Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=12/20/2000

NUMBER=5-48679

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=YES

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: In January, Taiwan plans to open its first direct links to mainland China as part of a test to see if even more direct contact is feasible. But despite what outsiders may see as a step toward reconciliation between Taipei and Beijing, analysts say cross strait relations are at a stalemate that is likely to continue for a while. V-O-A's Stephanie Mann reports.

TEXT: Taiwan and China have been rivals since 1949, when the Communists won the civil war and the Nationalists fled to the island of Taiwan. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has threatened to use force if necessary to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. The two sides have periodically tried negotiating, but with no real progress. Beijing halted the last effort at dialogue in 1995, after Taiwan's then President Lee Teng-hui said the two sides should treat each other as equal states. In March, a new president was elected - Chen Shui-bian, whose party has advocated Taiwan's independence, something China says it would not tolerate.

As a step toward more interaction, Taiwan now plans to allow direct trade, transportation and postal services between two of its outlying islands, Jinmen (Quemoy) and Matsu, and mainland China. China specialist June Teufel Dreyer says Taiwan's legislature approved the one-year trial for direct contacts after receiving pressure from Taiwan companies.

/// DREYER ACT ONE ///

Pressure for the so-called three small links ... direct shipping and so on comes from the business community, which is very annoyed with having to fly first to Hong Kong and then go to Beijing and ship their goods in a similar fashion.

/// END ACT ///

Beijing has criticized the plan for the so-called mini-links, saying Taiwan is not showing goodwill and is trying to avoid more comprehensive contact.

June Teufel Dreyer, a political science professor at the University of Miami, says President Chen Shui-bian is indeed being cautious, because the people of Taiwan would not tolerate it if their president agreed to Beijing's conditions. And Professor Dreyer says the question is how long China can be patient.

/// DREYER ACT TWO ///

I think that nothing short of total capitulation is going to make Beijing happy at this point. And they feel that Taiwan has been dithering around for far too long and refusing to come to the negotiating table. But the conditions that they set up for coming to the negotiating table are conditions that no leader of Taiwan can accept, because what they said is, "You have to accept the one-China principle," and they then define the "one-China" as there is only one China and its capital is in Beijing, and Taiwan is a province of that China.

/// END ACT ///

Professor Dreyer says President Chen froze the situation by his inaugural speech last May, saying he would not declare Taiwan's independence unless China attacks Taiwan. So, she says China stands by its demands and Taiwan refuses to give in.

Asia security specialist Ronald Montaperto says the status quo can continue for quite a while as long as neither side does anything drastic.

Mr. Montaperto, a senior research professor at the National Defense University in Washington, says Chen Shui-bian has many domestic pressures and needs to build political support for his economic and social agenda. Therefore, Mr. Montaperto says, Mr. Chen wants to keep the Cross-Strait issue from becoming a crisis and from becoming a priority (front-burner) issue right now.

/// MONTAPERTO ACT ONE ///

The reason that Chen Shui-bian wants to get the cross-strait issue off the front burner is so that he can deal and he can build his own political support within Taiwan, because before he can do anything at all in a major way on cross strait relations, he has to overcome the fact that he was elected with 39 percent of the vote, that he does not have a majority in the legislature, and he has to make up for some of those difficulties.

/// END ACT ///

Professor Montaperto says China is worried it can not trust President Chen, so Beijing is doing all it can to frustrate Mr. Chen's effort to increase his political support.

/// MONTAPERTO ACT TWO ///

Because the Chinese remain suspicious, it seems to me what they have done is to adopt a tactic of trying to go around Chen Shui-bian. They refuse to talk with him directly, refuse to have anything to do with him directly. And they've begun a process of inviting opposition figures such as Kuomintang Nationalist Party leaders to visit.

/// END ACT///

Mr. Montaperto says China seems to be waiting for Taiwan's legislature elections expected late in 2001. Then, he says they hope that when Mr. Chen's term as president expires, somebody else who they might trust more will be elected.

/// REST OPT ///

Meanwhile, some observers say China is trying to win over popular support on Taiwan by a new museum exhibit that has just opened in Taipei. Seventeen of the famed terracotta warriors from China's Shaanxi province are on display for three months. In the past, only one or two of the two-thousand-year old figures have been sent to foreign museums for display, and the organizers say this is the largest group ever displayed outside the mainland. They say they wanted to show more to the people of Taiwan because they share the same ancestors.

The terracotta warriors were excavated from the tomb of emperor Qin Shihuang, who is credited with having been the first ruler to unify China. (Signed)

NEB/SM/PLM