DATE=7/14/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=CHINA - ISRAEL - AWACS
NUMBER=5-46670
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
Reissue with number
// EDITORS: Note references to Southeast Asia, Russia,
and Britain. //
INTRO: Israel's decision to stop the sale of an
airborne radar system to China may force Beijing to
look elsewhere for the sophisticated military
equipment. But correspondent Stephanie Mann reports
some analysts in the United States believe the deal
with Israel may not be completely dead.
TEXT: Several years ago, when China began looking to
acquire an airborne warning and control system,
Israel, Russia and Britain were competing for the
sale. In the end, Israel won the bid and decided to
cooperate with Russia, which was to provide the
Ilyushin aircraft while Israel provided the radar
system.
The 250-million dollar deal for the Phalcon radar
system was to be only the first phase. Security
analyst Jing Dong Yuan says the deal gave China an
option to purchase more planes equipped with the
sophisticated radar.
///YUAN ACT ///
This will be only one. And China has shown some
interest, and probably Israel has agreed that in
case China is satisfied with this one, it will
purchase another three to seven, according to
the reports. So, it is a gradual step toward
enhancing its overall command control and
communication and intelligence capability.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Yuan, a senior researcher with the East Asia Non-
Proliferation Program at the Monterey Institute of
International Studies in California, says the Phalcon
system would not have changed the balance of power
between China and Taiwan in terms of military
capability. But he says China's command control and
intelligence would have greatly benefited. He says it
would have extended the People's Liberation Army's
surveillance capabilities from less than 100
kilometers to about 400 kilometers.
The director of the Asian Studies Center at the
Heritage Foundation in Washington, Larry Wortzel
agrees. He says the Phalcon airborne radar system
would have allowed China to look out over not only the
Taiwan Strait but also the entire South China Sea.
Mr. Wortzel explains that because it is airborne, the
Phalcon system eliminates the limitations posed by the
horizon and the curvature of the earth that restrict
the range of surface radar systems.
/// WORTZEL ACT ONE //
That would have extended the range of both air-
to-surface and surface-to-surface and also air-
to-air missiles significantly for the People's
Liberation Army. They could have targeted
further and put more both potentially American
and Taiwan targets at risk, or Southeast Asian
targets at risk. It would permit the radar to
acquire a target and then to electronically send
out data to other aircraft or to the missile
itself that says, "Okay, there's your target.
Go get it."
/// END ACT ///
The United States was concerned about the increased
threat posed not only to Taiwan but also to U-S forces
if they had to intervene on Taiwan's behalf. And
Washington was putting pressure on Israel to cancel
the sale. Moreover, the renewed effort to achieve
Middle East peace means that Israel will need more U-S
aid to help implement whatever agreement may be
reached.
Larry Wortzel says Israel took all that into
consideration in deciding to halt the sale. He says
Israel must have realized it was not worth losing 17
billion dollars in U-S aid just to make one billion
dollars in a sale to China that puts American forces
at risk.
But Mr. Wortzel and Jing Dong Yuan agree the issue is
not yet finished. As Mr. Yuan points out, the Israeli
statement said the sale has been suspended. And an
Israeli spokesman said if the circumstances change,
Israel will look for ways to implement the deal with
China again.
Mr. Wortzel says he expects China to go back to
Britain to see if it is still interested in making the
sale. But in the meanwhile, he says China may
continue to work with Israel.
/// WORTZEL ACT TWO ///
I think the first thing that will happen is
probably they will hire a few Israeli scientists
quietly and secretly and pursue it in secret. I
don't think this is a dead issue.
/// END ACT ///
A specialist on Chinese military issues, June Teufel
Dreyer, agrees China will continue its efforts to
acquire an airborne warning and control system -
whether from Israel or elsewhere.
/// DREYER ACT ///
Many countries do have this kind of technology,
so I imagine the Chinese could get this through
a third country. It is also, of course,
possible for Israel to sell the Phalcon, or some
technology related thereto, to the third
country, which then transfers that to China.
And of course, if Israel has cancelled this
sale, there is still nothing to prevent Israel
from transferring the technology directly to
China or for Israel aircraft technicians to turn
up in China as advisors. So, I don't think
we've seen the last of this.
/// END ACT ///
Ms. Teufel Dreyer is a political science professor at
the University of Miami. She says China sees the U-S
pressure that prompted Israel to suspend the Phalcon
deal as U-S interference in Sino-Israeli relations.
And she says that may make Beijing wary of cutting any
new overt deals with Israel.
// REST OPTIONAL //
Professor Teufel Dreyer points out that Israel has
transferred technology to China for many years, even
before the two countries had diplomatic relations when
China was still openly supporting Israel's Middle East
adversaries.
Larry Wortzel says Israel and Britain must consider
their desire for defense cooperation with the United
States when deciding whether to sell military
equipment to China. He says the United States will
certainly question its future cooperation with any
country if there's a possibility that cooperation may
end up helping a country like China, which has made
threats of force against U-S ships. (Signed)
NEB/SMN/PW
14-Jul-2000 11:17 AM EDT (14-Jul-2000 1517 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
