DATE=4/6/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=CHINA TRADE VOTE
NUMBER=5-46091
BYLINE=PAULA WOLFSON
DATELINE=CAPITOL HILL
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The countdown has begun for what may be the
most crucial vote of the year in the U-S Congress.
During the week of May 22nd, the House of
Representatives will act on an agreement with China
that calls for permanent normal trade relations with
the United States -- something the diplomats call P-N-
T-R. As V-O-A's Paula Wolfson reports, it's likely to
be a close vote complicated by election year politics.
TEXT: When House Republican leader Dick Armey speaks
of the China trade vote, he sounds confident.
/// Armey Act ///
We know that free and open trade will help make
China an open and free society. We will pass P-
N-T-R and we will do it this year.
/// End Act ///
House Republicans are overwhelmingly pro-business and
pro-trade. They know this is a big issue for party
supporters in corporate America.
Virginia Congressman Tom Davis coordinates
congressional campaigns for the Republicans.
/// Davis Act ///
I think the trade issue with China is probably
the most significant issue we will face this
year. It will have some bearing on the
congressional elections, but I think more long
term, it will have a bearing on the American
economy and on what happens with world peace.
/// End Act ///
The Republicans say they can provide the bulk of the
votes needed (a simple majority of those voting) to
grant China permanent normal trade status, instead of
subjecting Beijing to annual renewals. But they are
urging the White House to bring in as many as 100
House Democrats in a show of bipartisan support.
Their request dramatizes a problem that has plagued
the Clinton administration's trade policy from the
very beginning. Mr. Clinton has repeatedly said that
trade is the last great dividing issue for the
Democrats. He faces tough opposition within his own
party. And it emanates from the very top of the
House Democratic leadership.
/// Bonior Tease Act ///
You can not have a free market without free
people.
/// End Act ///
Congressman David Bonior of Michigan is the number two
Democrat in the House of Representatives. He says
opponents of the China agreement believe in trade and
the benefits it can bring.
/// Bonior Act ///
But we also believe in human rights. We believe
in environmental protections. We believe in the
responsible use of nuclear technology. And we
believe there can not be free trade unless there
is political freedom as well.
/// End Act ///
Once again, core constituencies are coming into play.
For Republicans, it is the business community. For
the Democrats, it is organized labor. Union leaders
fear a flood cheap imports produced by low-wage
foreign workers will cost American jobs.
Will Marshall is a long-time observer of Democratic
Party politics:
/// Marshall Act ///
Labor has a lot of money and organizational
clout in campaigns. And Democrats don't want to
be deprived of these assets.
/// End Act ///
Mr. Marshall is allied with a group of centrist
Democrats called the Democratic Leadership Council.
He is their specialist on trade matters. And he
predicts the pressure on House Democrats will increase
in the days and weeks leading up to the China vote.
/// Marshall Act ///
I think labor has become even more militant
against trade-expanding agreements since the
debacle in Seattle when the W-T-O [World Trade
Organization] ministerial there ended in
failure. I think labor was energized by that.
They were part of a broad coalition of people
who were protesting against the World Trade
Organization in Seattle. So they feel like they
are on a roll [EDS: they can't lose].
/// End Act ///
But Mr. Marshall stresses the leaders of the labor
movement are also realists. He says they have an
agenda that goes far beyond trade agreements, and they
know it will never advance with the Republicans in
power in Congress.
/// Marshall Act ///
...and to some extent they are trying to bluff a
lot of Democrats into thinking they would really
try to hurt them if they buck labor on the China
vote, but in the end they won't do that because
they have a higher interest in making sure
Democrats regain [control of] Congress.
/// End Act ///
A sigh of relief was heard at the White House when
House Speaker Dennis Hastert announced the date for
the China vote. The administration had feared the
Republican leadership would schedule the debate much
later in the legislative session. Instead, it will
occur roughly five-and-a-half months before election
day - enough time, perhaps, for rifts to heal and for
attention to shift to other issues. . (signed)
NEB/PW/JP
06-Apr-2000 15:24 PM EDT (06-Apr-2000 1924 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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