order controlled by the United States.... Again, China's 200 years of isolation has come to an end, with its global status fully recognized. A heightened status for China and a transformed Sino-U.S. relationship will contribute to regional stability in Asia. We welcome this."
"No More Questioning On Human Rights"
Washington correspondent Kang Hyo-sun observed in conservative Chosun Ilbo (5/26): "The good thing for the Chinese is that they now stand on fully equal footing with the United States in trade. Once it becomes a WTO member, China will officially debut on the world stage as a global trade heavyweight."
"Era Of Sino-U.S. Economic Detente"
Independent Joong-Ang Ilbo averred (5/26): "To its credit, the House bought the argument that carrots, not sticks, would be a more effective way to deal with China. In fact, the more exposed to the outside world China becomes, the more strength democratic values in China will gain. A transformed China, then, will become an impetus behind taking Sino-U.S. relations in the direction that will help establish a better global order for the 21st century."
THAILAND: "China Can Achieve Great Potential"
The lead editorial of the top-circulation, moderately conservative, English-language Bangkok Post judged (5/30): "The vote in the U.S. House of Representatives...was the proper decision.... One may hope that the coming entry of China into the WTO will bring a new, more open viewpoint to Beijing. World trade by definition means more openness, greater transparency, ever increasing access to all countries. The rigid policies and stances of Beijing on a number of important questions will continue to be tested in coming months and years."
"China And The World--A New Economic Era"
The top-circulation, moderately conservative, English-language Bangkok Post had this lead editorial (5/26): "When the giant walks, everyone feels the earth shake. This holds true particularly within Asia, where China's economic might will begin to challenge the strong Japanese economic foothold in the region. It cannot be stressed enough for both nations to work to improve their relations because East Asia's economic well-being depends on both China and Japan playing their parts. Both nations' roles in aiding the region during the 1998 crisis is a case in point to be commended.... Thailand may consider China a friend, but it should not be shy about telling China that it must also adhere to international trade rules so that everyone competes on the same level playing field. Any effort from Bangkok to help make China an active and legitimate member of the international trade community will be welcomed by the world."
BRITAIN: "China's Challenge"
The independent Financial Times had this editorial (5/26): "A victory for good sense. Bill Clinton deserves credit for the outcome. His success is an encouraging sign that, for all the talk of globalization backlash, Congress remains ready to back free trade initiatives when the case is made with clarity, vigor and conviction.... The WTO is adrift, reviled by external critics and beset by internal divisions and sterile debate. Without firmer direction, it risks being further destabilized by the arrival of its turbulent new member, and it wrestles with deep economic and social change. Helping China to meet the challenge is a top priority. WTO members must ensure that this historic event contributes to the organization's effectiveness, not to its undoing."
"A Much Needed Victory"
The independent weekly Economist said (5/26): "In immediate foreign policy terms, the passage of PNTR avoids a major breakdown of relations with China. PNTR will not dramatically improve Sino-American relations, but the failure to pass it would certainly have soured them. More broadly, foreign governments will regain a measure of confidence in the American administration's ability to deliver on its commitments. Bill Clinton's failure to gain fast-track trade-negotiating authority in 1997 cost America credibility in trade talks. The Senate's failure to pass the CTBT last year dealt another blow. If PNTR, too, had failed, foreigners might have questioned America's ability to deliver on any negotiated international commitments."
FRANCE: "Money And Politics"
Dominique Bromberger commented on government-funded France Inter radio (5/26): "Rarely has a foreign policy decision required such financial investment from U.S. businesses.... On Wednesday, the president of the United States and the world of business won. The unions lost. Officially, opening trade relations with China is supposed to help China with its reforms. In reality, the bill is a victory for Clinton's version of diplomacy.... In the Clinton era, the United States has adopted an 'all trade' vision of the world.... It is the economic and cultural powers which go out to conquer the world.... The absolute priority of economic tools to change the world will remain Clinton's major innovation in matters of diplomacy. And it will last after his presidency."
"Double Standard Between China And Cuba"
In right-of-center weekly Le Point, Michel Colomes noted (5/26): "Americans are forgiving China what they do not forgive Cuba."
GERMANY: "Clinton's Success"
Right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine's editorial pointed out (5/26): "The vote by the U.S. Congress to establish trade relations with China on a permanent basis is not only being welcomed in business circles. It is also a gain for politicians on both sides who backed this agreement and took great risks in the process. President Clinton can claim a great foreign policy success after weeks of trying to overcome resistance even in his own party. Chinese Minister President Zhu Rongji was spared the humiliation of being rejected by the Americans despite making far-reaching concessions to the superpower.... China now becomes a normal trading partner of the United States and will soon be a WTO member.
"But the country is still far from being a normal political partner for the United States. Disagreements over human rights, the question of reunification with Taiwan, and proliferation remain."
"America Says 'Yes' To China"
Herbert Kremp judged in right-of-center Die Welt of Hamburg (5/26): "The winner [in the PNTR vote] is the regime in Beijing: It no longer has to fear a debate in Congress over human rights nuances.... The agreed-on commission to investigate Beijing's conduct is a trick that allows trade questions to be separated from human rights issues. With this law, Washington's double strategy is coming into effect, which aims at binding China in an international network and securing that process with the help of military presence and alliance diplomacy in the Pacific."
"Turning Point For China"
Business Financial Times Deutschland of Hamburg predicted (5/26): "The treatment of democracy and human rights in China does not follow Western laws. Instead, it is more affected by market forces. The hardliners among the Chinese leadership know this, and that is why they fought the agreement with the United States. The same rules apply to China that once applied to the former Eastern bloc. The more open the trade routes, the harder it is for a dictatorship.... In general, the process of opening up an economy has its own dynamic via information, communication and the Internet. The agreement is a victory for reform-minded Premier Zhu Rongji, who hopes to achieve the necessary modernization of China by opening the markets. And he is willing to risk allowing more Western influence--even if such influence undermines the system. This is a historical turning point for China."
"Clinton Also Wants To Export U.S. Values"
Washington correspondent Dietrich Zwaetz noted in business Handelsblatt of Duesseldorf (5/26): "A day after the contested vote in Congress it is too early to judge whether such hopes can be reconciled with the political realities in China. What is correct, however, is Clinton's assessment that a country like China cannot be kept away from globalization and belongs in the WTO."
"The Long March"
Left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau opined (5/26): "Clinton owes the unexpectedly comfortable majority for the 'China package' to the Republicans, who do not have ideological reservations when it comes to good business deals.... It is another matter, of course, whether all the promises will be fulfilled. After challenging negotiations politicians tend to be pragmatists. After the vote, the word in Washington was that the road to China's markets would still be long and hard."
"China Profits From Competition Between Europe And U.S."
Nico Fried judged in an editorial in left-of-center Berliner Zeitung (5/26): "One should think of trade agreements as important, but one should not overestimate them.... WTO membership will not mean the end of state influence [in China.] It will also not do away with corruption and nepotism overnight. And it especially will not bring swift democracy.... Now that economic sanctions against China are no longer easily possible, the West should be careful not to give away all political tools for exerting pressure. In the future, Bill Clinton said, the United States will not only be able to sell American goods, but also American values. That sounds good. But one needs to make sure that some American values still exist before they can be offered."
ITALY: "China's New Long March Into The WTO"
Bernardo Valli contended in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (5/27): "The vote of the Congress and China's imminent entry in the WTO...strengthen President Jiang Zemin and Prime Minister Zhu Rongji.... WTO membership and the implicit normal trade relations with America represent essential guarantees to continue with the modernization of the country, i.e., to continue the political line of Zemin and Rongji. Which, in any case, remains full of unknown factors."
RUSSIA: "Big Business Rules The Roost"
Yevgeny Artyomov filed from Washington for reformist Izvestiya (5/26): "The U.S. Congress has overwhelmingly voted for lifting restrictions on trade with China. Washington calls this decision historic. The trade unions disagree, which puts the 'ruling' party's presidential candidate Al Gore in a critical situation--he risks missing thousands of votes. The president, vice president and leading Republicans in Congress are advocates of big business, which hopes to profit immensely by the opening of the Chinese market. Big business determines the United States' foreign trade policy.... Russia, with its inadequately developed economy and incomprehensible laws, is not among America's priority (trading) partners."
"Bill Worth $95 Billion"
According to Dmitry Kosyrev in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (5/26): "A fundamental change in relations between the United States and China--power Number One and power Number Two in the world--is what should be expected now. Yesterday's vote is worth $95 billion, an unattainable figure in China's trade with, say, its 'strategic partner' Russia. It is so big an event that it can be compared to NATO's aggression in Kosovo or Clinton's recent visit to India. Clinton has called it a historic step toward continued prosperity in America, reforms in China, and peace throughout the world. This is not an overstatement."
AUSTRIA: "The Right Decision"
Economic writer Richard Wiens commented in national Salzburger Nachrichten (5/26): "The U.S. House of Representatives...made the right decision.... It is questionable whether China will ever become a democracy of Western caliber. But the chances to trigger a reorientation or even the fall of the Communist regime are bigger when the country opens up economically to the West. It is no coincidence that the military and the reactionaries in China are among the fiercest opponents of the trade agreement with the U.S. and European Union.... Still, China's political leadership has realized that the barriers for foreign companies will have to fall, rather sooner than later.... The fact that now, in international trade, China will be treated like the other 136 countries does, of course, not relieve the West of its obligation to stand up against human rights violations. It is not that the end justifies the means, but there is no alternative to free trade. Democracy cannot be obtained by isolating China from the Western world."
BELGIUM: "Clinton Completes Free Trade Agenda"
U.S. correspondent Nathalie Mattheiem opined in left-of-center Le Soir (5/26): "For the president, who, in 1992, criticized the policy of opening of his predecessors vis-à-vis 'the Chinese dictators,' this is a complete turnaround. The normalization of U.S.-China trade relations completes [Mr. Clinton's] international policy based on free trade: NAFTA in 1993, and WTO in 1994."
CZECH REPUBLIC: "China's Opening Parallels Communism's Fate In Eastern Europe"
Milan Slezak underscored in economic Hospodarske Noviny (5/26): "The U.S. House of Representatives gave a fine present to communist China: Permanent Normal Trade Relations. Today China shows some characteristics similar to Eastern Europe in the second half of the 1980s: Everyone knows that the king is naked but they do not yet dare to say it openly. It is vitally important that in this intermission China open itself as much as possible to the outside world and gets inspiration. What else destroyed East European communism besides the comparison of opportunities of people in the much more developed West? Everything that aims at opening of China is good for China and for the whole world. Development of trade can contribute to that."
SPAIN: "Shadowy China"
Center-left El Pais offered this analysis (5/26): "The decision by Washington and Brussels to permit China's entry into the WTO has become something of a trump card in the fierce political struggle now being played out in Beijing. It is likely that the U.S. House vote will bolster the position of the reformists led by Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, who has found himself on the defensive of late. For their part, the conservatives are looking to regain their former power while President Jiang Zemin, who has been forced to paper over several slights at the hands of the United States over the past year, has taken to tactical fence-straddling by declaring that he favors greater Communist Party control over the blossoming private sector. China's accelerating pace of development and economic transformation notwithstanding, political change would appear to be a much longer-term process in this country whose history may be divided into millennia."
"Clinton's Coup"
Barcelona's centrist La Vanguardia commented (5/26): "The House of Representatives has given China's chances for admission into the global economic system a big boost with its historic vote to normalize trade relations between the United States and the Asian giant.... Ironically, the House vote also found Clinton allied with the same Republicans who impeached him over the Lewinsky affair."
"China: Somewhat More Liberal Already"
Commercial Expansion opined (5/26): "Another aspect of China's WTO entry with unforeseeable consequences is how it will manage the dismantling of its rigidly planned economy. Market opening could cause millions to be laid off, especially from inefficient state enterprises, with troubling social ramifications and protests to follow. How the regime will respond to all this is quite unpredictable."
INDIA: "Doing Business With Beijing"
The centrist Times of India carried this analysis by economist Sanjaya Baru (5/30): "Clearly, China's imminent entry into WTO marks its arrival on the world stage as a major trading power.... It is important to note that China has not been offered WTO membership on a platter. It has literally bought that membership with tempting offers of market access which open up the Chinese market to foreign traders and investors.... Of course, the United States has already given a lot to China in terms of market access and this is in evidence at any shop anywhere in America.
"The Chinese have literally sold their way into American homes and locked this nation up into a relationship of dependence which the United States will find very difficult to delink from.... The Chinese worker in the export processing zones of coastal China today subsidizes the quality of life of the average American. The low rate of inflation which U.S. voters associate with President Clinton's eight years in office is in no small measure due to the willingness of Chinese workers to produce low cost-high quality goods that U.S. supermarkets want to store....
"Surprisingly, there has been very little debate in India on the terms on which we have given our assent to China's admission into the WTO.... India was well advised to support China membership in the WTO because China will now be subject to the discipline of the WTO and to its dispute settlement mechanism. China is willing to make such bold commitments, not only because it feels more confident about trading with the outside world but also because it has come to view trade as an instrument of national security, having locked the world's most powerful nation into a relationship of mutual advantage which neither wants to break. The U.S.-China economic relationship has already imposed limits on the United States' ability to 'discipline' [China.] Regrettably, debates on economic liberalization and external trade and investment policy in India still continue to echo the old Chinese 'Middle Kingdom' view of trade and security, seeking comfort in inward-orientation. There isn't an adequate appreciation of the new thinking, which views economic engagement with the outside world, rather than isolation, as a means of enhancing national security."
BANGLADESH: "Most Important Event In Clinton's Presidency"
Readers of the independent, English-language Daily Star saw this editorial page article (5/28): "The U.S. House of Representatives' May 24 approval of PNTR for China may perhaps be seen by history as the single most important event President Bill Clinton achieved in office. Some political observers compare it to the historic visit of President Nixon to China in 1972.... The granting of PNTR status is a step forward on the way to normalization of trade relations with China.... The vote demonstrates that the American people can rely on the their elected representatives to do the right thing at the right moment, no matter how frustrating the system often seems to the electorate and outsiders."
"China And WTO"
The centrist, English-language Independent maintained (5/28): "The Americans, as well as the Europeans, are divided over whether to cheer or to fear China's market opening to global trade. The labor unions in Europe, already plagued with a high rate of unemployment in the EU, worry that European companies will close factories at home and switch production to China to exploit its cheaper workforce. The Congressional lobby of organized labor in the United States also hotly contested the China trade bill, deeply apprehensive that, despite market-flooding protection guaranteed by provisions in the Sino-U.S. trade agreement and in WTO rules, China trade will adversely affect domestic employment in the United States.... For the developing world, the best part of China's participation in global trade under the WTO umbrella means that the prospects for lasting world peace are much better secured."
CANADA: "China And WTO"
Editorialist Frédéric Wagnière observed in Montreal's centrist La Presse (5/26): "The U.S. House of Representatives finally opted for rapprochement...and rejected the sanctimonious isolationist approach. The WTO tends to bring countries closer together, something the UN cannot achieve....
"The time has come for China to abide by the rules of international trade and to benefit from its advantages. No longer will it be able to wage unfair competition or intellectual piracy, but neither will it be possible to exclude China from some markets for political reasons.... This will make it possible for China to discuss economic questions with Taiwan without feeling compelled to broach insolvable political problems. Indeed Taiwan hopes to establish direct ties between the two countries, so as to facilitate the heavy trading already being conducted through Hong Kong.... Finally, China's newfound commercial security will provide an opportunity to tackle the huge problems that accompanied rapid industrialization.... If China wants to create the climate of confidence which should accompany its acceptance into the WTO, it will have to openly take care of these problems, and it is this openness which should open the way to democracy."
"China's Next 'Great Leap' Beckons"
Foreign affairs columnist Gordon Barthos observed in the liberal Toronto Star (5/26): "Late convert though he was, Clinton's drive to have Congress grant Beijing permanent normal trade relations and to support China's entry to the WTO reflects that conviction. The sheer pressure of freer trade will help Jiang and Zhu face down entrenched Communist party bureaucrats and regional bosses who resist grassroots democratization, the closing of bankrupt state firms and the phasing out of state housing. China's notoriously corrupt judges will also be under more pressure to render transparent judgments and to enforce international legal standards, instead of favouring those with the right connections.... Does this mean Beijing will suddenly discover the joys of multi-party democracy, cozy relations with the United States and Taiwan, and respect for human rights? Don't bet the farm on it.... Beijing is likely to be a prickly partner for years to come. But China's reformers have just seen their risky 'opening up' to the rest of the world bear some fruit. That's important, as China's power grows."
"Now Free China"
The conservative National Post judged (5/26): "WTO membership cannot solve China's many ills; human rights abuses and security concerns aren't about to disappear. Still, the beneficial effects of freer trade with China should not be underestimated. These trade deals...are indeed of historic import.... Global trading systems will be strengthened by integrating China's relatively closed market into the international community and liberalizing its economy. Had Western governments' failed to open China to international commerce it would have been a setback for all trading nations. But what about our two other strategic pillars, freedom and security? China's reformers are realists who understand their country can only advance with a sound economy. They are not democrats, committed to basic freedoms. Sooner or later the Chinese government will again arrest religious leaders, academics or democracy activists. They will turn up the heat on democratic Taiwan, perhaps to the point of military action; they will sell missile technology to the Middle East. Our commitment to open trade must not rule out strengthening our policies to deal effectively with China in these areas.... China wants to be a major player in the international community. Fine, but it must earn that position, and it is up to...Western governments to see that it does."
BRAZIL: "An Agreement Of Giants"
Center-right O Estado de Sao Paulo opined (5/29): "For (Brazil), the opening of China to foreign investment is a reason to worry. In recent years, Brazil has been an important pole for foreign investment. Among the emerging economies, only China has attracted greater resources and its advantage could increase. This is another strong reason for Brazil to hurry up with its reforms and take care of its commercial competitiveness."
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