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Former Ambassador Says China's Future in State of Transition

China, U.S. prepare for political, economic change in China
By Kerri DiZoglio
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington - China's future will be determined largely by how its
people and the rest of the world deal with the major transitions
facing that country today, according to James Sasser, former U.S.
Ambassador to China.

During a lecture October 26 at the George Washington Elliot School,
where Sasser is the J.B. and Maurice C. Shapiro Professor, he called
his three-and-a half years as Ambassador to China a time of
"extraordinary change in China's relationship with the United States."
According to Sasser, this new relationship will be crucial in
determining how China will emerge in the global sphere.

According to Sasser, the three major transitions under way in China
are the emergence of a new generation of leaders onto the world stage,
its integration into the world community, and its adherence to the
rule-based international system.

"The ultimate success or failure of these transitions are very much
dependent upon policymakers on both sides of the Pacific," he said.

The first major transition that Sasser defined was the emergence of a
new generation of leaders "who evolved not from revolution but rather
from bureaucratic consensus." Sasser said that as a result of a more
cosmopolitan education than their predecessors, the new leadership has
a global perspective and views economic reform as the soundest
approach to nation building. The key variable, according to Sasser, is
"whether or not they have the wisdom to entrust the destiny of China
to the people of China."

China's integration into the world community is another major
challenge facing that country, according to Sasser.

"A strong, stable, secure and prosperous Asia cannot happen without a
strong, stable, secure, prosperous and outward-looking China," he
said. Sasser added that China's willingness to engage with Taiwan and
its role in encouraging North Korea's engagement with the West show
China's interest in global leadership.

"It is no exaggeration that these events signal an end of the Cold War
in the Pacific," Sasser continued.

However, Sasser said, the success of China's new leadership and their
integration into the world community will be largely dependent upon
how they make the transition into the rule-based international
economy.

"China's future accession into the World Trade Organization will be a
force for greater openness and greater competition," Sasser said.

According to Sasser, China's transition from a planned economy to a
market economy is being accompanied by political liberalization.
"While the process is slow," Sasser said, "it is occurring, and China
is more free today than ever before."

Sasser said that although the U.S. role in the success or failure of
China's transition may be indirect, the United States can help to move
China in the right direction by adopting policies that increase
cooperation and hasten economic change.

The road to President Clinton's vision of a "constructive strategic
partnership" begins with "constructive civil engagement," he said.

(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site:
http://usinfo.state.gov)