April 4, 2000
CHINA: MONITORING POST-ELECTION TAIWAN; 'HOPES FADE' ON WTO
Taiwan, WTO negotiations and human rights topped the agenda of China-watchers overseas as they continued to monitor Beijing's reaction in the aftermath of Chen-Shui-bian's victory in Taiwan's presidential election last month. In contrast to reaction immediately following Chen's win (see Issue Focus of 3/21)--when worriers feared that China might use military force against Taiwan--foreign observers were somewhat relieved by Beijing's perceived "wait-and-see" attitude vis-a-vis President-elect Chen. Writers, however, overwhelmingly agreed that, given Mr. Chen's offer to hold talks with the mainland, China and Taiwan "must talk" and judged that the U.S. could play a major role in bringing the two sides together. A few dissenters, however, saw cross-Strait tensions "building relentlessly," and speculated that Beijing was only "keeping a low profile" until "after China's accession to the WTO," or that Mr. Chen would face opposition from within his own party if he retained his more conciliatory posture toward the PRC. On WTO, hopes were dim that Beijing would secure entry into the world body this year, given the "breakdown" of recent talks in Beijing between China and the EU. The "impasse" between Europe and China was also seen as a defeat for the U.S. strategy of "rapprochement," which, said Rome's classical liberal Il Foglio, would "not get the results that were hoped for." Outside of Beijing, the U.S.' efforts to press for a resolution at the UN Human Rights Commission condemning China's human rights record received scant comment. Official Chinese media, however, predictably excoriated the move as giving a "distorted picture" of China's "human rights situation." Following are additional themes in the commentary:
TAIWAN: POST-ELECTION VIEWS -- Media voices in Taipei expressed a range of opinion. The liberal, pro-independence Liberty Times came the closest to advocating independence, urging Mr. Chen's party, the DPP, to build communication with Beijing "on an equal footing," while "safeguard[ing] Taiwan's independent sovereignty." The centrist, pro-status quo China Times expressed the need for the new government to "act very carefully" so as not to alienate either Beijing or the U.S. Conservative, pro-unification dailies welcomed the visit to Taiwan by former Congressman Lee Hamilton, and saw negotiations between Taiwan and Beijing as key to preventing a "possible military confrontation" across the Taiwan Strait.
CHINA-EU-WTO: '48 HOURS OF USELESS NEGOTIATIONS' -- While available commentary from Beijing's official media was silent on the China-EU trade talks, observers in Hong Kong and Europe saw China's "final sprint to the WTO finish line" as having slowed to a "snail's" pace. Noting that no new talks between the EU and China had yet been scheduled, these writers saw little chance that Beijing would accede to the WTO this year, "no matter what the U.S. does." Most deemed that the EU-China "impasse" would make it more difficult for President Clinton to secure support for the U.S.-negotiated trade agreement with China.
EDITOR: Kathleen J. Brahney
EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 54 reports from 25 countries. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC
TAIWAN: "Cross-Strait Relations, Pragmatic Diplomacy Should Get Equal Attention"
An editorial in the liberal, pro-independence Liberty Times predicted (3/27): "Beijing will not moderate its saber-rattling against Taiwan just because of the change of Taiwan's political situation. The 'one China' principle still remains Beijing's core policy in dealing with Taiwan, so the DPP should not compromise itself or even unilaterally appease China. The top priority for both sides of the Taiwan Strait now is to build a stable and peaceful communication channel, but the channel must be built on an equal footing and on the basis of dignity, pragmatism and mutual interest. The DPP's primary position is to safeguard Taiwan's independent sovereignty. When it becomes the ruling party, it has the responsibility to push for peaceful dialogue across the Taiwan Strait. However, this does not mean that it could lose its position or compromise itself."
"Beijing Needs Time To Observe Chen"
Wang Yu-yen judged in the conservative, pro-unification United Daily News (3/26): "Leaders in Beijing do not want to resolve the Taiwan issue with force at the current stage. But no Chinese leader could afford to take the blame if Taiwan really moves toward independence. Therefore, Beijing has decided to give itself and Taiwan some time to watch Chen's moves so that both sides might have a chance to resume dialogue again."
"Hamilton Visit Good For U.S.-Taiwan Confidence Building"
Tang Shih observed in the liberal, pro-independence Taiwan Daily (3/25): "The content of their talks [i.e. between U.S. envoy Lee Hamilton and Taiwan President-elect Chen Shui-bian] was not open to the public. However, from Hamilton's departure statement, which calls their discussions productive, it seems that at least the envoy has obtained Chen's initial commitment regarding U.S. interests and that the U.S. administration would be happy to expand its communication with the DPP and Chen's government. This not only is Chen's first successful diplomatic performance [after the election], it may also have won him a warrant for his rule in the next four years."
"New Government Should Strengthen Mutual Trust With U.S."
Hsu Hsiao-tsu wrote in the centrist/pro-status quo China Times (3/24): "In the future, not only Beijing will listen to Chen's words and watch his moves, but also the United States, which has no intention of getting involved in cross-Strait disputes, will adopt the same attitude.... The new government will have to act very carefully if Taiwan wants the United States to believe that we are not a troublemaker but a peace promoter."
"Visit By U.S. Envoys Significant"
The conservative/pro-unification, English-language China Post held (3/24): "By sending envoys to talk with mainland leaders and Taiwan's new president respectively, Washington wanted the two sides to take steps to ease their renewed tensions and reopen dialogue.... We in Taiwan welcome the visit by Hamilton...and appreciate Washington's efforts to reduce the hostilities of the two sides and encourage them to the negotiating table, thereby to prevent a possible military conflict across the Taiwan Strait."
"Beijing Reacts Indifferently To Chen's New Policy Thus Far"
The centrist, pro-status quo China Times asserted (3/23): "Beijing is still watching Taiwan's situation and how it will develop in the near future. The words 'listen to Chen's words and watch his moves' very precisely reflect Beijing's current position. But how long will Beijing watch Chen? Most people believe that Chen Shui-bian's inauguration speech will serve as an indicator. Also, people in Beijing unanimously believe that Beijing hopes to see nothing from Taiwan but Taiwan's upholding the one China principle.... On the other hand, [Beijing officials] are...concerned about the United States' attitude. Beijing is facing more pressure [from Washington] with regard to how it should handle the Taiwan issue, especially since the United States will hold a presidential election this year. Even Chinese President Jiang Zemin told visiting U.S. Ambassador Richard Holbrooke that he was worried that some people in Washington would attempt to link the U.S. presidential election to Washington-Beijing ties."
CHINA: "Alarm From U.S. Press"
Official Communist Party People's Daily (Renmin Ribao, 4/4) intoned: "As the only superpower in the world today, the United States has a particular bearing on world peace and development. Only when it treats others equally can the United States win friends."
"Facts Speak Louder Than Rhetoric"
The official, English-language China Daily charged (4/1): "Why does the United States always turn a blind eye to what is really going on in China and other developing countries and continue to present a distorted picture of its human rights situation? Chinese Ambassador to the UN Human Rights Commission Qiao Zonghuai attributed the continuous, groundless accusation of the United States against the developing world to three reasons: the haunting Cold War mentality and hegemonist mindset, double standards and the politicization of human rights."
"Nation Opposes Chen's Visit To Any Country"
The official, English-language China Daily ran this piece (3/29): "Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi said, 'China opposes any country that invites Chen Shui-bian for any kind of visit.' In response to the U.S. attempt to attack China at the...UN Human Rights Commission conference, Sun said the United States should seriously review its own bad aspects on human rights rather than attack any other country. Such an attempt clearly shows that the United States uses double standards on the human rights issue.... The United States was responsible for stalling the dialogue on human rights between China and the United States."
"'One China' And American Interests"
Official Beijing municipal Beijing Daily (Beijing Ribao, 3/25) judged: "The one China policy confirms U.S. interests.... In fact, while supporting splittist forces in other countries, some American politicians have never tried to split their own country, because they know very well how much damage doing so would do to their own country."
"He Who Is Unjust Is Doomed To Destruction"
Official Communist Party People's Daily (Renmin Ribao, 3/25) declared: "Lee Teng-hui's step down shows that whoever advocates 'Taiwan independence' will come to no good.... Those who are still trying to conceal their 'Taiwan independence' stancewith sweet words...and who are determined not to accept the one-China principle in an attempt to split Taiwan from China, should draw a lesson from the disgraceful downfall of Lee Teng-hui."
"Timetable' For Taiwan Issue"
The official, English-language China Daily stated (3/24): "'Besides the people of Taiwan, the United States, Taiwan's long-term protector, also opposes Chen's pro-independence position.... The United States wants to keep a political balance in this region.... It will dissuade Taiwan from going too far, although it will certainly interfere if China resorts to force to take Taiwan on its declaration of independence,' said Li Yuhu, professor at the School of International Relations of Beijing University. 'China will not fear U.S. interference if Taiwan does anything dangerous, and will resolutely take action, including using force, to smash Taiwan splittism,' said Li."
HONG KONG: "Fading Hopes"
The independent South China Morning Post's editorial remarked (4/1): "The chances are mounting that the U.S. Congress will not pass a bill giving Beijing normal trading relations in the American market, even though the formidable Mr. Ventura warns politicians: 'Don't blow it.' In the meantime, negotiations have ended badly between China and the European Union about World Trade Organization entry, with no new talks scheduled. Unless China can strike a deal with Europe, it may not be able to join the WTO, no matter what the United States does.... None of this need happen. The U.S. debate involves much political posturing, and enough pro-trade votes may be found in the end. The EU talks could resume soon and, with a few concessions here and there, come to a successful end. But unless appearances are deceiving, the outlook is getting a bit grim."
"Failure To Clinch European Deal Delivers WTO Blow"
The independent Hong Kong Standard underscored (4/1): "China's agreements with the United States and the EU will have mutual repercussions. Yesterday's failure to strike a deal with the EU could bolster opposition to the mainland's bid in the U.S. Congress."
"Military Pressure Builds Over Taiwan"
Willy Wo-lap Lam argued in the independent South China Morning Post (3/29): "Despite the grace period Beijing has apparently given Taiwan President-elect Chen Shui-bian, the tension is building relentlessly.... Analysts in Beijing agree that the Jiang administration will adopt a relatively low profile at least until after China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Premature saber-rattling will jeopardize the passage in the American Congress of legislation on China's permanent normal trading relations status.... To avoid giving a pretext for American intervention, the favorite 'war plan' does not involve the People's Liberation Army's physical occupation of Taiwan territory.... With Taiwan, however, the cadres and generals made the point that the prosperous, comfort-loving Taiwanese would immediately transmit their assets overseas and...hoist the white flag after PLA missiles had knocked out the power and water supply."
"U.S. Should Not Allow Chen Shui-bian's Visit"
Pro-PRC Wen Wei Po intoned (3/24): "It is reported that Chen Shui-bian is preparing to visit the United States and Japan. U.S. right-wing politicians are whipping up opinion to arrange for Chen Shui-bian's U.S. visit. The date of the visit will be before May 20. If the U.S. administration issues Chen Shui-bian a visa, it would mean that the United States would be deliberately creating 'two Chinas' or 'one China one Taiwan.' It would violate the joint communiques between the United States and China and impair U.S.-China relations.... The anti-China forces in the U.S. Congress want Chen to visit the United States. Their objective is to create troubles for the Clinton administration and to catch the United States in the whirlpool."
"Taiwan Issue Critical To Sino-U.S. Relations"
Pro-PRC Ta Kung Pao stressed (3/24): "If the United States does not recognize the importance and sensitivity of the Taiwan issue and deal with it carefully, it may hurt itself eventually. It is known to all that if the 'Taiwan independence' forces advocate splittism brazenly, China will be forced to adopt military measures to settle the Taiwan issue. By that time, if the United States intervenes in the conflict, the United States will have to be ready to pay a high price."
"U.S. Should Not Add Fuel To Cross-Strait Fire"
The independent Hong Kong Economic Times maintained (3/24): "It would not be in the interest of the United States to support Chen Shui-bian if he advocates Taiwan independence because Taiwan independence is equal to war in the Taiwan Strait.... To ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. administration should give Chen Shui-bian a clear message about its anti-Taiwan independence stance.... China is still observing Chen Shui-bian. It has not established a new direction for its Taiwan policy. If Chen Shui-bian visits the United States at this sensitive moment, no matter what his status is, it will damage the friendly image he showed to China in the past few days. And the situation in the Taiwan Strait will worsen quickly."
"Confusion Reigns As Taiwan Calls Beijing's Bluff"
Charles Snyder judged in the independent Hong Kong Standard (3/24): "The people of Taiwan, by calling Beijing's bluff and confounding Washington's expectations, have put themselves in an unusual position of strength. What compounds the confusion, moreover, is that the people of Taiwan may not realize what they have done."
"Victory For Reason"
The independent South China Morning Post's editorial judged (3/22): "The prevailing mood [is] anything but bellicose. Upon reflection, leaders on both sides seem driven by a desire to prolong an ambiguous status quo, rather than push for quick decisions about their long-term relationship. The fears and threats which dominated the run-up to the Taiwan vote are being dismissed. If that holds, it will be a victory for political wisdom and economic common sense. Confrontation would cost China dearly in the United States, notably on global trade issues and military suppliers to Taiwan. Both sides of the strait would suffer in financial and investment terms. And nothing important would be resolved."
"Political Gulf Widening By The Day"
Willy Wo-lap Lam commented in the independent South China Morning Post (3/22): "President Jiang is faced with a cruel dilemma. The chances of a democratized, increasingly native Taiwanese island responding to Beijing's reunification overture are extremely low. And the risks of war are still too high to make that a viable option."
"Abide By 'One China' Principle, Testing Sino-U.S. Relations"
Pro-PRC Hong Kong Commercial Daily News averred (3/22): "The Taiwan issue is the internal affair of China. Safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity and realizing the unification of China are the wish and sacred mission of all Chinese people.... The United States should abide by the one China policy, the three joint communique's as well as the 'three nos' pledge. Only in this way can Sino-U.S. relations be improved and further developed. It will also be helpful in settling the Taiwan issues."
"Taiwan Can, Why Can't Hong Kong?"
The independent Apple Daily News pointed out (3/22): " After the Taiwan election, a newspaper interviewed some Hong Kong people to learn their opinions. Among the interviewees, many of them raised the question, 'Taiwan can exercise universal suffrage for its presidential election, why can't our chief executive be elected?'... If the situation does not change, Hong Kong as 'an example' for Taiwan should not be mentioned again. Otherwise, it is only a joke and no one will believe it."
AUSTRALIA: "China, Taiwan Must Talk"
Paul Kelly, international editor for Sydney's national, conservative Australian, maintained (3/22): "While China and the United States have a vast economic relationship, many U.S. politicians still see China as a threat. This is not the situation in Australia, where the aim is for a broader partnership with China. The U.S. Congress has passed laws to assist Taiwan and establish Taiwan as a U.S. ally. Australia, by contrast, has no such commitment. The United States, as the only superpower, has the luxury of deciding the terms on which it deals with China. Australia does not have the same luxury.... But despite these different perceptions, Australia and the United States have a common purpose--to see a deal done without China's resort to force."
PHILIPPINES: "The China Mystery"
University of the Philippines professor Ben Lim observed in the independent Philippine Post (3/31): "Considering [China's] vast population and limited natural resources, over a hundred years of exploitation and imposition of unequal treaties by foreign powers, Westerners cannot deny that China has achieved a socio-economic miracle. China's mystery, such as it is, is that it has survived political and economic adversities within and without, and is as stable and as prosperous as it had been during the Ming and Tang dynasties. There must be some virtue in the Chinese system after all."
"Outfoxing Beijing"
Veteran journalist and publisher Max Soliven concluded in the conservative Philippine Star (3/31): "Taiwan's newly elected president...outfoxed his political foes and detractors by doing the unexpected--and unorthodox.... Chen Shui-bian...consolidated his shaky rule by appointing a Koumintang stalwart, Defense Minister Tang Fei, as his premier in the coming Cabinet. He thus stole a march on his detractors and won the sympathy of the powerful military."
"Closely Watching Chen's Tightrope Act"
The independent, conservative Philippine Star's editlrial remarked (3/29): "After winning by a narrow margin, [Chen Shui-bian] has tried to tone down his pro-independence rhetoric.... Beijing appears to have been mollified.... But...having won on a platform of independence, Chen cannot afford to abandon his views and alienate his supporters. But neither can Taiwan afford a direct confrontation with China. The Philippines and the rest of the region, which will be affected by conflict in the Taiwan Strait, are watching closely as Chen walks a tightrope."
SINGAPORE: "U.S. Forced To Rethink Balancing Act On Taiwan"
Leon Hadar wrote in the pro-government Business Times (3/24): "Are President Clinton and his aides ready to move toward a re-evaluation of 'strategic ambiguity?'
"Creative diplomacy on the part of Washington could have encouraged Beijing and Taiwan to consider new ideas that would allow it to maintain the 'one China' policy by taking steps to expand trade and investment ties between the two entities, creating perhaps a Greater China free-market union as the first stage towards unification.... But the politically lame-duck President Clinton is not about to launch new diplomatic initiatives. His main goal now is to lobby Congress to grant China a permanent normal trade relationship (NTR) status and get Beijing to join the World Trade Organization. He is hoping that Beijing and Taipei will help him win this political victory by maintaining the current status quo for the next nine months, leaving it for the next U.S. president to work on finding new unambiguous strategic mechanisms to secure that status quo for many more years."
SOUTH KOREA: "An Opportunity For Cross-Strait Ties"
Senior columnist Kim Young-hee observed in independent Joong-Ang Ilbo (3/22): "China...has largely ended up boxing itself into a corner as a result of misreading the lessons from the 1996 incident and also from misunderstanding the power of democratic progress in Taiwan.. While many are heavily predicting a crisis in the Taiwan Strait as a result of Chen Shui-bian's election, a crisis always offers an opportunity as well. President-elect Chen is already retreating from his pro-independence position, and has even promised not to declare independence as long as China does not use force. In addition, he has offered a dialogue with the Chinese leadership.... Down the road, many factors will appear to determine the outcome of the debate [over Taiwan.] Whether the hard-liners, led by President Jiang, or Prime Minister Zhu's moderates win the stage in China will surely be one of those factors. Taiwan's investments in China and trade through Hong Kong are Zhu's powerful pawns."
THAILAND: "Chen Hands China A Golden Opportunity"
The lead editorial of the independent, English-language Nation judged (3/23): "For its own sake, Beijing needs to adopt a less static posture and be more reconciliatory toward Taiwan. Only through reasonable and continuous dialogue can they advance peace and prosperity, which could eventually lead to reunification. But if China continues to scream the language of war, it will have to fight against global sentiment. That is something China will find it hard to defeat."
EUROPE
BRITAIN: "Taiwan's China Dare"
The independent weekly Economist featured this lead editorial (3/24): "This was meant to be the Pacific century, yet how suddenly the language of commerce in the world's fastest-growing region can give way to talk of war. Will China now make good its threat (of force)? Its leaders, stunned, say they will watch what Mr. Chen does and listen to what he says. And if China does not like what it sees and hears? Make no mistake, an exchange of shots across the Taiwan Strait would not simply be a small skirmish in a 50-year Chinese civil war. A clash between East Asia's second-largest economy and its fourth-largest would do huge collateral damage, not least to financial and trading interests the world over. It would draw in America, which is committed to help Taiwan if it is attacked. Others, from Japan to Europe, who value their security ties to America and profit from the stability these bring could not afford to turn aside either. But high stakes can bring opportunities, as well as dangers. Both sides insist they would prefer peace to war, yet there is a real risk of stumbling into a conflict by misreading each other's signals. That is where America can help, since it talks to both and wants to see tempers cool....
"Indeed, just as America must make it clear to China that force will not be tolerated, so it must go on making it clear to Taiwan that it cannot deliberately provoke China and then expect to have others defend it. The only solution remains for the two to decide together, through negotiation, whether they are to be one China or two. But as Taiwan changes and China grows ever more inflexible, that becomes more difficult. Even if a crisis is averted this time, be prepared for the next one."
FRANCE: "WTO--No Agreement Between Beijing And Brussels"
Michel de Grandi filed from Beijing in right-of-center Les Echos (4/3): "The third round of negotiations between the EU and China for its accession to WTO ended in another failure.... European Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy returned to Brussels empty-handed.... An agreement with the EU would have been another asset for Bill Clinton, who committed himself to get the vote from Congress on the subject. The battle may be extremely difficult."
"Forty-Eight Hours Of Useless Negotiations"
Pascal Aubert told readers of centrist La Tribune (3/30): "China's final sprint to the WTO finish line is turning into a snail's race. After 48 hours of useless negotiations in Beijing, the frustration of the EU negotiating team is obvious.... The EU negotiators have threatened to leave the table. Of all possible methods to move the Chinese team, that is undoubtedly the worst. Europe has neither the weight nor the power of the United States in international negotiations. China is not Japan, which is known for giving in under pressure."
"Albright Against China"
Laurent Mossu pointed out in right-of-center Le Figaro (3/23): "Madeleine Albright is expected today in Geneva to try to obtain China's condemnation before the UN Human Rights Commission.... But this is far from certain. China has called developing nations to its rescue to fight against the West's 'intervention.' This is the first time that a U.S. secretary of state will be taking part in the debate. Her presence is also tied to domestic policy and Congress's attitude to China and the WTO.... The success of the U.S. offensive will depend highly on the EU's position.... While the EU has hardened its position since last year, it will make its position known only at the time of the voting."
GERMANY: "Lamy's Passive China Strategy"
Business Financial Times Deutschland of Hamburg emphasized (3/30): "Even before the start of negotiations, the EU had announced that the existing Chinese-American treaty fulfilled 80 percent of European wishes. EU Trade Commissioner, Pascal Lamy, had quickly announced his visit to Beijing after the last failed round of talks in February. The EU's passive negotiation strategy could come back to haunt them: It looks as if attractive Chinese service industry markets will remain closed to Europeans for now. Lamy will hardly be able to negotiate new licenses for life insurance companies--an area in which the United States already ensured an advantageous position for itself in November 1999--or better market access for banks. In this way, Europeans are losing out to American companies in the telecommunications sector and in the area of financial services."
ITALY: "Washington Between Brussels And Beijing"
Provocative, classical liberal Il Foglio told its readers (4/1): "The impasse between Europe and China means that Beijing will not join the WTO this year. Which is a tough blow for Bill Clinton as well.
"The U.S. strategy of rapprochement toward China--criticized by several members of Congress given China's human rights violations and threatening military policy toward Southeast Asia--will not give the results that were hoped for... Washington is [also] paying for its lukewarm relations with traditional allies such as Japan and Taiwan, which were caused by America's complacency, albeit amid contradictions, toward the Chinese.... The Europeans are disturbed by Washington's lack of understanding for the needs of other countries for international liberalization and by Clinton's--and his cabinet's--tendency to deal with economic and political themes unilaterally.... While having its own good reasons, however, Europe should now avoid siding with the wrong party.... China cannot be isolated. We should convince it to make additional openings, by exerting pressure on its most modern circles, and not adopt rigid policies that will push Beijing toward a closed attitude."
"China Ups The Ante"
Rome's centrist Il Messaggero argued (3/22): "The unexpected outcome of the elections in Taiwan has immediately raised the temperature in the region and provoked a kind of siege mentality in Beijing, with the consequent stiffening on other issues which link it to the international community, beginning with human rights. Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan met with American Ambassador Holbrooke and told him that his government would never accept any pressure from Washington...on its policy toward the dissidents.... And Chinese President Jiang Zemin added to Holbrooke that Chen's election 'does not change the fact that the island is part of Chinese territory.' Jiang also warned Washington not to interfere in this case."
RUSSIA: "Chen Committed To Independence"
Vasily Mikhailov remarked in reformist, business-oriented Kommersant (3/30): "The president-elect's choice of the current defense minister as Taiwan's next prime minister shows that Chen Shui-bian, for all his peaceful declarations, remains committed to the cause of full independence. It is also his response to his critics who believe that uninitiated in military matters, he may provoke an armed conflict with China."
"Time For Chen To Face Reality"
Dmitry Kosyrev mused in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (3/23): "Anyone placing himself at the helm in Taiwan will have to face reality. There is no getting away from it. Chen Shui- bian began to ease off even in the course of his election campaign. Now his party is going to drop the idea of an independence referendum from its program. In fact, the Democratic Opposition Party will become more like the defeated Kuomintang on that issue. Maybe it will have to change its name, too. Evidently, its founding fathers did not seriously consider coming to power when they called their party the 'opposition.'"
POLAND: "Chinese Roulette"
Andrzej Jonas noted in military weekly Polska Zbrojna (3/24): "Even if Chen Shui-bian becomes more moderate...the crucial cards in the game are still the same in Washington."
SPAIN: "Taiwan Extends Its Hand"
Center-left El Pais told its readers (3/23): "Taiwanese President-elect Chen Shui-bian has radically moderated his pro-independence campaign rhetoric...but it seems obvious that he will not allow China to ram down his throat its 'one country, two systems' formula, as represented by the reintegration of Hong Kong and Macao, but just rejected by 15 million voters on the island....
"Keeping the peace will require large doses of responsibility and pragmatism on both sides.... For their part, the Western powers, and especially the United States, which consider Taiwan a democracy, should remain tenacious in their attempts at making the Chinese leaders understand that their objective of reunification will not be achieved by military means."
TURKEY: "China And Taiwan"
Izzet Sedes contended in mass-appeal Aksam (3/24): "With Chen Shui-bian's...victory in Taiwan's elections, one can no longer use the rhetoric that there is 'one China.'... But this approach is unacceptable to Beijing...and it looks like Chen will have difficult times with China.... It is certain Beijing will continue its war of nerves with Taiwan."
SOUTH ASIA
NEPAL: "'One China' Policy"
M.R. Josse penned this analysis in government-owned Rising Nepal (3/29): "World leaders have urged Taiwan to settle differences with Beijing by opening talks. It is particularly significant that President Clinton, even after hailing Chen's victory, gave not the slightest hint that he was moving away from adherence to Beijing's 'one China' policy."
"Taiwan Votes"
Government-owned Gorkhapatra indicated (3/25): "[Chen] has expressed his willingness to visit China if necessary.... Both China and Taiwan want to talk, but the difficulty lies in Beijing's 'One China' policy.... China wants to talk only that term."
WESTERN HEMISPHERE
CANADA: "Don't Look For Fireworks Over Taiwan"
Columnist Richard Gwyn observed in the liberal Toronto Star (3/22): "On the one side, there's no chance whatever that Taiwan will declare independence or move significantly in that direction. If it did, the United States, which accepts the 'one China' solution, would be relieved of its moral commitment to defend Taiwan. On the other side, there's no chance whatever that China will attempt to invade Taiwan. If it did, it would experience a humiliating military failure.... Worse--for Beijing--after successfully defeating an invasion attempt, Taiwan would declare itself independent and would do so with the diplomatic support of much of the world.... The high probability, though, is that both sides will continue with the ambiguity they've maintained for a half-century now, with Taiwan neither joining China nor leaving it--and with no shots being fired."
"Drip. Drip. Drip"
The liberal Ottawa Citizen pointed out (3/22): "The psychological principle behind water torture is well-known.... We may now be seeing this principle at work, with mainland China on the receiving end.... China's dictators cannot help but understand the implications of the democratic transference of power in Taiwan. And they can be certain that the Chinese people on the mainland will also understand. If the Taiwanese can turf out one set of rulers, why can't they? Drip-drop. Drip-drop."
"Chinese Bullying"
The left-of-center Winnipeg Free Press urged (3/21): "Western democracies should encourage China to learn from the Taiwanese about the political and material advantages of a free society and a market economy. The Beijing authorities often cite the case of the former Soviet Union to prove that relaxation of one-party rule and state control will lead to chaos. The example of Taiwan shows that a poor dictatorship can develop into a wealthy democracy--even in the presence of a hostile and bullying neighbour. The Chinese communists should try it. They might like it."
ARGENTINA: "Chinese Leader Insists On Taiwan's Reunification"
Daniel Almeida, on special assignment in Beijing for leading Clarin, stressed (3/21): "In a new gesture of friendship toward Beijing in less than 48 hours, Chen proposed yesterday to hold a 'peace summit' with Chinese authorities to discuss all issues, even the 'one China' topic. The words of the new Taiwanese president, who will take over on May 20, were interpreted as a new concession in his pro-independence position.... Local experts on this issue have observed that an easing of tension on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will greatly depend on Beijing's flexibility regarding the 'one China' principle. In past contacts, both sides accepted this principle, but each one had a different interpretation of its meaning."
BRAZIL: "Periodic Threats Of Force Against Taiwan"
Center-right O Estado de Sao Paulo offered this view (3/30): "Beijing's threat to absorb Taiwan by force has been so ritually repeated for the last 50 years...that few people are impressed with these initiatives. One current of political thought sustains the thesis that, sooner or later, Taiwan will seek to maintain its institutional system by returning to the mother country. What has to be excluded is the idea that Taiwan could be reintegrated to mainland China by military operations.... Beijing lacks the naval force to venture into crossing the so-called Formosa Strait, patrolled by the United States Navy."
CHILE: "Taiwan And China"
Conservative, influential, newspaper-of-record El Mercurio averred (3/27): "The recent election in Taiwan...is terrifying for China's Communist leadership. The chances of losing control over an increasingly modern China, a more efficient one in which its citizens have the rights of a free society, socially fragmented between those who have made it and those who haven't in the new capitalist economy, could push the politburo to take violent and unpredictable action against its small neighbor.... Both Taipei and Beijing must realize that the election has fundamentally changed Taiwan's internal and external scenario, and that the situation has become more unstable and dangerous than before."
MEXICO: "Time For Dialogue"
Alberto Cravioto predicted in nationalist, independent El Universal (4/2): "After getting Hong Kong back, the Chinese leadership's next goal is Taiwan. The recently elected Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has not made any inflammatory speeches about the island's nationalistic and independent goals, but has called on the Chinese government to engage in dialogue with Taiwan.... It is now up to the Chinese government to adopt a similarly prudent attitude, although it will be difficult for it to do just that.... Whether China gets Taiwan back through force or via the negotiating table, international public opinion should remind China that it should also negotiate how to free the Tibetan territory it has occupied since 1950...even though...the West has supported Taiwan, while it has ignored the situation in the Tibet."
PANAMA: "Elections In Taiwan"
Sensationalist tabloid El Siglo's Tomas Cabal concluded (3/31): "Chen Shui-bian...will have to moderate his position to avoid a military confrontation with its (Taiwan's) communist neighbor, but we believe that he represents the true feelings of the Taiwanese people.... It would not be surprising if military forces in Beijing try to occupy...some of the smaller islands under Taiwanese control.... This would have a negative effect on the island's financial markets and would help confirm continental China's position that Taiwan belongs to them."
PERU: "Relief"
Respected El Comercio maintained (3/21): "One can feel relief from the signals of moderation shown by China after Chen Shui-bian's victory in Taiwan's presidential election. Obviously, China must be changing its strategy. Despite his support of independence, Chen has shown a willingness to travel to Beijing or to invite communist officials to visit Taipei to sign a peace treaty or political accord. Besides the geopolitical repercussions, which should be solved peacefully through dialogue, the Taiwan election shows a democratic revitalization. The first change in power in 50 years is taking place in the context of Chen's pledge of transparency and ending corruption."
URUGUAY: "Between Freedom And Despotism"
Leading, conservative El Pais concluded (3/29): "The electoral victory of Chen Shui-bian clearly reveals that the island is heading toward democracy. This implies a serious problem for the government of China which, not very long ago, absorbed Hong Kong and Macao and was hoping to reach a similar status with the prosperous island. In the year 2000, Communist China is facing a new reality which is leading them to threaten Taiwan with a military intervention of unpredictable consequences. It is well known that the United States would like China to be a peaceful commercial power within the global world. However, it can also be a military power and might feel tempted to bare its claws. What is terrible is that these claws are at the service of totalitarianism and prepared to eliminate a democracy. Once again then, the world is witnessing a conflict between freedom and despotism."
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