Washington, Aug. 29 (CNA) Since mainland China continues to link its arms exports to other sensitive issues such as US military sales to Taiwan, US concerns about specific sales will likely be a periodic source of tension in relations between Washington and Beijing, according to two American experts in East Asian affairs.
Bates Gill, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, and Evan S. Medeiros, a senior research associate with the East Asia Project at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, made the prediction in a co-authored report on mainland Chinese arms exports.
The two experts said that despite the declining volume of mainland Chinese arms exports and its shrinking market share in the international arms market, Beijing's arms exports will continue to be an issue of concern for US policymakers and analysts.
To be sure, they said, Beijing has made various pledges to halt exports of missiles and related technologies to South Asia and the Middle East. But two analysts put little faith in such rhetoric. "China's current commitments are mostly bilateral, political promises made in the context of US-China bargaining; they do not appear to be rock-solid and unequivocal."
Thus, a major downturn in PRC-US relations could lead Beijing to overturn commitments and enter upon a new round of arms exports, they added.
The experts said such a scenario is not unlikely, given the range of Beijing-Washington differences -- especially over security issues like Taiwan. "China continues to link its restraint in arms exports to diminishing US arms sales to Taiwan, and China could use its arms exports to particular countries (such as Iran) as leverage in bilateral debates over Taiwan-related issues," they said.
Indeed, the PRC's vehement opposition to current US proposals to provide Theater Missile Defense technology to East Asian partners, especially to Taiwan, "could trigger a new round of arms exports from Beijing," they wrote. They added that PRC officials have already indicated that they consider TMD sales to Taiwan to be a form of missile proliferation, which may lead Beijing to reconsider its existing missile nonproliferation commitments.
The experts noted that further complicating these issues are the ambiguities and lack of transparency surrounding mainland China's official policies and processes related to arms exports. The principles which guide Beijing's official arms exports policy are sufficiently flexible to justify almost any export on the grounds that it contributes to the legitimate defense requirements of the recipient.
In addition, the 1997 PRC regulations covering military product exports are vague on key points such as the numbers and types of military organizations that can export arms. In aggregate, they said, "these ambiguities are particularly worrisome because they can provide opportunities for Chinese entities to illicitly export military goods without the knowledge of central government authorities."
For example, the experts pointed out, reports surfaced in early 1999 that a mainland Chinese company had sold some type of short-range missiles and long-range artillery systems to Armenia. But in response to protests by Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry, China's Ambassador to Armenia Zhu Zhaoshun and Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yingfan admitted that Beijing did not know of or approve the deal. (By Nelson Chung)
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