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Washington, Feb. 28 (CNA) If the threat of force remains as a fixture of Beijing's Taiwan policy, it sets the stage for instability in East Asia, makes any form of reunification even less probable, and adds fuel to an incipient arms race across the Taiwan Straits and the region, said a renowned American China expert Monday.

Prof. David. M. Lampton, director of The Nixon Center, wrote that the white paper is just another step in what has been a worrisome tendency over the years. For Mao Zedong, resolution of the Taiwan problem was thought about in terms of a hundred years. For Deng Xiaoping, the period was reduced to fifty years. With the present statement out of Beijing, the time horizon has been shortened further, albeit indefinitely.

At the same time, the director of Chinese studies at the Johns Hopkins University pointed out, public opinion in Taiwan is nowhere near contemplating any form of reunification.

This shortened time horizon therefore increases anxieties on Taiwan, which in turn produces more calls for US weapons sales to Taiwan, justifies firmer security guarantees from Washington, and fosters more unpredictable political rhetoric in Beijing, Taipei and Washington. "Cumulatively, this increases the chances that the situation will careen out of control," said Lampton.

Lampton, who opposes the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, also noted that Beijing's line makes it more likely that Washington will pursue policies to which the PRC is adamantly opposed, such as inclusion of Taiwan in defensive missile systems under development by the US and an increase in the level of America's security commitment to Taipei.

"In short, while the white paper has the earmarks of an ambivalent compromise coming out of Beijing, it will be perceived abroad as another ratchet up in pressure on Taiwan."

Most fundamentally, he said, this new statement reveals that Beijing sees the Taiwan problem as a combination of deterring and compelling. It wants to deter Taiwan from seeking anything that looks like independence or divided sovereignty and at the same time compel Taipei to move toward some form of negotiations.

In the end, however, with Taiwan having a political system that is responsive to the people, Beijing's ultimate job is to attract the people of Taiwan to a reunified China. "Deterrence may prevent independence, but it cannot achieve reunification, and this is where the white paper is woefully inadequate."

As for US policy, Lampton concluded, America should reiterate its commitment to a "peaceful resolution" of cross-strait issues, wait for the people of Taiwan to elect their new president next month, get both the PRC and Taiwan into the WTO where they can establish new channels of communication, and not complicate matters further for the new administrations that are to come both in Taipei and Washington. (By Nelson Chung)